2024 Premiership Predictions

[60sMonarch]

if you swap Sheffield and Belle Vue with Leicester and Kings Lynn you might be nearer the mark !

[Arch Stanton]

I have the same top 4 as Falcon. 

[MP78]

I'm inclined to agree with Falcon and Arch too... Howarth and Blodorn have both benefited (and their teams) from dropping into reserve last season, but I think its almost certain that both Sheffield and Belle Vue's number 6s will not move out of that position, which removes the possibility of either team temporarily having overpowered (for want of a better word) reserves to rack up points.  In the case of KL and Leicester, they are much more likely to have very strong number 6s for most of the season... So for me, I could quite easily see KL or Leicester making it into the top 4.  

[stevebrum]

I’d go with

1. Ipswich.  If anything they have strengthened up from the side that finished last season. Key rider Adam Ellis who surely is better than that average?

2. Leicester . Probably the strongest top 5 in the league. Very reminiscent of Wolves the past 2 seasons who made the top 4 each season as well but stronger looking. Key rider Sam Masters who has been a true number one for several seasons if he can return to that standard Leicester will probably walk the league.

3. Sheffield. Ditto a very strong top 5.  Woffy is a star attraction.  Key rider Chris Holder who has been very hot and cold when ridden here on his last couple seasons. Should add to his average tho.

4. Oxford.  Proper dark horses to me but the more I look at the line up the more impressive they look. Maciej coming back is a real boost to the league. Key rider Maciej Janowski as if he performs as the number one he is expected to then Oxford will be very potent.

5. Belle Vue. You can’t really count out the Aces who have breezed into the play offs the past few seasons. They fall just under the top 4 for me but wouldn’t be surprised if they were in the play offs.  Key rider Norick Blodorn has a lot more responsibility this season who has primarily been a reserve for huge chunks of the past 2 seasons. Also Bewley will be expected to perform like the GP rider he is as he was frankly quite disappointing in 23.

6. Kings Lynn. Power packed however only 1 real number compared to the other sides and that’s the only reason I don’t put them in the top 4. Literally everyone bar Iversen and Musielak have huge potential to increase their averages. Key rider Patryk Wojdylo who looked a real winner on his few appearances for the Panthers last season.

7. Birmingham. On paper extremely weak but is a team of proper battlers and racers. Pawlicki had his contract terminated last time he was here but is a decent standard number one. Milik has had his average massively inflated but I’d like to think he would achieve 7 at least. They need Worrall or Brennan to really step up. Lampart is a huge unknown over here. Key rider…… so hard to pick one because they all need to add to their averages so I’ll go with Tom Brennan who really needs to step into true heat leader standard for the Brummies to be a force.

[szkocjasid]

1 hour ago, stevebrum said:

2. Leicester . Probably the strongest top 5 in the league. Very reminiscent of Wolves the past 2 seasons who made the top 4 each season as well but stronger looking. Key rider Sam Masters who has been a true number one for several seasons if he can return to that standard Leicester will probably walk the league.

6. Kings Lynn. Power packed however only 1 real number compared to the other sides and that’s the only reason I don’t put them in the top 4. Literally everyone bar Iversen and Musielak have huge potential to increase their averages. Key rider Patryk Wojdylo who looked a real winner on his few appearances for the Panthers last season.

7. so hard to pick one because they all need to add to their averages so I’ll go with Tom Brennan who really needs to step into true heat leader standard for the Brummies to be a force.

It's funny when you mention Masters as a true "number one" i always think of that as a 9+ rider, but if he's been one of the top 6/7 riders in the league, then I guess he was a "true number one".

I'm assuming for Lynn you meant they only have one real number one? Which is why you didn't put them in the top 4, I guess you could argue so do Oxford & Leicester who you've placed above them?

For the Brummies even if Brennan does improve to be a heat leaders still think there too far behind the others to be anything other than 7th, hopefully could help them win a few home matches though.

On the whole, can't disagree with any of your predictions.

[szkocjasid]

2 hours ago, MP78 said:

I'm inclined to agree with Falcon and Arch too... Howarth and Blodorn have both benefited (and their teams) from dropping into reserve last season, but I think its almost certain that both Sheffield and Belle Vue's number 6s will not move out of that position, which removes the possibility of either team temporarily having overpowered (for want of a better word) reserves to rack up points.  In the case of KL and Leicester, they are much more likely to have very strong number 6s for most of the season... So for me, I could quite easily see KL or Leicester making it into the top 4.  

