Speedway Betting 2022

[TTT]

37 minutes ago, orion said:

Is bet 365 in play stuck on 3 all

 

 

Yes.

Happened last week too.

[orion]

6 minutes ago, TTT said:

Yes.

Happened last week too.

Cheers thought it was just me

 

[orion]

Watching heat 13 of the wolves match  i thought Holder was 3rd  . meaing he scored 7 . is that right 

[Odds On]

7 minutes ago, orion said:

Watching heat 13 of the wolves match  i thought Holder was 3rd  . meaing he scored 7 . is that right 

you are correct on both counts.

[PTW]

7 minutes ago, orion said:

Watching heat 13 of the wolves match  i thought Holder was 3rd  . meaing he scored 7 . is that right 

Yh I seen that aswell keep an eye out for official refs scorecard out on bspa site tomoz then contact them as updates has him down for 8 

[Odds On]

i'm guessing a few of you backed Holder to score less than 8 then!

[PTW]

7 minutes ago, Odds On said:

i'm guessing a few of you backed Holder to score less than 8 then!

Lol stood out like a sore thumb tbh he got lucky in his 3rd ride and his 2nd when Kerr mucked up shouldn’t have got near 7 tbh,backed him in the original fixture at 8/5 

Edited October 3, 2022 by PTW

[PTW]

Jack holder has been settled as a winner folks 

[Odds On]

Well done to the winners

[TTT]

This may turn out to be a foolish post that'll blow up in my face but to me it seems like Lejonen riders are being underestimated tonight by bet365.

BEN BASSO Over 3 @ 8/11 has to be backed imo. 

MATHIAS THORNBLOM Over 2 @ 8/11 has to be backed as well imo.

DOMINIK KUBERA Over 9 @ 4/6 & PATRYK DUDEK Over 8 @ 3/4 should be backed if you fancy going for higher marked riders.

 

Some Swedish Stats for those riders this season.

 

DUDEK has only gone under 9 once so OVER 8 looks like a great bet.

(H)
3, 2*, 2*, 3, d = 10+2
3, 1, 3, 2* = 9+1
3, 2, 3, 2*, 2* = 12+2
(A)
2, 3, d, 2, 2 = 9
2, 2, d, 3, 3 = 10
0, d, 3, 1, 1 = 5
3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2* = 15+1
3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3 = 17
0, 3, 3, 3, 0 = 9

 

KUBERA has only gone UNDER 9 once so OVER & EXACTLY 9 looks great too.

(H)
0, 3, 3, 3, 1* = 10+1
0, 1, 3, 3, 2* = 9+1
3, 3, 3, 3, 2* = 14+1
3, 3, 3, 3 = 12
2, 3, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1 = 9
2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3 = 14
(A)
2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3, w = 14
3, 1, 3, 0, 2 = 9
2*, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3 = 14+1
0, 3, 2, 2*, 3 = 10+1
3, 1, 3, 3, 1 = 11
2, 2, 3, 1*, 0 = 8+1

 

THORNBLOM has only gone UNDER 2 twice so OVER & EXACTLY 2 looks very appealing.

(H)
d, 0, 1* = 1+1
3, 2*, 3, 3, 2* = 13+2
0, 1, 2*, 0 = 3+1
1, 0, 2*, 2* = 5+2
0, 0, -, -, 2 = 2
3, 3, 1*, 3 = 10+1
1, 1, 1*, 1*, 1 = 5+2
0, -, 2*, 2, 0 = 4+1
(A)
0, 0, 1*, 2 = 3+1
0, 3, w, -, 2, 1 = 6
3, 1, 2*, 1* = 7+2
0, 1, 0, 0 = 1
2, 2*, 2*, 1*, 3 = 10+3
3, 1, 3 = 7
1*, 3, 1*, 1, 1*, 0 = 7+3
1, 3, 0, 2* = 6+1
w, 1, 0, 1, 3 = 5

 

BASSO has only had two meetings

(H)
2, 0, 1 = 3
(A)
0, 1, 1, 3 = 5

Edited October 4, 2022 by TTT

[Lorenzo558]

1 hour ago, TTT said:

This may turn out to be a foolish post that'll blow up in my face but to me it seems like Lejonen riders are being underestimated tonight by bet365.

BEN BASSO Over 3 @ 8/11 has to be backed imo. 

