Corona virus

[E I Addio]

18 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

“Death wish”?

You are perpetuating a myth

While people sunbathing in public parks may quite rightly be criticised for not following government guidelines, they are almost certainly not passing on the virus to each other, let alone being guilty of having a “death wish”.

Contact is much closer in a supermarket and yet that is not a “death wish”.

I didn’t mention people in public parks. I don’t know what numbers were involved or how sensibly or stupidly they were behaving, Neither do you. Of the hundreds ,possibly thousands involved it is almost inevitable that some will be carriers.

Your comparison with supermarkets is interesting. One is essential , one isn’t. One involved a relatively short period of potential exposure, the other much longer. I don’t know about your area but round here the supermarkets and our local farm shopare only letting a few in at a time on a one in one out basis,and the floors have been divided into squares so every body keeps to their own space. Totally different the thousands in a park.

As with all health and safety the ones in the greatest danger are the ones who least recognise the danger. You can’t rely on everyone acting sensibly that’s why we need regulations.

Edited April 11, 2020 by E I Addio

[BWitcher]

3 hours ago, E I Addio said:

There is no true evidence that it would have killed any number.

But we do have true evidence now that there isn't a single country that has either 'not locked down' or have a much 'laxer' lockdown that has seen any significant surge in either cases or deaths. In reality, it's actually been the opposite.

The justification for the lockdown was we'd see 20 x the cases, 20 x the deaths. Events around the world are showing that simply isn't the case... so we're simply destroying the economy and creating absolutely massive problems down the line (which many simply don't grasp) for what amounts to be very little or no gain at all.

Based upon the initial models there was a very strong argument the lockdown was the way to go.... but as more and more data emerges they need to stop modelling on theories and actually look at reality.

The problem you will have now is stubborness. The 'experts' will not want to admit they were wrong.. governments will have a hard time coming out saying, well actually, sorry folks, we cocked up here, seems the lockdown doesn't actually help. In reality, in a sensible world they shouldn't be criticised if they did that.. they did what they thought was best and the models showed and erred on the side of caution. Sadly though people turn fast and they'd get a very negative response. PLUS you'd have a section of society who would blame every death thereafter on there not being a lockdown and forget all about those who were dying when there was one.

The other factor is... for a lockdown to have any chance to work, it needs to be total.. as it was in Wuhan. However, you simply can't lock down an entire country. Whilst people are still going to work, going to supermarkets etc... and you have idiots breaking the guidelines (not the ones in parks, more the ones having house parties) it simply isn't going to happen.

This 'myth' that the lockdown is working because numbers are beginning to stabilise is just that. A myth. That's how viruses work.. indeed it happens every single year without fail. In October you start to see an increase in flu/pneumonia related deaths.. the figure rises and rises quite sharply till in December you hit around 3000 a week dying. That continues for a number of weeks at that level (doesn't rise further like these stupid models keep portraying) before starting to drop down as winter comes to an end. This virus is following the exact same pattern.

 

[waytogo28]

4 hours ago, DC2 said:

 

There is no evidence that it would have killed 250,000.

And could we not have protected the vulnerable and elderly sooner and with better measures?  We could see from Italy that they were especially at risk.  We might have had only 20,000 deaths then.

 

If you are right I am more than pleased hear that ie less than 250,000. I heard the high figure of 250,000 when it was first mooted about "herd immunity".  Oh Yes! if we could have protected the VE ( and me ! ) and limited it to 20,000 deaths. Hallelujah!! Now that someone from my church gets my essential medication, I have no intention of going out for 4 - 6 weeks  ( or as long as my food stocks last! ). Just a constitutional in the park behind my flat every day. Rain or shine.

[DC2]

26 minutes ago, E I Addio said:

I didn’t mention people in public parks.

I don’t know what numbers were involved or how sensibly or stupidly they were behaving, Neither do you. Of the hundreds ,possibly thousands involved it is almost inevitable that some will be carriers.

 

OK, can you give examples of people behaving as if they have a death wish?

 

[BWitcher]

2 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

OK, can you give examples of people behaving as if they have a death wish?

 

Indeed... the reality is, the vast majority of deaths appear to be from those who were 'self isolating'.

[Ray Stadia]

3 minutes ago, DC2 said:

 

OK, can you give examples of people behaving as if they have a death wish?

 

I can....please see my post, 5 or 6 back! 

[DC2]

1 minute ago, BWitcher said:

Indeed... the reality is, the vast majority of deaths appear to be from those who were 'self isolating'.

 

Somehow I don’t think E I Addio has them in mind.

 

[DC2]

1 minute ago, Ray Stadia said:

I can....please see my post, 5 or 6 back! 

 

2 or 3 men shaking hands?

You might have a point if they were all 90 and carrying ventilators.

Otherwise, not!

 

[BWitcher]

Just now, DC2 said:

 

2 or 3 men shaking hands?

You might have a point if they were all 90 and carrying ventilators.

Otherwise, not!

 

Perhaps he means they were out so in danger of being run over?

[E I Addio]

Just now, DC2 said:

 

OK, can you give examples of people behaving as if they have a death wish?

 

A figure of speech to illustrate stupid behaviour one example of which is the number attending the Cheltenham Gold Cup a few weeks ago in confined spaces, and reports of some of things going on in London which seems to now be translating into higher statistics with London being ahead of the rest of the country.  
As I seem to keep repeating incessantly many of these measures are only necessary because a relatively small percentage don’t exhibit basic common sense in dealing with a dangerous disease.
 

[E I Addio]

6 minutes ago, BWitcher said:

Indeed... the reality is, the vast majority of deaths appear to be from those who were 'self isolating'.

What’s the basis for saying that ? Surely the majority of those self isolating were doing so because they were extremely vulnerable or because they were exhibiting preliminary symptoms.

