Predictions for 2023

[Steve Shovlar]

6 minutes ago, Noelinho said:

Just because you can overtake doesn’t means there’s no a home track advantage. There absolutely is. The track still has plenty of options, tricks and variables that home riders know much better than visiting riders.

Also, just look at Glasgow’s home record. Aside from the playoff defeat, we’ve had a draw with Poole, which was an aberration, the results clearly show visiting teams don’t come to Ashfield and find it easy. If anything, most matches look closer on paper than in person because we try really hard to avoid winning any of the last five heats.

It’s like saying there’s no home advantage at Belle Vue when clearly there is masses of it.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Steve Shovlar

[FishersGate]

34 minutes ago, Tosh1218 said:

You’ve missed a team out as there is 9 teams in this year’s championship 

Woops scunny have a decent team as well! If they go bust half way through il be right!!! 

[FishersGate]

6 hours ago, FishersGate said:

Just a wild guess.

1.Poole - Always build great teams and the cook brothers will bring them glory again.

2. Glasgow - Fantastic team, full of entertainment. 

3. Redcar - Full of riders that are on the up. If Edwards can kick on then who knows. Great side again.

4. Plymouth - That heat leader trio is strong. Unbeaten at home I reckon for the gladiators next season. My dark horses.

5. Oxford - Best rider in the league plus a great captain. Kerr is a weapon also. I worry about the tail but Jenkins and heeps can claim a few scalps.  This one is hard to call

6. Edinburgh - They always build decent sides! If they sign cookie and get him going it's a decent side . The monarchs always provide a surprise.

7. Berwick - it's an ok team. Alot depends on Rory regaining his form and the progression with some of the younger riders. 

8. Birmingham - For all the hype from the promotion last season saying they were build an exciting play off challenging team next year...they haven't. Plus side though, they have a brilliant number 1 and hope Ben Pearson pushes on. Would like to be proved wrong .

 

All subject to change ofcourse. 

I forgot about scunny....

 

Scunthorpe to finish 6th. Decent side that. Mountain should kick on and MPT is a great rider when fit. 

[ragdoll64]

34 minutes ago, Noelinho said:

Just because you can overtake doesn’t means there’s no a home track advantage. There absolutely is. The track still has plenty of options, tricks and variables that home riders know much better than visiting riders.

Also, just look at Glasgow’s home record. Aside from the playoff defeat, we’ve had a draw with Poole, which was an aberration, the results clearly show visiting teams don’t come to Ashfield and find it easy. If anything, most matches look closer on paper than in person because we try really hard to avoid winning any of the last five heats.

What are the “tricks”and “variables” you refer to?

[Fromafar]

Think it was Danny King saying the big advantage is in preparing the starts to suit home Team.Once a decent rider gets the set up right out of the starts that’s the main thing.

[Bagpuss]

Absolutely agree, the best race tracks still have home advantage. Scunny another good example. 

[LisaColette]

55 minutes ago, Fromafar said:

Think it was Danny King saying the big advantage is in preparing the starts to suit home Team.Once a decent rider gets the set up right out of the starts that’s the main thing.

He also said a lot of riders don't like how the starts at Poole are prepped and the Poole riders always have the set ups with the start in mind. 

[eric i]

1 hour ago, Bagpuss said:

Absolutely agree, the best race tracks still have home advantage. Scunny another good example. 

Scunny's advantage comes from having a team full of racers, they score points at home and suffer away. Scunny suits the racers, you can have the right set up but you still have to be balls out committed to score the points. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by eric i

[eric i]

1. Glasgow 

2. Scunny 

3. Redcar

4. Poole 

5. Plymouth

6. Edinburgh 

7. Oxford

8. Berwick

9. Birmingham 

[Jeffo]

Very knowledgeable lot you are reading through these posts. Can't really disagree with most of your assessments of your teams chances.

My team redcar will be there or thereabouts. A lot depends on how hulme settles in and James shanes. The heat leader trio will be a match for anybody but lacked back up last season.

Hopefully this will be addressed this time round.