MATHIAS THORNBLOM Over 2 @ 8/11 has to be backed as well imo.

DOMINIK KUBERA Over 9 @ 4/6 & PATRYK DUDEK Over 8 @ 3/4 should be backed if you fancy going for higher marked riders.

 

Some Swedish Stats for those riders this season.

 

DUDEK has only gone under 9 once so OVER 8 looks like a great bet.

(H)
3, 2*, 2*, 3, d = 10+2
3, 1, 3, 2* = 9+1
3, 2, 3, 2*, 2* = 12+2
(A)
2, 3, d, 2, 2 = 9
2, 2, d, 3, 3 = 10
0, d, 3, 1, 1 = 5
3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2* = 15+1
3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3 = 17
0, 3, 3, 3, 0 = 9

 

KUBERA has only gone UNDER 9 once so OVER & EXACTLY 9 looks great too.

(H)
0, 3, 3, 3, 1* = 10+1
0, 1, 3, 3, 2* = 9+1
3, 3, 3, 3, 2* = 14+1
3, 3, 3, 3 = 12
2, 3, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1 = 9
2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3 = 14
(A)
2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3, w = 14
3, 1, 3, 0, 2 = 9
2*, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3 = 14+1
0, 3, 2, 2*, 3 = 10+1
3, 1, 3, 3, 1 = 11
2, 2, 3, 1*, 0 = 8+1

 

THORNBLOM has only gone UNDER 2 twice so OVER & EXACTLY 2 looks very appealing.

(H)
d, 0, 1* = 1+1
3, 2*, 3, 3, 2* = 13+2
0, 1, 2*, 0 = 3+1
1, 0, 2*, 2* = 5+2
0, 0, -, -, 2 = 2
3, 3, 1*, 3 = 10+1
1, 1, 1*, 1*, 1 = 5+2
0, -, 2*, 2, 0 = 4+1
(A)
0, 0, 1*, 2 = 3+1
0, 3, w, -, 2, 1 = 6
3, 1, 2*, 1* = 7+2
0, 1, 0, 0 = 1
2, 2*, 2*, 1*, 3 = 10+3
3, 1, 3 = 7
1*, 3, 1*, 1, 1*, 0 = 7+3
1, 3, 0, 2* = 6+1
w, 1, 0, 1, 3 = 5

 

BASSO has only had two meetings

(H)
2, 0, 1 = 3
(A)
0, 1, 1, 3 = 5

If all Lejonen riders are undervalued then maybe just play Lejonen with the handicap as they are correlated. Also are these stats that relevant because in almost all these meetings the opposition are clearly inferior to what Smederna put out tonight?

[TTT]

1 minute ago, Lorenzo558 said:

If all Lejonen riders are undervalued then maybe just play Lejonen with the handicap as they are correlated. Also are these stats that relevant because in almost all these meetings the opposition are clearly inferior to what Smederna put out tonight?

Stats include meetings against Smerderna for example last week Thornblom scored 5 @ Smederna so the 2 points line at Home doesn't make sense.

If I done the handicap then I'm relying on Berntzon & Henriksson

[Lorenzo558]

4 minutes ago, TTT said:

Stats include meetings against Smerderna for example last week Thornblom scored 5 @ Smederna so the 2 points line at Home doesn't make sense.

If I done the handicap then I'm relying on Berntzon & Henriksson

Two fair points. Still think my point about the stats stand. Also think Thornblom over 2 is an okay bet, will add tho that last week he rode as a reserve and got 5 rides, today he is at number 4 and start with the outside gates his first two heats

[TTT]

19 minutes ago, Lorenzo558 said:

Two fair points. Still think my point about the stats stand. Also think Thornblom over 2 is an okay bet, will add tho that last week he rode as a reserve and got 5 rides, today he is at number 4 and start with the outside gates his first two heats

I get where you're coming from and it's a good point tbh..

If I was going to back all 4 then I'd just swap them for the handicap as it would be the most logical thing to do. (I haven't backed Dudek or Kubera) 

[TTT]

Never question a bookie. 

Even Bartek Zmarlik is off the pace for Lejonen.

Edited October 4, 2022 by TTT

[TTT]

Some tasty looking bets tonight that I'm prepared to lose money on.