[BWitcher]

2 minutes ago, E I Addio said:

A figure of speech to illustrate stupid behaviour one example of which is the number attending the Cheltenham Gold Cup a few weeks ago in confined spaces, and reports of some of things going on in London which seems to now be translating into higher statistics with London being ahead of the rest of the country.  
As I seem to keep repeating incessantly many of these measures are only necessary because a relatively small percentage don’t exhibit basic common sense in dealing with a dangerous disease.
 

These pale into comparison to the numbers still going to work, cramming onto the tube and going to supermarkets.

[BWitcher]

Just now, E I Addio said:

What’s the basis for saying that ? Surely the majority of those self isolating were doing so because they were extremely vulnerable or because they were exhibiting preliminary symptoms.

There are just as many if not more who will have had preliminary symptoms and not self isolated. Millions and millions will have had some of the symptoms listed for Covid-19 as a number of them are the same as the common cold, or a strain of flu. The majority have not locked themselves away.

Yet the overwhelming majority of deaths you see reported, the pattern seems to be the same.. had been self isolating.. condition deteriorated. Viruses thrive indoors. That's proven.

Self isolating I don't mind per se, but get some fresh air and in particular sunlight at the very least!

My Mother received a letter from the NHS yesterday telling her she is not to go outside her house.. but she can have a window open. Absolute nonsense. So suggesting can't sit in the garden? Do you think the virus is going to fly over the fence? But it won't fly through an open window?

[E I Addio]

1 minute ago, BWitcher said:

These pale into comparison to the numbers still going to work, cramming onto the tube and going to supermarkets.

The figures for deaths relate to people who contracted the disease up yo a month ago in conditions that existed then.In London at least the trains are reported to be far less crowded today. I have already mentioned precautions taken in supermarkets..

 

 

 

 

 

[HertsRacer]

21 hours ago, DC2 said:

 

Well, that’s quite simple.

It’s been admitted that some figures have included deaths where Covid has been suspected rather than confirmed by testing.

And it’s clear that where Covid is included as one of two or three “causes” on a death certificate it may not have caused the death.

From the BBC:

”Is coronavirus causing the deaths?

The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported.

But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.

It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else.”

I spoke to a friends wife yesterday who is a Death Registrar at a hospital. I asked her the question, if a person was knocked down by a lorry and killed and the autopsy showed they were carrying the virus would he be included as a Covid death. The answer was yes.

Edited April 11, 2020 by HertsRacer

[BWitcher]

1 minute ago, E I Addio said:

The figures for deaths relate to people who contracted the disease up yo a month ago in conditions that existed then.In London at least the trains are reported to be far less crowded today. I have already mentioned precautions taken in supermarkets..

 

 

 

 

 

We're up to a month now!

Blimey, this virus keeps taking longer and longer. 14 days.. 21 days.. now a month. 

However long is necessary to get the numbers to fit I guess!

In Japan it's taking 4 months to start killing. But boy.. just wait till it does.

Same in Sweden no doubt.

[E I Addio]

1 minute ago, BWitcher said:

There are just as many if not more who will have had preliminary symptoms and not self isolated. Millions and millions will have had some of the symptoms listed for Covid-19 as a number of them are the same as the common cold, or a strain of flu. The majority have not locked themselves away.

Yet the overwhelming majority of deaths you see reported, the pattern seems to be the same.. had been self isolating.. condition deteriorated. Viruses thrive indoors. That's proven.

Self isolating I don't mind per se, but get some fresh air and in particular sunlight at the very least!

My Mother received a letter from the NHS yesterday telling her she is not to go outside her house.. but she can have a window open. Absolute nonsense. So suggesting can't sit in the garden? Do you think the virus is going to fly over the fence? But it won't fly through an open window?

No that’s not what I am suggesting . For example after last weeks Friday night applause for the NHS I went out for some exercise and there was a chap at the end of the village singing to all the neighbours with a karaoke machine for about 10 minutes and he is doing this every Friday till the emergency is over. There were probably 30-40 listening all standing a good distance apart and it was all very peasant and friendly . Nothing wrong with that . But not everybody acts with that degree of common sense.

 

[BWitcher]

1 minute ago, E I Addio said:

No that’s not what I am suggesting . For example after last weeks Friday night applause for the NHS I went out for some exercise and there was a chap at the end of the village singing to all the neighbours with a karaoke machine for about 10 minutes and he is doing this every Friday till the emergency is over. There were probably 30-40 listening all standing a good distance apart and it was all very peasant and friendly . Nothing wrong with that . But not everybody acts with that degree of common sense.

 

Totally agree with that.

 

[Ray Stadia]

29 minutes ago, E I Addio said:

No that’s not what I am suggesting . For example after last weeks Friday night applause for the NHS I went out for some exercise and there was a chap at the end of the village singing to all the neighbours with a karaoke machine for about 10 minutes and he is doing this every Friday till the emergency is over. There were probably 30-40 listening all standing a good distance apart and it was all very peasant and friendly . Nothing wrong with that . But not everybody acts with that degree of common sense.

 

The trouble is, while I agree, if everyone was safe distancing, where's the harm? But the police may take a different view and the authorities don't want us to create our own 'workarounds' or us 'pushing the envelope'. They have presented their message in a black and white way and they want us to adopt it in a black and white way, not bending the rules. Don't get me wrong, I'm as frustrated as everyone else with these draconian measures. 

[DC2]

1 hour ago, E I Addio said:

The figures for deaths relate to people who contracted the disease up to a month ago in conditions that existed then.

 

That’s the accepted wisdom, isn’t it.

But the daily new cases and daily new deaths graphs for Spain have the same shape for the same days, not the deaths one lagging behind by several weeks.

Have a look.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/