A lot of people are talking up scunny and I can see why...mpt and Allen are much better riders than there current averages suggests also Plymouth have a cracking looking side and will do well.

Poole and Glasgow will also be in the mix with vissing a absolute steal on a five for the tigers.

Berwick and Birmingham have got there team building totally wrong imo and I predict brum will pick up the wooden spoon.

Edinburgh will finish the lower half with Oxford.

Oxford awesome heat leaders but I can't see where the rest of the points are coming from.

Anyway good luck one and all and let's get behind our teams and have a good year.

Merry Xmas x

[Wee Eck]

So many riders are being predicted to put a point of a couple of points on their averages. Where are all these extra points coming from? Or who are the riders expected to drop their averages? Other than Thomas Jorgensen whose converted average is simply too high to be maintained. 

[szkocjasid]

3 minutes ago, Wee Eck said:

So many riders are being predicted to put a point of a couple of points on their averages. Where are all these extra points coming from? Or who are the riders expected to drop their averages? Other than Thomas Jorgensen whose converted average is simply too high to be maintained. 

Teams are built to a 40 point limit, by the end of the season should average out at 42, so each rider technically should put 0.3ish on their average without improving as a rider.

[HGould]

Big question for me is the key difference betweem League Position and what then happens in the Play Offs.

I think there could be a bit of tomfoolery this year , isnt there always , well sometimes BUT, I think the lack of options at the bottom end of some teams built with top end strength may see some protection / reduction of averages to build teams up mid-later season, especially if a number of decent 5-6 point average riders are initially displaced.

My League Predictions therefore differ from Play Off outcomes.

 

League 

1 Redcar - strong top and an ace in Edwards who can improve again

2 Glasgow - strong and exciting and key men in Vissing + Complin if they can regain even 80% of proper form - Ace P could be an absolute ace (rate him very highly)

3 Scunny - will the real Jake Allen please stand up...IF he does they are very very solid throughout!

4. Plymouth - very good top 5 and very strong at home - IF Gilkes returns as he left will mitigate real concerns at 6 and 7

5 Poole - I think they'll sandbag it early - if Roynon + Newman are reserves initially and stay FIT they could finish higher but I have a hunch they will have plans for incoming Aussies at some point on 4-5 point averages once said Aussies have proved fitness in other European Leagues. 

6 Edinburgh - always tough at home and likely to make the Play Offs in Pickering they have outstanding rider and Thomson is under-rated imo

7 Oxford - excellent top 3 will win them matches but unless we get the slimline fit Heeps a lot of pressure on lower order

8 Birmingham - a lot of pressure on Nick Morris is isn't always great at dealing with pressure, Sedgeman will need to ride like he did in 2022 BUT can be hot and cold and the rest of the team just doesn't match up to the early "we've been inundated with riders wanting to ride for us" messages coming out of PB. I think the late saving of the Monarchs basically ruined Brummies plans!

9 Berwick - Flint will continue to improve and with Brennan be at the front of the next wave of developing British talent, RooBoy is a proud man and won't lie down without a fight but his return is baffling in many ways - they should be strong at home but vulnerable away.

 

PLAY OFFS....I see being semi finals with Redcar / Plymouth / Poole and Glasgow. Champions -: It's impossible then to look past Poole as that's when they will be at their best and most dangerous. 

 

 

 

[Beirao]

15 minutes ago, HGould said:

Big question for me is the key difference betweem League Position and what then happens in the Play Offs.

I think there could be a bit of tomfoolery this year , isnt there always , well sometimes BUT, I think the lack of options at the bottom end of some teams built with top end strength may see some protection / reduction of averages to build teams up mid-later season, especially if a number of decent 5-6 point average riders are initially displaced.

My League Predictions therefore differ from Play Off outcomes.

