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CHRIS HOLDER Over and Exactly 8 @ 1/1 & 9/2

8+1 from 4 on his first visit to the NSS this season.

7+1 from 3 on his second visit to the NSS (Meeting abandoned before his 4th ride against 2 reserves)

I think Chris will get 5 rides this afternoon with no Woffinden in the side, Chris isn't in Heat 13 either so I'm happy to back him at a fair price when riding in the engine room.

 

BELLE VUE -8.0 @ 1/1 (I think it's a fair price on offer here, I don't see Howarth or the reserves doing much and it's always difficult to win races against Bewley & Kurtz around the NSS, I just think BV look stronger in every department this afternoon)

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Posted (edited)

Unlucky this afternoon, Logic was right on the Handicap but I don't think anyone saw Picko's performance coming that ended up ruining both bets.

We go again tonight.

 

JOSH PICKERING Over 9 @ 10/11 (He's now had two worldie performances on the spin 10 from 5 or 6 rides should be a formality but this is gambling after all)

CHRIS HOLDER Over 11 @ 1/1 (I know he's riding with Picko three times but one of them is going to get 6 rides for sure and the other 5, I think both of them will go over tonight)

Edited by TTT
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28 minutes ago, Bald Bloke said:

Gone with Picko over and ex 9 @ 1.90 and 5.50. Will have at least 5 rides, and is on fire.

GL if having a bet.

Same here.

Has been riding like Jason Doyle on a British track barely dropping a point.

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Posted (edited)

I'm on Bewley Over 11 @ 10/11 as well now.

It's R/R for Kurtz so Dan will take 6 rides maybe even 7 (Inc Tac) imo.

Edited by TTT
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A straight Ipswich, Kings Lynn, Leicester treble pays 9/2

All meetings will be close but hoping all the 46-44's land as above, worth it for a small play 

 

Kvech at +2 over Jack is the only other place ill get involved, Cant see Sheffield dropping that far behind they need a tactical and also cannot see Jack venturing out in Heat 15 as the GP is this weekend so Kvech with 6 rides and a 2 point start ought to be outscoring Holder

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Did anybody have Sheffield finishing top but playing 3rd place Belle Vue in the semis? Or 2nd placed Leicester drawing 4th placed Ippo? And it all being decided not on the track but behind closed doors by a bunch of crooks!

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William Hill still haven't updated their odds after GP Qualifying, Zmarzlik was one of the slowest in Qualifying so it's worth taking him on even though he'll more than likely get it together tonight.

I've backed the following 3 riders, Lambert 1st in Qualifying (8/1 Hills), Janowski 3rd in Qualifying as well as a Wroclaw rider (12/1 Hills) and Bewley 6th in Qualifying (Boosted 6/1 with 365), Wroclaw rider and the last time he won the British GP in Cardiff he went on to win the Wroclaw GP as well so maybe it's a good omen.

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Petty decent night betting on the SGP 

On Bet365 riders points 

Huckenbeck 3+

Lebedevs 6+

Dudek +7

Janowski +7

Madsen under 10 

Then Dudek vs Kubera 

and had Vaculik vs Lindgren 

 

Missed out on Holder and Kvech points return. Didn't back a rider to win too many tabs open trying to get Oasis tickets., 

 

 

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I'm seeing some value tonight in Ipswich riders for a number of reasons.

King isn't fully fit after last night so IRR could come into play and Ipswich could be down to 5 riders, If that does happen then realistically they've got 3 options for Heat 15 Ellis, Rew & Brennan as D. Thompson will surely have used up 7 rides by then so the bets I'll place will be the following.

 

SHEFFIELD -4 @ 5/6 (I think King will withdraw early and that'll be that for the Witches)

ELLIS Over 9 @ 5/4 (Statistically Ippo's strongest rider around Foxhall out of the riders who are riding tonight, 5 Rides Minimum and you'd think he'll go in Heat 15 as well against a weakened Sheffield pairing because I can't see the Holder brothers going in Heat 15 for sure considering the title will already be won by then with both riders having important meetings at the weekend in the GP and Poland respectively)

BRENNAN Over 10 @ 5/6 (Has been very strong around Foxhall this season, Double figures on his last two visits riding at No.5 and I see Tom going in Heat 15 alongside Ellis, I think certain big Sheffield riders will take it easy after the trophy has been wrapped up as well by not taking any risks, I can honestly see a Ht 15 pairing of Howarth and a reserve if Picko doesn't want Heat 15)

Edited by TTT
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Gate 1 was the best gate in last night's SGP2.

Zmarzlik was one of the slowest in qualifying (13th) I think he's worth taking on again tonight.

The fastest in qualifying was the very consistent Michelsen followed by Bewley in 2nd, Vaculik 3rd & Lambert in 4th.

Based on riders draws and form I shall back the following bets, All In-Form riders who are currently 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the overall standings.

 

£17.75 Stake altogether to get a return of just over £50.00 on any of the three winning.