Do you think Leicester will have a strong number 6? Kemp is on a par with Mountain in the Champ, but agree he's quite a bit stronger than Edwards.

[Pauldoveyspeedway]

19 minutes ago, szkocjasid said:

Do you think Leicester will have a strong number 6? Kemp is on a par with Mountain in the Champ, but agree he's quite a bit stronger than Edwards.

Kemp is a talent  ...just needs to show it ...

[GiveusaB]

16 hours ago, Pauldoveyspeedway said:

Kemp is a talent  ...just needs to show it ...

Kemp has the ability, but lacks 'mentality and physicality' IMO!

[MP78]

17 hours ago, szkocjasid said:

Do you think Leicester will have a strong number 6? Kemp is on a par with Mountain in the Champ, but agree he's quite a bit stronger than Edwards.

Ahh… I think it’s about now that I should tell you all that I meant to type Oxford not Leicester… sorry all, my mistake! 
I do think Kemp will do well this year, but I was in fact referring to Oxford in my original post - sorry again!

[stevebrum]

On 1/29/2024 at 4:03 PM, szkocjasid said:

It's funny when you mention Masters as a true "number one" i always think of that as a 9+ rider, but if he's been one of the top 6/7 riders in the league, then I guess he was a "true number one".

I'm assuming for Lynn you meant they only have one real number one? Which is why you didn't put them in the top 4, I guess you could argue so do Oxford & Leicester who you've placed above them?

For the Brummies even if Brennan does improve to be a heat leaders still think there too far behind the others to be anything other than 7th, hopefully could help them win a few home matches though.

On the whole, can't disagree with any of your predictions.

By definition anyone who finishes in the top 10 yearly averages several seasons running can be classed as a true number 1. However I fully agree that I also consider riders with a 9 plus averages as a real definition of a number one.

Valid point on the real number one comment. Think it’s splitting hairs on the rest of the Oxford and Leicester teams who have riders more proven to have achieved a higher average. If anything KL have massive potential.

Think everyone has the Brummies down as 7th by a very large margin!  Very much an unknown quantity compared to the other 6 teams. 

Edited January 31 by stevebrum
Missing number

[szkocjasid]

11 hours ago, MP78 said:

Ahh… I think it’s about now that I should tell you all that I meant to type Oxford not Leicester… sorry all, my mistake! 
I do think Kemp will do well this year, but I was in fact referring to Oxford in my original post - sorry again!

That makes a lot more sense, agree with that

[Aries]

Leicester look the pick here for me. Someone earlier in the thread made a good point, Leicester have the Wolves top 3 from last year, a Wolves team that finished second in the table. And they have added Max Fricke and Richard Lawson on top of that! That’s potent. They’ve also been smart and used all the points gained from Kemp’s 25% reduction, something Ipswich haven’t done with Jenkins 25% reduction. Ipswich will still join them in the top 4 though and pretty comfortably this time. They’ve fixed the Riss issue with Ellis and they’ve also got one of the better rising stars fit in Dan Thompson. Finally having a rising star that could contribute in meetings turned their season around last year. 
 

Oxford will also comfortably make the top four IMO. The only question mark with them is the fitness of a few returning injured riders. They could be slow burners if it takes them a while to get up to speed but if they do, I expect them to be strong. Solid all through the top 5 and the best reserve in the league in Kerr. 
 

The last spot isn’t quite as clear cut. Of the remaining sides I think Lynn look the best. Big fan of Musielak and he’ll do a good job for them at #1. Look to have Wotsit on a bargain average going by his performances for Peterborough last year and I’d expect him to swap with Palm Toft after the first change in averages meaning Lynn also will have a strong reserve all year. 
 

Not convinced with either Sheffield or Belle Vue this time. Belle Vue will need Bewley to be the 9+ rider we know he’s capable of being, rather than the 8 point rider we saw last year. If he steps it up a gear, Belle Vue have a potent top 3 with Kurtz and Lidsey that could see them challenge for a play off spot. Bewley the key here. 
 