 

League 

1 Redcar - strong top and an ace in Edwards who can improve again

2 Glasgow - strong and exciting and key men in Vissing + Complin if they can regain even 80% of proper form - Ace P could be an absolute ace (rate him very highly)

3 Scunny - will the real Jake Allen please stand up...IF he does they are very very solid throughout!

4. Plymouth - very good top 5 and very strong at home - IF Gilkes returns as he left will mitigate real concerns at 6 and 7

5 Poole - I think they'll sandbag it early - if Roynon + Newman are reserves initially and stay FIT they could finish higher but I have a hunch they will have plans for incoming Aussies at some point on 4-5 point averages once said Aussies have proved fitness in other European Leagues. 

6 Edinburgh - always tough at home and likely to make the Play Offs in Pickering they have outstanding rider and Thomson is under-rated imo

7 Oxford - excellent top 3 will win them matches but unless we get the slimline fit Heeps a lot of pressure on lower order

8 Birmingham - a lot of pressure on Nick Morris is isn't always great at dealing with pressure, Sedgeman will need to ride like he did in 2022 BUT can be hot and cold and the rest of the team just doesn't match up to the early "we've been inundated with riders wanting to ride for us" messages coming out of PB. I think the late saving of the Monarchs basically ruined Brummies plans!

9 Berwick - Flint will continue to improve and with Brennan be at the front of the next wave of developing British talent, RooBoy is a proud man and won't lie down without a fight but his return is baffling in many ways - they should be strong at home but vulnerable away.

 

PLAY OFFS....I see being semi finals with Redcar / Plymouth / Poole and Glasgow. Champions -: It's impossible then to look past Poole as that's when they will be at their best and most dangerous. 

 

 

 

Are there semi finals in next years playoffs ? Isn't it two groups of three with the winners racing in the final?

[Wee Eck]

2 hours ago, szkocjasid said:

Teams are built to a 40 point limit, by the end of the season should average out at 42, so each rider technically should put 0.3ish on their average without improving as a rider.

Good point. I hadn’t thought of that. (But I still think there’ll be a few disappointments when it comes to raising averages, or rather not raising averages)

[Coraldon]

I predict we will see good racing again at Redcar, not bothered about who finishes where, as long as it is a good season for everyone. MERRY XMAS

[eric i]

Poole don't look special to me but if riders aren't performing they will be ruthless and splash the cash on some foreigner on a 5point average.

[Steve Shovlar]

1 hour ago, eric i said:

Poole don't look special to me but if riders aren't performing they will be ruthless and splash the cash on some foreigner on a 5point average.

It’s always interesting how others view the Poole team. To me we look a notch above all other teams. No weak link like last season. Two top performers, two young Aussies who improved massively as last season progressed, an up and coming Brit at number two who proved his capabilities at Oxford last season and two experienced riders at reserve capable of whipping the arses of most of the other named reserves.

I get the feeling that many on here don’t yet realise the full potential of the Cook brothers and view them as 5-6 point average riders easily beaten by their counterparts. If that’s the case I see why some are viewing the Poole team as not looking special. 

[phillipsr]

4 minutes ago, Steve Shovlar said:

It’s always interesting how others view the Poole team. To me we look a notch above all other teams. No weak link like last season. Two top performers, two young Aussies who improved massively as last season progressed, an up and coming Brit at number two who proved his capabilities at Oxford last season and two experienced riders at reserve capable of whipping the arses of most of the other named reserves.

I get the feeling that many on here don’t yet realise the full potential of the Cook brothers and view them as 5-6 point average riders easily beaten by their counterparts. If that’s the case I see why some are viewing the Poole team as not looking special. 

Theres definitely question marks about them.. seen riders have purple patches before and not continue in that way… you have said yourself that the team wasnt one that excited to much and i cant imagine was team A. Said before Poole will be there challenging because they always are but it doesnt look as good as some named. If that 1-7 was named as Birminghams team im not sure you would be saying there a notch above 

[mikebaker]

Looks like both Drew Kemp and Anders Rowe may not have a team place in the UK at start of the season. Both are on above 5 point averages. That awkward figure with a 40 point limit. Both were heralded as future GB stars. Also likely to miss out are the 2 Americans. Nichol and Ruml.

Edited December 23, 2022 by mikebaker