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2024 Premiership Predictions


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I would say a home advantage would be more prominent, when the so called 'set-up' is critical ? (prominent being the operative word....)

Eastbourne/Belle Vue being the 2 extremes......

That's just my opinion....I have no technical knowledge to add any weight to this, just 50 odd years supporting the sport!

 

Edited by GiveusaB
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Belle Vue have a huge home advantage. Doyle for example struggled for pace there last year by his own admission and even when he made the gate, he was soon swallowed up by the likes of Kurtz and Lidsey. Set up is just as important at big fast tracks as it is for small technical ones. The Belle Vue boys are very very quick around their home track and if you’re a visiting rider there and struggling for pace, you’ll very quickly get found out. 
 

There are some tracks where you can pop out of the gate and keep faster riders behind you by being clever with the lines you take and acting as a roadblock. You have absolutely zero chance of doing that at the NSS. 

Edited by Aries
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I think the argument is that Worrall, Masters, Becker, Schlein and Cook were probably much stronger at home compared to away than most riders in the league due to riding a unique track every Monday and they will struggle to replicate that scoring at their new tracks. As has been said BV had a good side hence the big wins last year. Every track has an advantage for its home riders but you've got to have a decent side with experience of the circuit, and it needs to be prepared the same every week. 

I don't see Leicester being as successful as others do but we shall see. 

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23 hours ago, phillipsr said:

I think Leicester look strong BUT the whole Wolves from last year thing is a bit of a myth i think... Wolves had the biggest home advantage of everyone and that contributed massively to where they finished last year.. that wont be the case this year.. Not sure they look as good as some think 

 

45 minutes ago, Bagpuss said:

I think the argument is that Worrall, Masters, Becker, Schlein and Cook were probably much stronger at home compared to away than most riders in the league due to riding a unique track every Monday and they will struggle to replicate that scoring at their new tracks. As has been said BV had a good side hence the big wins last year. Every track has an advantage for its home riders but you've got to have a decent side with experience of the circuit, and it needs to be prepared the same every week. 

I don't see Leicester being as successful as others do but we shall see. 

Of the top three Leicester have just signed from Wolves, Douglas actually had a higher GSA away from Monmore last season than at home over all meetings, and Masters rode at number 1. He won’t be anywhere near it at Leicester with Fricke there. They look a cut above to me. We’ll see. 

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16 hours ago, heathen52 said:

Hey your biased :D.

LOL :D .....I certainly don't have blind faith!

As its a prediction thread? I predict that B'ham will never have a competitive side so long as Laurence Rogers pulls the strings!

I watched the 'Club' interview with 'Pawliki'.....it wasn't very inspiring! (albeit, his English is poor.....better than my Polish though :D)

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5 hours ago, GiveusaB said:

LOL :D .....I certainly don't have blind faith!

As its a prediction thread? I predict that B'ham will never have a competitive side so long as Laurence Rogers pulls the strings! :D)

If he does then it will be more by luck than judgement..

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On 2/6/2024 at 10:16 AM, Aries said:

 

Of the top three Leicester have just signed from Wolves, Douglas actually had a higher GSA away from Monmore last season than at home over all meetings, and Masters rode at number 1. He won’t be anywhere near it at Leicester with Fricke there. They look a cut above to me. We’ll see. 

Fricke is a better  rider than Masters...Dougy rides Leicester  better than M.G so should rise his ave ...

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The obvious standout team is the Tigers from Owlerton, two former World Champions and a rider who would have made the podium in the GP series this year but for injuries.  However they are surely the oldest top 5 in the league, with Pickering being the spring chicken of the top 5 at 27.  Not sure there is much room for improvement from any of them and the reserve pairing could well struggle.
Ipswich have a great top 2 but can they maintain the standards they set last season?  Rew should improve but is unlikely to get anytime at reserve this season and the sophomore slump condition could hamper him.  Two inexperienced reserves again.  Can Ellis get back to where he was a few years ago is the question.  I think the Witches will struggle to finish in the top 4 of the league but if they do they're dangerous in the play-offs, like last year they came from nowhere to deny Belle Vue a spot in the final.
Considering his progress in the GP's in my opinion Bewley had a fairly poor season for the Aces so should improve his starting figure and must surely be better away from home in 2024.  No more can realistically be expected from Kurtz following a solid season last year.  I'm not sure on Lidsey, he had Wright backing him up all last year but won't have that next season, you'd think he should improve further with more experience of British racing.  I didn't realise Cook is as old as he is.  Blodorn won't be swapping between reserve at top 5 this year but is good at the NSS and is getting better away.  Mountain has more experience than those in the same position as him at Foxhall & Owlerton but lacks their potential.
I like the Leicester septet, Fricke is as good as anyone except Sayfutdinov on the GB tracks and the 4 others in the top 5 should all average over 7.  Kemp seemed to have a new lease of life at Beaumont Park having missed out on a spot in GB at the start of last season and maybe he will finally start to reach his potential.
The Stars are another team that don't really appear to have a weak link in their septet.  Basso seemed to suffer from second season syndrome in a struggling Panthers team last year, Tarasenko & Wojdylo also rejuvenated the Alwalton team mid season last year but how well will they adapt to a different home circuit?   Musielak has been excellent for Sheffield in the last two years, but as a Tiger with Jack Holder also in the line-up the expectation of being the #1 wasn't completely on his shoulders where as it is at Saddlebow Rd.  Rowe like Kemp needs to start realising his potential.
The Oxford team has too many question marks for my liking to be considered as potential table toppers but will be in the mix for the play-offs, Janowski is a great addition to the league but hasn't been at his best in recent GP series, it is probably a year (or two) too early for Boughen but fair play to Oxford for giving him the opportunity I hope it doesn't hamper his progress.  Klindt & Tungate always blow hot & cold.
Sadly Birmingham seem a fair way off the other teams in terms of strength, it is a big ask for Pawlicki & Milik to come in as a top two when both haven't ridden in the UK for many years and there is no obvious third heat leader to back them up, Brennan may grow into that role or Lampart could hit the ground flying.  One thing is for sure the Brummies will have strength at reserve all year, it should be Flint's final year as a RS.