Sheffield have the weakest reserve pairing in the league, which is a problem when you have a rider or two in the top 5 who are a bit flakey. Chris Holder isn’t the rider he once was, far from it, and neither is Woffinden. I think both will be hit and miss this year especially away from home and when they’re having one of those nights where they don’t want to know, that’s when you need your reserves to chip in to cover and this is where Sheffield will struggle. 
 

Good luck Birmingham..

[phillipsr]

1 hour ago, Aries said:

Leicester look the pick here for me. Someone earlier in the thread made a good point, Leicester have the Wolves top 3 from last year, a Wolves team that finished second in the table. And they have added Max Fricke and Richard Lawson on top of that! That’s potent. They’ve also been smart and used all the points gained from Kemp’s 25% reduction, something Ipswich haven’t done with Jenkins 25% reduction. Ipswich will still join them in the top 4 though and pretty comfortably this time. They’ve fixed the Riss issue with Ellis and they’ve also got one of the better rising stars fit in Dan Thompson. Finally having a rising star that could contribute in meetings turned their season around last year. 
 

Oxford will also comfortably make the top four IMO. The only question mark with them is the fitness of a few returning injured riders. They could be slow burners if it takes them a while to get up to speed but if they do, I expect them to be strong. Solid all through the top 5 and the best reserve in the league in Kerr. 
 

The last spot isn’t quite as clear cut. Of the remaining sides I think Lynn look the best. Big fan of Musielak and he’ll do a good job for them at #1. Look to have Wotsit on a bargain average going by his performances for Peterborough last year and I’d expect him to swap with Palm Toft after the first change in averages meaning Lynn also will have a strong reserve all year. 
 

Not convinced with either Sheffield or Belle Vue this time. Belle Vue will need Bewley to be the 9+ rider we know he’s capable of being, rather than the 8 point rider we saw last year. If he steps it up a gear, Belle Vue have a potent top 3 with Kurtz and Lidsey that could see them challenge for a play off spot. Bewley the key here. 
 

Sheffield have the weakest reserve pairing in the league, which is a problem when you have a rider or two in the top 5 who are a bit flakey. Chris Holder isn’t the rider he once was, far from it, and neither is Woffinden. I think both will be hit and miss this year especially away from home and when they’re having one of those nights where they don’t want to know, that’s when you need your reserves to chip in to cover and this is where Sheffield will struggle. 
 

Good luck Birmingham..

I think Leicester look strong BUT the whole Wolves from last year thing is a bit of a myth i think... Wolves had the biggest home advantage of everyone and that contributed massively to where they finished last year.. that wont be the case this year.. Not sure they look as good as some think 

[szkocjasid]

6 hours ago, Aries said:

Leicester look the pick here for me. Someone earlier in the thread made a good point, Leicester have the Wolves top 3 from last year, a Wolves team that finished second in the table. And they have added Max Fricke and Richard Lawson on top of that! That’s potent. They’ve also been smart and used all the points gained from Kemp’s 25% reduction, something Ipswich haven’t done with Jenkins 25% reduction. Ipswich will still join them in the top 4 though and pretty comfortably this time. They’ve fixed the Riss issue with Ellis and they’ve also got one of the better rising stars fit in Dan Thompson. Finally having a rising star that could contribute in meetings turned their season around last year. 
 

Oxford will also comfortably make the top four IMO. The only question mark with them is the fitness of a few returning injured riders. They could be slow burners if it takes them a while to get up to speed but if they do, I expect them to be strong. Solid all through the top 5 and the best reserve in the league in Kerr. 
 

The last spot isn’t quite as clear cut. Of the remaining sides I think Lynn look the best. Big fan of Musielak and he’ll do a good job for them at #1. Look to have Wotsit on a bargain average going by his performances for Peterborough last year and I’d expect him to swap with Palm Toft after the first change in averages meaning Lynn also will have a strong reserve all year. 
 

Not convinced with either Sheffield or Belle Vue this time. Belle Vue will need Bewley to be the 9+ rider we know he’s capable of being, rather than the 8 point rider we saw last year. If he steps it up a gear, Belle Vue have a potent top 3 with Kurtz and Lidsey that could see them challenge for a play off spot. Bewley the key here. 
 