 

FREDDIE LINDGREN @ 6/1 with William Hill (4 GP Podium finishes in his last 5 GP's so the value has to be snapped up imo)

ROBERT LAMBERT @ 8/1 with bet365 (Finishes with 1 x Gate 2 and 2 x Gates 1's so if he can get 3 points on the board early then you'd fancy Robert to get 7-8 points off the inside gates in his last 3 rides, Robert has reached 3 of the last 4 GP Finals as well and he's surely got to win one soon because you cant keep on falling at the final hurdle)

MIKKEL MICHELSEN @ 12/1 with William Hill (Fastest in Qualifying, 2 Gates 1's and 3 inside Gates altogether should see him put in another solid display at GP level, Has made the top 8 in 6 straight GP's including 2 GP finals in his last 3 starts)

Edited by TTT
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Got to be some value in Fricke under 15 @ 5/4

Going to have to have 6 rides to get over 15 and as the result should be a forgone conclusion by heat 15 no guarantee Fricke will venture out given there is a GP this weekend. Also add in that he could easily finish behind team mate Lawson in any of their 4 rides together  

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4 hours ago, Heathcote said:

Got to be some value in Fricke under 15 @ 5/4

Going to have to have 6 rides to get over 15 and as the result should be a forgone conclusion by heat 15 no guarantee Fricke will venture out given there is a GP this weekend. Also add in that he could easily finish behind team mate Lawson in any of their 4 rides together  

Good call.

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Going in early on tomorrow's GP

I think Zmarzlik got lucky in Riga with a decision falling his way in Ht 1, Didn't look in control all night either and luck just feel his way on the night, Bartek still didn't look like his normal self over both legs against Torun in the Ekstraliga SF because he was getting beat way too many times, Just 2 race wins in 9 Heats over both legs)

 

FREDDIE LINDGREN @ 11/2 bet365 (Ultra consistent, 4 GP finals on the spin now, He won't give in until it's mathmatically sealed for Zmarzlik)

ROBERT LAMBERT @ 6/1 William Hill (I'll keep backing him until the inevitable happens, By far one of the fastest riders at every GP but he keeps making a mess of the starts but one night he's finally going to make one stick, Should've won in Vojens last year after topping the charts in the 20 regular heats with 13 points from 5 rides, Has finished 2nd and 4th in his Vojens GP's)

DAN BEWLEY @ 8/1 bet365 (Always fast in Qualifying that leads to odds shortening so it's best to back him before Qualifying if you're intrested in keeping Dan onside in GP's, 2 Podiums in his last 3 GP's including a win in Cardiff)

JACK HOLDER @ 33/1 William Hill (Out of form in the GP's but bet365 are only going 12/1 so the 33's has to be snapped up and Jack has done well around Vojens in the past, Finished 3rd last year in Vojens and he's also won the SoN's around Vojens with Fricke for Australia)

Edited by TTT
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Tend to look at Total riders points or rider match ups 

Wozniak 2+ he usually has one good ride. 

Zmarzlik under 11 

Nilsson 3+ hoping that he gets a dominant inside gate and picks up points #gatingtart 

Kvech 3+ usually has one decent ride. 

Holder under 9 has been out of form in the SGP recently 

Lebedev 7+ big ask but has every chance. 

Gone for Thomsen e/w 16/1 

 

 

 

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Don't agree with this price at all or the marking.

JOSH PICKERING Over 7 @ 11/10 (Got 15+1 on his last visit to BV, Ever since Josh has got that new engine he's been in the form of his life, Will be on a buzz full of confidence after winning the CLRC at the weekend)

Last 7 scores in his top flight British fixtures are the following.

9+2

18+2

15+1 (Away to BV)

9+2 (Home to BV)

7

17+1

14+2

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Tough meeting to call tonight as i think it all depends which Bomber turns up, prime play off Bomber then Sheffield could be hitting 40+ points, get the season long Oxford Bomber who has struggled to hit double figures anywhere in the top league and Belle Vue could be taking a 16pt lead to Owlerton...as such wont be touching the handicaps for the meeting but a couple of plays

Vuolas under 6, ok he wins heat 2 but barring an EF how does he get 4 more points, given he meets both Holders Pickering and Howarth in 2 out of his 3 remaining rides

Edwards Under 4, as per above, comes second in heat 2 and then where does he get another point

Mulford over Gilkes, Jake comes third in heat 2, Dan doesnt score a point all night

Blodorn over 5 and also over Howarth. More than capable of winning Heat 1 and 8, where he meets Howarth in both heats, plus Kyle nursing an injury and hasn't gone great around the NSS all season, only scoring 12 points in 3 separate meetings.

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Jason Edwards under and ex 4 @ 2.20 and 4.50.

I can't see how he can score more than 4 tonight. Even if he takes one of Gilkes rides in ht 4, or ht 8 (if allowed a reserve switch in 8).

Added Picko over 7 and ex 7 @ 2.10 and 5.50. Don't think he would put his new motor in for a service before such an important meeting. Well hope not:D

 

Edited by Bald Bloke
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