Green Sheet Rolling Averages - Reducing in 2022

[szkocjasid]

On 5/13/2022 at 2:26 PM, Roger Jacobs said:

I have posted this in the general section, but thought it worthwhile for those who are only interested in the Prem ...

The Green Sheet Rolling Averages have been based on 20 matches for a while, but this season (2022), the number of matches is reducing by 2 each month, so: June 18, July 16, August 14, September 12, and by October the Rolling Averages will be based on the last 10 matches.

I checked with the BSPL office, and they confirmed that it has always been the last N matches, irrespective of home or away, i.e. not half of each. Therefore, by October it's possible that riders will have averages skewed by 6/7/8 home and 4/3/2 away, or even 4/3/2 home and 6/7/8 away.  Obviously, the smaller the sample, the bigger the impact on the overall average - especially when a new score is added and the oldest is dropped.

Another change by the BSPL for which the consequences have not been thought through ...

I don't see the point at all, of dropping rolling aves from 20 matches to 10

[arnieg]

I 've always thought 20 matches was too many. For example Ulrich Ostergaard's GSA on 30 June will still include four 2019 matches, hardly an indicator of current form.

However 6 is clearly too few as it allows reserves to pick up a couple of big scores and shoot to number 1 (as happened to Nick Simmons(?) at Newport).

Personally (and it is no more than a considered opinion) I think 12 matches is about right.

[stevebrum]

On 5/15/2022 at 4:15 PM, enotian said:

Exactly why you can't use averages for team building, in that scenario.

Wouldn't Woffinden come back in on his previous top division average which was about 7.50 or something ridiculously low.  So even if riders did drop points you'd have the likes of Sam Masters on a higher average than him.

If they can attract the GP stars back, even if Poland allow it, just grade them.  They're already doing it with rising stars. Of course a riders average would play a part in defining the grade but averages to 2 decimal places just aren't accurate enough to rank individual riders. They're only even an indication

Riders that have been out of the UK for a few seasons seem to have been reassessed.  Well, they would be if they were Woffy such is the sour taste of some fans to Wolves using him absolutely legally. 

 

[IronScorpion]

On ‎5‎/‎15‎/‎2022 at 11:11 AM, enotian said:

Didn't it have something to do with riders manipulating lower averages from the first six matches of the following season such that a 2.00 rider could then be replaced by a 5.00 as the other six riders had collectively dropped 3 points between them, for example. As at the start of a new season the first set of new averages was based entirely on that seasons scores. Making it easy for a 9 pointer to 'take it easy' over the first six matches and lower their average before miraculously rediscovering their form and finishing the season as a 9 pointer.

By introducing rolling averages it was then much more difficult for a rider to reduce their average at the start of the season (or at any time) because they'd need to 'take it easy' over 20 matches which is difficult when points = money.

I've really no idea why they'd reduce this to 10 matches? That's worse than pre rolling averages.  At least then a riders starting average for the following season was based on their performance across the whole of the last season, in which there used to be plenty of matches.

Aside from manipulating lower averages for the start of the following season a team guaranteed a play off spot could actually manipulate their averages to have a stronger reserve for the play offs.  Say Belle Vue have a commanding lead in the PL with even six matches to go. Could Charles Wright, for example, have six bad matches and find himself at reserve for the play offs?

Exactly the point I am making. 10 meetings is too low & does not include end of season play off scores.