Sheffield have the weakest reserve pairing in the league, which is a problem when you have a rider or two in the top 5 who are a bit flakey. Chris Holder isn’t the rider he once was, far from it, and neither is Woffinden. I think both will be hit and miss this year especially away from home and when they’re having one of those nights where they don’t want to know, that’s when you need your reserves to chip in to cover and this is where Sheffield will struggle. 
 

Good luck Birmingham..

Can't disagree with anything you've said, good comments

[stevebrum]

8 hours ago, phillipsr said:

I think Leicester look strong BUT the whole Wolves from last year thing is a bit of a myth i think... Wolves had the biggest home advantage of everyone and that contributed massively to where they finished last year.. that wont be the case this year.. Not sure they look as good as some think 

Yet Belle Vue had much more larger home wins because of their massive home advantage!

Quite a lot of close calls at MG and some defeats which kind of tells its own story on this mythical massive home advantage.

Truth is most riders could handle MG very well. 

[tellboy]

15 minutes ago, stevebrum said:

Yet Belle Vue had much more larger home wins because of their massive home advantage!

Quite a lot of close calls at MG and some defeats which kind of tells its own story on this mythical massive home advantage.

Truth is most riders could handle MG very well. 

Belle Vue,massive home advantage.Get real Steve,Belle Vue is the best race track in the country.They just had a very good team.I, along with probably 90% of fans would probably choose the NSS over Monmore to watch speedway if they had to choose one.

[Noelinho]

3 minutes ago, tellboy said:

Belle Vue,massive home advantage.Get real Steve,Belle Vue is the best race track in the country.They just had a very good team.I, along with probably 90% of fans would probably choose the NSS over Monmore to watch speedway if they had to choose one.

Having a racetrack where people can pass “easily” doesn’t mean there’s no home advantage. People say the same about Ashfield in the Championship. You can have a very raceable track and still have a good home advantage, the tricks are just less obvious.

[stevebrum]

24 minutes ago, tellboy said:

Belle Vue,massive home advantage.Get real Steve,Belle Vue is the best race track in the country.They just had a very good team.I, along with probably 90% of fans would probably choose the NSS over Monmore to watch speedway if they had to choose one.

If the track wasn’t such a massive home advantage then they wouldn’t steam roll teams season after season. Belle Vue having the biggest home advantage has nothing to do with it being the best race track in the country.  That’s completely irrelevant. That wasn’t even a point.

Why you have turned it into a which is the best race track is baffling as that wasn’t even a point I made!

The myth that wolves had this massive home advantage is disproved by results over the years. Lots of last heat deciders with points on the line all the way thru the meeting. You wouldn’t get that if the home advantage was that great. 
It’s completely irrelevant whether you or anyone rated MG as a good race track or not.  The point was about the biggest home advantage. 

[tellboy]

14 minutes ago, stevebrum said:

If the track wasn’t such a massive home advantage then they wouldn’t steam roll teams season after season. Belle Vue having the biggest home advantage has nothing to do with it being the best race track in the country.  That’s completely irrelevant. That wasn’t even a point.

Why you have turned it into a which is the best race track is baffling as that wasn’t even a point I made!

The myth that wolves had this massive home advantage is disproved by results over the years. Lots of last heat deciders with points on the line all the way thru the meeting. You wouldn’t get that if the home advantage was that great. 
It’s completely irrelevant whether you or anyone rated MG as a good race track or not.  The point was about the biggest home advantage. 

So going by your logic,Lynn have the least home advantage.

[stevebrum]

2 hours ago, tellboy said:

So going by your logic,Lynn have the least home advantage.

Peterborough would be worse don’t you think?

Lynn and Panthers have had an awful line up the past couple of seasons which feeds into the fact it doesn’t matter what track advantage you have.

Aces and Wolves have had 2 of the better teams in recent seasons so are comparable with riders in their line ups that could be considered track specialists. So would say Wolves maybe have more riders with more small track specialism. You would think Wolves would be dominant at home season after season when in fact they haven’t and haven’t won by massive amounts week after week.

Team strength plays its part but I fail to see a logic that Wolves had the most advantageous track to the home riders. Stats don’t back it up.