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Predictions for 2023


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13 hours ago, Noelinho said:

I wouldn't agree Ben Cook is better than Brennan right now, but I would agree he has strong upside. And whilst I like Tom a lot, he needs to do more to demonstrate progression this year. Maybe with a year under his belt at 5, we will see that. Although I struggle to understand why Glasgow are running Ben at 3 and Tom at 5 - I'd have them the other way round, personally.

 

4 hours ago, Cast1rn said:

I hope there is some thought behind it too, and here's mine. You put Brennan at 3 there's at least a whole extra point going on his average. We won't have Basso back next season we were lucky to have him this year. Leave him at 3 let his average climb and switch in August to put Tom at 3, that is if we intend to keep Tom for 2024 and I would.

Has their riding order berm announced? I certainly agree with Noelinho that I'd have the highest averaged rider (Basso) at 5.

Cast1rn I'm not sure how many matches are included in rolling aves this year, but I cam see the sense in moving riders you're planning to keep into harder positions, especially as a top 6 spot is all that's required, so even if it's the wrong thing for the team, won't hurt them!

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6 minutes ago, szkocjasid said:

 

Has their riding order berm announced? I certainly agree with Noelinho that I'd have the highest averaged rider (Basso) at 5.

 

Despite his high average of around 8.52 i don't think Basso is a heat leader in the same mould as a Lawson or a Pickering yet, he's great around Ashfield but struggles away against the top tier riders and there is a bit of a gulf in class there at the moment. That's not to say that he won't progress to that level by the end of the season as i think he is destined to be a terrific rider but right now he's a similar type of rider as Tom Brennan and Leon Flint. He's good (and VERY entertaining) but he's not a number 5 yet.

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16 minutes ago, Nickinho said:

Despite his high average of around 8.52 i don't think Basso is a heat leader in the same mould as a Lawson or a Pickering yet, he's great around Ashfield but struggles away against the top tier riders and there is a bit of a gulf in class there at the moment. That's not to say that he won't progress to that level by the end of the season as i think he is destined to be a terrific rider but right now he's a similar type of rider as Tom Brennan and Leon Flint. He's good (and VERY entertaining) but he's not a number 5 yet.

Didn't basso go unbeaten at the pairs?

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1 hour ago, Beirao said:

Agree that 3 is the easiest position for a heatleader to improve his average but why move Tom there in August when his GSA over the last ten meetings, which presumably will be used for 2024 team building, will get inflated. 

If Ben starts the season at 3, it wouldn't be hard for him to top our GSA averages and then have to go to number 1.

Did Poole rotate their heat leaders through the 3 position, stopping any one of them getting too high? May be we should do this?

Ben at one and bomber at 5 is not a bad thing.

GSA only calculated on league matches August we have 2 league matches (I think)

Poole spent all season getting kemp out of 6 ;)

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33 minutes ago, szkocjasid said:

 

Has their riding order berm announced? I certainly agree with Noelinho that I'd have the highest averaged rider (Basso) at 5.

Cast1rn I'm not sure how many matches are included in rolling aves this year, but I cam see the sense in moving riders you're planning to keep into harder positions, especially as a top 6 spot is all that's required, so even if it's the wrong thing for the team, won't hurt them!

Glasgow should make the top 6, it's having the team lined up for the playoffs In September that matters.

Toms average was made at him riding at 5 all season. If Tom rides at 3 all season puts his average to 7.7+ it'll be far more difficult to fit him in the line up for 2024.

If he stays at 5 until August maintains his average then switch him to 3 for the playoffs let him score  10+ every meeting it will not affect his GSA.

Do you think Poole would've kept Zach Cook on a 7+ average (which is what his playoff/koc scoring would've given him)?

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28 minutes ago, Nickinho said:

Despite his high average of around 8.52 i don't think Basso is a heat leader in the same mould as a Lawson or a Pickering yet, he's great around Ashfield but struggles away against the top tier riders and there is a bit of a gulf in class there at the moment. That's not to say that he won't progress to that level by the end of the season as i think he is destined to be a terrific rider but right now he's a similar type of rider as Tom Brennan and Leon Flint. He's good (and VERY entertaining) but he's not a number 5 yet.

You are completely correct his away form was less than brilliant (danyon hume scored better than him) but imagine how he will perform on a second trip around the UK. 