LUKE BECKER OVER 7 -> Luke's scores at Sheffield this season read the following (8 from 4) (9+1 from 4) & (10 from 5) therefore it has to be backed imo.

RYAN DOUGLAS OVER & EXACTLY 5 -> Ryan's scores at Sheffield this season read the following (6 from 4) (9+2 from 4) & (8+2 from 6) therefore like Becker the bet has to be backed imo.

[Heathcote]

Bet365 again seem pretty much on the money in my opinion as I think it will be a 50-40 home victory. Although wolves are averaging around 43 points at Owlerton this season just think the Sheffield riders are hitting more form recently whereas Wolves, particularly Douglas (No double figure score since July) are dropping off.

Although having said that I think Ryan over 5 is a bet for me tonight.

The other bets I see are both the tigers reserves to be outscoring their wolves counterparts.....barring falls exclusions and EF's the wolves airing only get 1 point between them tonight   

[TTT]

BV -8 @ 8/11 fill your boots.

[Heathcote]

25 minutes ago, TTT said:

BV -8 @ 8/11 fill your boots.

Absolutely !!!  No way are Belle Vue not hitting 55 points tonight, barring engine failures Belle Vue's top 3 will be scoring 37-40 points alone.

Also adding in the -4 for for Belle Vue at heat 8, in my opinion they will be 10 points+ ahead at that stage of the meeting.

 

Lambert at even money at -3 over Holder is a stand out bet as well, should be unbeaten and with this being the first leg then Heat 15 is guaranteed for Lambert, Holder will have had an exceptional evening if he gets double figures

Kurtz -1 over Musielak, Zagar -2 over Ellis, Etheridge over Sedgman are also bets, as well as assuming Tom has fully recovered from his knock last week he should outscore Kerr as well

In the total points market, Ellis under 9, Sedgman under 4, Kerr under 5, Musielak under 9

Kurtz Over 8, Wright over 5, Holder over 7, Etheridge over 2, Zagar over 10, Lambert over 12.

 

 

For reference, Sheffields averages at the NSS this season are as follows, Holder 8.80, Kerr 4.00,  Ellis 5.75,  Howarth 4.00, Musielak 5.00, Sedgman 1.33, Mountain 3.33 Total 32.22

 

[TTT]

6 minutes ago, Heathcote said:

Absolutely !!!  No way are Belle Vue not hitting 55 points tonight, barring engine failures Belle Vue's top 3 will be scoring 37-40 points alone.

Also adding in the -4 for for Belle Vue at heat 8, in my opinion they will be 10 points+ ahead at that stage of the meeting.

 

Lambert at even money at -3 over Holder is a stand out bet as well, should be unbeaten and with this being the first leg then Heat 15 is guaranteed for Lambert, Holder will have had an exceptional evening if he gets double figures

Kurtz -1 over Musielak, Zagar -2 over Ellis, Etheridge over Sedgman are also bets, as well as assuming Tom has fully recovered from his knock last week he should outscore Kerr as well

In the total points market, Ellis under 9, Sedgman under 4, Kerr under 5, Musielak under 9

Kurtz Over 8, Wright over 5, Holder over 7, Etheridge over 2, Zagar over 10, Lambert over 12.

 

 

For reference, Sheffields averages at the NSS this season are as follows, Holder 8.80, Kerr 4.00,  Ellis 5.75,  Howarth 4.00, Musielak 5.00, Sedgman 1.33, Mountain 3.33 Total 32.22

 

Couldn't agree more, BV riders on the Overs, Sheffield riders on the under.

Since BV got Zagar in for Allen they've battered Sheffield around the NSS (58 - 32 & 54 - 36) now BV are even stronger with Lambert in for Fricke.

 

Bottom end Sheffield riders performances around Belle Vue this season aren't good at all so I don't understand the handicap at all, No chance of BV's HL's being outscored.

 

KERR

0, F, 3 = 3

0, 2, 1*, 0, 0 = 3+1

1, 0, 1, 2* = 4+1

 

HOWARTH

2, 1, 0, 1, 1 = 5

0, 0, 1, 2 = 3

3, 1, 1, X = 5

 

SEDGMEN

0, 0, 0 = 0

0, 1, 0, 1 = 2

2, 0, 0 = 2

 

MOUNTAIN

1*, 1, 0, 0 = 2+1

1, 3, 1*, 0 = 5+1

0, 0, 0, 1 = 1