Table prediction:
Leicester
Belle Vue
Kings Lynn
Sheffield
Oxford
Ipswich
Birmingham

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16 hours ago, Col said:
Table prediction:
Leicester
Belle Vue
Kings Lynn
Sheffield
Oxford
Ipswich
Birmingham

Everyone is of course entitled to their opinion, but predicting Ipswich to finish second bottom is a bit of a bonkers take. In the words of Les Dennis, if Ipswich finish second bottom I’ll give you the money meself 

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28 minutes ago, Aries said:

Everyone is of course entitled to their opinion, but predicting Ipswich to finish second bottom is a bit of a bonkers take. In the words of Les Dennis, if Ipswich finish second bottom I’ll give you the money meself 

I don’t think Col likes Ipswich very much. He labelled the Ipswich team “the worst top flight team ever put together” and had them stone last by some distance in 2019 before they knocked Poole out in the semis and finished runners up to Swindon. 

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Why on earth do you think I have a problem with the Witches?  I don't think their team building strategy with two riders consuming almost half their allocated points allowance is a great idea but I've been wrong before.  My only visit to the EoESg last year was to see Ipswich!  And my first speedway memory is of John Cook almost scoring a maximum at Dudley Wood (beating Penhall & Gundersen) but being denied it by Phil Collins passing him on the final bend of heat 13.

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47 minutes ago, Col said:

Why on earth do you think I have a problem with the Witches?  I don't think their team building strategy with two riders consuming almost half their allocated points allowance is a great idea but I've been wrong before.  My only visit to the EoESg last year was to see Ipswich!  And my first speedway memory is of John Cook almost scoring a maximum at Dudley Wood (beating Penhall & Gundersen) but being denied it by Phil Collins passing him on the final bend of heat 13.

I'm sure Cradley won many accolades with the strength of 2 riders? (Hancock/Hamill) 

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You can’t dismiss Ipswich on the basis of them having just the best top two and little else. Having the best top two (and they’re comfortably the best top two in the league) is huge, but they have no mugs lower down either. King and Ellis in the engine room at 3 and 4 is also strong, they’ve swapped Hume for Jenkins at reserve which is an upgrade, and they also have one of the best rising stars in the league in Dan Thompson. They’ll be the bookies favourites for a reason and tipping them to finish second bottom shows a lack of Speedway knowledge quite frankly as much as everyone is entitled to an opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, Aries said:

You can’t dismiss Ipswich on the basis of them having just the best top two and little else. Having the best top two (and they’re comfortably the best top two in the league) is huge, but they have no mugs lower down either. King and Ellis in the engine room at 3 and 4 is also strong, they’ve swapped Hume for Jenkins at reserve which is an upgrade, and they also have one of the best rising stars in the league in Dan Thompson. They’ll be the bookies favourites for a reason and tipping them to finish second bottom shows a lack of Speedway knowledge quite frankly as much as everyone is entitled to an opinion. 

He could end up being right but I think that would be more luck than judgement. Things can go wrong very quickly in this sport as we know so predicting anything pre-season is almost impossible. It’s a bit of fun and all we can do is predict by looking at the strengths and weaknesses of teams on paper. Mind you I’m not quite sure where Col got his paper from :D 

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53 minutes ago, GiveusaB said:

I'm sure Cradley won many accolades with the strength of 2 riders? (Hancock/Hamill) 

I don't think H&H ever won a title together!

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