Belle Vue 2024

[foreverblue]

On 11/12/2023 at 6:40 PM, Arch Stanton said:

Exactly. Probably THE plum signing this winter for somebody. 

Maybe but he was very poor for Sheffield.

[Arch Stanton]

59 minutes ago, foreverblue said:

Maybe but he was very poor for Sheffield.

Which is the reason he’d be a good signing. He’s proven to be far better than a 5.5 riders for many seasons now. The riders that drop more than a point off their average due to one poor year are the smartest signings to make. 
 

Doesn’t always mean they’ll put that immediately back on of course so there’s no such thing as a dead cert. If he has another poor year next year and stays on a similar average then you can maybe start to ask a few more questions. 
 

I personally think whoever signs him though will be getting a rider who’ll put a point on his starting average at a bare minimum. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Arch Stanton

[B.V 72]

On 11/12/2023 at 2:51 PM, Phil The Ace said:

So. 
 

Kurtz

blodorn

b cook

lidsey

bewley

another

bailey

 

What does that leave for the 6th spot on a 40 point limit 

3.81.Just a point to look at Phil is that B Cooks average was achieved by riding at reserve for 11 of the 24 meetings so you would think that would bump up his average. While Wrights average includes no reserve rides and a proven number 4 for 3 seasons so for 0.15 of a point we could have keep him. Hope Lemon has someone better in mind.

Edited November 15, 2023 by B.V 72

[4BenMoran]

9 hours ago, Arch Stanton said:

Which is the reason he’d be a good signing. He’s proven to be far better than a 5.5 riders for many seasons now. The riders that drop more than a point off their average due to one poor year are the smartest signings to make. 
 

Doesn’t always mean they’ll put that immediately back on of course so there’s no such thing as a dead cert. If he has another poor year next year and stays on a similar average then you can maybe start to ask a few more questions. 
 

I personally think whoever signs him though will be getting a rider who’ll put a point on his starting average at a bare minimum. 

Adam had dropped a point each year for the last two seasons, he’s definitely on the downward spiral.  He’ll be back in the points if he spends as much money on his UK kit as he does his European kit as that was 1:4 ratio last season so shows where some of the issues are 

[4BenMoran]

1 Kurtz

2 Blodorn

3 Lidsay 

4 B Cook

5 Bewley

6 Z Cook 

7 Bailey 

[Arch Stanton]

32 minutes ago, 4BM said:

Adam had dropped a point each year for the last two seasons, he’s definitely on the downward spiral.  He’ll be back in the points if he spends as much money on his UK kit as he does his European kit as that was 1:4 ratio last season so shows where some of the issues are 

To be fair dropping that point the first of the two years was probably due to him having a cracking season in ‘21 where he upped his average from 6.33 to 8.12. Still maintain he’ll put a point minimum on a starting average of 5.71. He’s a better rider than that no doubt about it. 
 

Not sure the “downward spiral” is a permanent thing either. I’d label the riders in their late 30’s early 40’s like Iversen and Andersen as on a downward spiral, but not a 27 year old personally. Riders naturally decline as they hit the Autumn of their career but Ellis surely has an awful lot more in the tank as yet.

I genuinely don’t know where he’s headed, I’ve heard the Ipswich rumour on here but I’m not sure there’s anything in that.  Wherever he ends up I’d bet my last Rolo that a change will do him good and he’ll average 7+. Time will tell. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Arch Stanton

[Arch Stanton]

37 minutes ago, 4BM said:

1 Kurtz

2 Blodorn

3 Lidsay 

4 B Cook

5 Bewley

6 Z Cook 

7 Bailey 

I make that top six 41.3 with British reduction for Bewely. Will be interesting to see what the limit is set at. I’ve heard both 40 and 41 for the top six. 

[arnieg]

1 hour ago, Arch Stanton said:

To be fair dropping that point the first of the two years was probably due to him having a cracking season in ‘21 where he upped his average from 6.33 to 8.12. Still maintain he’ll put a point minimum on a starting average of 5.71. He’s a better rider than that no doubt about  where it mattered - in Polandit. 
 

Not sure the “downward spiral” is a permanent thing either. I’d label the riders in their late 30’s early 40’s like Iversen and Andersen as on a downward spiral, but not a 27 year old personally. Riders naturally decline as they hit the Autumn of their career but Ellis surely has an awful lot more in the tank as yet.

I genuinely don’t know where he’s headed, I’ve heard the Ipswich rumour on here but I’m not sure there’s anything in that.  Wherever he ends up I’d bet my last Rolo that a change will do him good and he’ll average 7+. Time will tell. 

And his average went up in Poland, hardly evidence of a downward decline.

[IainB]

On 11/10/2023 at 1:10 PM, Phil The Ace said:

Belle Vue have confirmed Charles wright won’t be back 

Both of the scrappers out then 

[AceBelle]

4 minutes ago, iainb said:

Both of the scrappers out then 

Replacements will be more than adequate

[IainB]

1 minute ago, AceBelle said:

Replacements will be more than adequate

at scrapping? 

[Phil The Ace]

1 hour ago, Arch Stanton said:

I make that top six 41.3 with British reduction for Bewely. Will be interesting to see what the limit is set at. I’ve heard both 40 and 41 for the top six. 

I thinks it was set at 40. But maybe with the inclusion of Oxford now they may need to ride it to 41 

[Phil The Ace]

33 minutes ago, AceBelle said:

Replacements will be more than adequate

Whoooooosh 

[foreverblue]

5 hours ago, arnieg said:

And his average went up in Poland, hardly evidence of a downward decline.

He isn't in decline just can't be bothered sometimes, he certainly gives that impression a lot of the time.

[PotteringAround]

6 minutes ago, foreverblue said:

He isn't in decline just can't be bothered sometimes, he certainly gives that impression a lot of the time.

The move to Ipswich will do Ellis good.  He can't do any worse than last year and his average can only go up.

[Aries]

9 minutes ago, PotteringAround said:

The move to Ipswich will do Ellis good.  He can't do any worse than last year and his average can only go up.

Could be Birmingham?

[foreverblue]

44 minutes ago, PotteringAround said:

The move to Ipswich will do Ellis good.  He can't do any worse than last year and his average can only go up.

I agree, a home track like Ipswich would be good for him and get back to performing as we all know he should.

[proud panther]

3 hours ago, foreverblue said:

He isn't in decline just can't be bothered sometimes, he certainly gives that impression a lot of the time.

Can't agree that he can't be bothered, surely the less points he gets, the less he earns ? Would definitely have him over all these riders from abroad who are supposedly going to increase their average.

[Ben91]

Ellis on his current average should be a highly sought after commodity next season. To write him off at 27 is frankly ridiculous. 

[foreverblue]

17 hours ago, proud panther said:

Can't agree that he can't be bothered, surely the less points he gets, the less he earns ? Would definitely have him over all these riders from abroad who are supposedly going to increase their average.

Maybe not but he gives the impression of giving up if he misses the gate.