hans fan Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, acef said: Bet my bottom dollar wright finishes with a higher average than Jensen. Jensen is in a difficult spot now, his average is only going 1 way. Weight got his average as a heat leader and number 1 for a while. Kildemand has been poor but that’s not the real version of him. If he rediscovers his form, there will be nothing between him and Batchelor. Doyle is head and shoulders above the rest of the league so no comparison. Beneath that I think BV are stronger with better reserves, and equal 2nd strings. That’s a brave statement about Jensen as much as I like Wright his gating isn’t good enough . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acef Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, szkocjasid said: Did Jensen ride at reserve though? He replaced Lampart, who was in the team, and would always have had an ave higher than Perks / Shanes / Wajknecht / Vissing! I'd have to double check but I understood he started there. I may well be wrong on that one. Jensen came out of nowhere. He was a steady 2nd Division rider, so to come into that Swindon team and do what he did was more than surprising. He started on a low average so it was always going to increase, but at the end of the season I genuinely thought he'd ridden himself out of a team place so fair kop to Swindon for sticking by him. Personally I just don't see him keeping that average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noggin Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Jensen was always in the top 5, never reserve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acef Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 hour ago, stevebrum said: If Kildemand hits the ground running then I’d probably agree you would be joint favourites. He is a huge risk in my opinion but personally looking forward to see his all action style. Jensen actually improved his average as the season went on so obviously I disagree with your point. As far as I know he never rode at reserve either. Jensen last season was a revelation. This season is going to be really, really tough for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acef Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 44 minutes ago, hans fan said: That’s a brave statement about Jensen as much as I like Wright his gating isn’t good enough . I don't think it's brave, I think it's a logical way to look at it. There is a 1.3 difference between them, but as I've said previously Wright was either 1/3/5 across a full season pretty much. I think he had a tougher gig than Jensen. Time will tell, but I think by the season end they will be in and around the same ball park. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevebrum Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, acef said: Jensen last season was a revelation. This season is going to be really, really tough for him. He was a huge revelation. I don’t think anyone saw that coming. If he maintains his average then he will have done well too, but looks capable of more. Wright on the other hand is more than a point away as far as averages go and I grant you in a poor performing team. However with no clear leader at Belle Vue he will need to up his game as well if the Aces are to have a successful season. He has been a very slow burner so whether he has an extra point in him this season is very debatable. As he is a Brit I hope he has a great season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acef Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, stevebrum said: He was a huge revelation. I don’t think anyone saw that coming. If he maintains his average then he will have done well too, but looks capable of more. Wright on the other hand is more than a point away as far as averages go and I grant you in a poor performing team. However with no clear leader at Belle Vue he will need to up his game as well if the Aces are to have a successful season. He has been a very slow burner so whether he has an extra point in him this season is very debatable. As he is a Brit I hope he has a great season. Context is everything. Wright may be a point away, but he ridden the entire season as a heat leader. It's a bit like the masters debate a few of us had not long ago. At the end of the day the averages don't lie but it's very circumstantial. Wright has been steadily developing season upon season and I think there is another point in him, whereas with Jensen, I think he'll lose a point. My argument is that there is little between them when you look at the context of how those averages were attained. Let's look at the numbers in 10 months time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagpuss Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I’m not convinced there’s another point in Wright, would love to be wrong though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SPEEDY69 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 The thing about averages is they never tell the whole story. The team they're in and their confidence etc. play a huge part. Wright may have been at 1 3 or 5 but was fairly certain of finishing ahead of his team partner in a lot of races, Jensen not so much. A new track for Wright could erode or build his confidence, having a big impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinny Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Swindons top 3 is head and shoulders above Belle Vues, cant even see how thats up for debate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyderd Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, Pinny said: Swindons top 3 is head and shoulders above Belle Vues, cant even see how thats up for debate. Swindon's top 2 yes, 3 no, any half decent rider who comes into a team with Doyle and Batchelor as the top 2,will/should improve, as Jenson did. But he is not head and shoulders above Wright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Without knowing who will fill the final berths at Ipswich & P'boro, difficult to judge. Swindon - the bottom end is looking a bit feeble, but Perks should improve further and good on Swindon for giving a young Brit in Rowe a chance. The danger is that Jensen is not able to maintain the level he achieved during a spectacular breakout season in 2019. An injury to Doyle will be hard to overcome. Play-Offs, yep. Sheffield - Solid top 5, guessing the hope is that there is improvement in Holder because can't see much improvement anywhere else in the team but no real risks either. Play-Offs, yep. Belle Vue - Interesting team, could Kurtz finally become a genuine #1 is the first question. Can Kildemand rediscover any of the form he showed a few years ago