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35 minutes ago, Cast1rn said:

Ben at one and bomber at 5 is not a bad thing.

GSA only calculated on league matches August we have 2 league matches (I think)

Poole spent all season getting kemp out of 6 ;)

Glasgow have four meetings in August so an extra point in every one of them would put about 0.4 on Tom's average.

It's to be hoped that more than 10 meetings will be used for team building for 2024. You can have wide variations in H/A splits which affect the final figure. 

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1 hour ago, Cast1rn said:

Ben at one and bomber at 5 is not a bad thing.

GSA only calculated on league matches August we have 2 league matches (I think)

Poole spent all season getting kemp out of 6 ;)

Bomber has to be at 1 as he has the highest average even with the Brit reduction.

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1 hour ago, Cast1rn said:

Ben at one and bomber at 5 is not a bad thing.

GSA only calculated on league matches August we have 2 league matches (I think)

Poole spent all season getting kemp out of 6 ;)

 

32 minutes ago, Skidder1 said:

Bomber has to be at 1 as he has the highest average even with the Brit reduction.

It's possible they meant putting Basso at 3 will increase his average (avoiding heat 13) & his average will move above Harris'

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23 hours ago, Cast1rn said:

Glasgow should make the top 6, it's having the team lined up for the playoffs In September that matters.

Toms average was made at him riding at 5 all season. If Tom rides at 3 all season puts his average to 7.7+ it'll be far more difficult to fit him in the line up for 2024.

If he stays at 5 until August maintains his average then switch him to 3 for the playoffs let him score  10+ every meeting it will not affect his GSA.

Do you think Poole would've kept Zach Cook on a 7+ average (which is what his playoff/koc scoring would've given him)?

Don’t think 2024 is relevant at this stage.

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23 hours ago, Cast1rn said:

Glasgow should make the top 6, it's having the team lined up for the playoffs In September that matters.

Toms average was made at him riding at 5 all season. If Tom rides at 3 all season puts his average to 7.7+ it'll be far more difficult to fit him in the line up for 2024.

If he stays at 5 until August maintains his average then switch him to 3 for the playoffs let him score  10+ every meeting it will not affect his GSA.

Do you think Poole would've kept Zach Cook on a 7+ average (which is what his playoff/koc scoring would've given him)?

Maybe you should be TM!

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2 minutes ago, Cast1rn said:

Only if you'll be my right hand person :t:

Haha, if only just to annoy Gazc and Tyretrax :D. Though maybe not when Poole are there as I will be convincing them it is opposite day! ;)(I was made to watch belgua YT yesterday so got opposite day from there lol) 

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22 hours ago, szkocjasid said:

 

It's possible they meant putting Basso at 3 will increase his average (avoiding heat 13) & his average will move above Harris'

Does it not depend on how teams are constructed?

I wouldn't say riding at 3 with Vissing at 4 makes it easier to score points.

I would take racing with the reserves in three races and having the harder heat 13 (should beat the reserves most meetings whereas Vissing could beat Basso once or twice a meeting.

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12 hours ago, Gambo95 said:

Does it not depend on how teams are constructed?

I wouldn't say riding at 3 with Vissing at 4 makes it easier to score points.

I would take racing with the reserves in three races and having the harder heat 13 (should beat the reserves most meetings whereas Vissing could beat Basso once or twice a meeting.

You make a fair point, although Basso got a higher average than Brennan riding with Ostergaard who is stronger than Vissing.

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  • 1 month later...

Can make my predictions now as no matter who Birmingham sign I'll have them down for last place.

1st Plymouth
2nd - 6th Redcar, Glasgow, Scunthorpe, Poole & Edinburgh
7th Berwick
8th Oxford
9th Birmingham

I've lumped 2nd to 6th together as it makes no difference where the play-offs teams finish outside of 1st.

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7 hours ago, szkocjasid said:

Can make my predictions now as no matter who Birmingham sign I'll have them down for last place.

1st Plymouth
2nd - 6th Redcar, Glasgow, Scunthorpe, Poole & Edinburgh
7th Berwick
8th Oxford
9th Birmingham

I've lumped 2nd to 6th together as it makes no difference where the play-offs teams finish outside of 1st.

Interesting first choice. Their reserves stop me from putting them top (don't know what they are going to do!). Think I would go for Redcar. Be interesting if they can get some sort of home advantage going. 

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