another big question. Don't think there is much more to come from Worrall if I'm honest but there certainly should be from Bewley & Lidsey. Play-Offs, likely. Kings Lynn - same old, same old. Lambert had a poor 2019 but better back up from the start of the season this year in Cook & Riss will help. Jorgensen, Proctor & Kerr are uninspiring signings and suspect Hartel will struggle. Play-Offs, maybe. Wolves - If Morris can rediscover his form from 2017 then Wolves might do OK but the likely improvement at the bottom end may only make up for the 2 points the team starts below the limit. Masters, Thorrsell & Schlien are not going to improve and none of them are genuine #1's. Play-Offs, unlikely. Of these septets can only see Swindon, Sheffield & Belle Vue potentially winning the play-offs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.V 72 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) All the talk is about Belle vue''s top 3 for me I will be happy if they hold their averages.I think Belle vue's biggest strength will be Bewley and Lidsey two young riders that in my opinion should well improve their averages next season.Dan dropped nearly a point off his 2018 average last year due to his horrendous injury and was beginning to look like his old self by the end of the season and with a full closed season to improve his health/strength I believe he will be our third heat leader in no time leaving Wright as a very good second string with easier heats. Lidsey is pure class and is going places fast with a full British season behind him to learn the ropes he should be pushing/overtaking Worrall for a top 5 spot either way leaving Belle vue with a very strong reserve.I also believe that Worrall who dropped nearly a point off his average has had the metal work removed from his leg which could see him return to the rider he was before his bad injury.All if's and but's but if this is the case Belle vue are in for a good season. All about opinions folks and this is mine. Edited January 14, 2020 by B.V 72 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.V 72 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) On 1/12/2020 at 8:53 AM, phillipsr said: Doyle vs Kurtz = Doyle Batch vs Killer = Batch Jensen vs Wright = Jensen Ellis vs Bewley = Ellis Stewart vs Worrall = close.. depends if Worrall is over injuries Perks vs Lidsey = Lidsey Rowe vs Etheridge = Rowe everywhere else over than the NSS so not close really... dont get the fuss on this Belle Vue team at all Just picking out the Rowe v Etheridge comment I can only go off what I have seen.i saw Rowe in three Colts meetings last year.Out if 15 rides he won one race against National league heat leaders.He may do OK at home but away I think he is in for a very tough season. Edited January 14, 2020 by B.V 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillipsr Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 24 minutes ago, B.V 72 said: Just picking out the Rowe v Etheridge comment I can only go off what I have seen.i saw Rowe in three Colts meetings last year.Out if 15 rides he won one race against National league heat leaders.He may do OK at home but away I think he is in for a very tough season. Don't disagree but so is Etheridge, ive seen Rowe at a couple of places but mainly Scunthorpe where he has always gone very well, id rather have Rowe but at the NSS Etheridge is very good.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinny Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 hours ago, hyderd said: Swindon's top 2 yes, 3 no, any half decent rider who comes into a team with Doyle and Batchelor as the top 2,will/should improve, as Jenson did. But he is not head and shoulders above Wright. Will have to disagree. The argument was top 3 vs top 3.... Swindons is a lot stronger. Doyle well clear of Kurtz , Batchelor again way clear of a fading Kildemand and Jensen over a point higher than Wright. I cant see how there can be any comparison really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyderd Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Pinny said: Will have to disagree. The argument was top 3 vs top 3.... Swindons is a lot stronger. Doyle well clear of Kurtz , Batchelor again way clear of a fading Kildemand and Jensen over a point higher than Wright. I cant see how there can be any comparison really. No argument regards Doyle and Batch, but Jensen and Wright are closer then you say if we count both leagues. Wright has a 0.54 better average in the Championship, Jensen has a 0.82 better average in the prem, put them together and Jensen's total average is 0.28 better. Wright gained his Prem average over a full season riding for the weakest team. Jenson gained his over a big part season riding for the strongest team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevebrum Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 14 hours ago, acef said: Context is everything. Wright may be a point away, but he ridden the entire season as a heat leader. It's a bit like the masters debate a few of us had not long ago. At the end of the day the averages don't lie but it's very circumstantial. Wright has been steadily developing season upon season and I think there is another point in him, whereas with Jensen, I think he'll lose a point. My argument is that there is little between them when you look at the context of how those averages were attained. Let's look at the numbers in 10 months time. Fully agree, I expect Jensen to have a higher average by end of year. 5 hours ago, Pinny said: Swindons top 3 is head and shoulders above Belle Vues, cant even see how thats up for debate. Nor me, it’s a barmy comparison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acef Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, Pinny said: Will have to disagree. The argument was top 3 vs top 3.... Swindons is a lot stronger. Doyle well clear of Kurtz , Batchelor again way clear of a fading Kildemand and Jensen over a point higher than Wright. I cant see how there can be any comparison really. Because you are not looking at the context of the situation. You are looking at averages. I agree, on paper, there is a clear and present gap but numbers alone don’t tell us the whole story. If we are using the form of Kildemand on the continent, which we shouldn’t be, then we could introduce another angle altogether on this. Killer has been a better rider abroad than Batchelor over the last 5 years. Very difficult to pass judgment on a rider who hasn’t ridden here for a long time. Its purely speculative and as it stands I have no way of measuring Killer against Batchelor, I can only say that in my opinion, if he gets to the level he has been previous, that he will be in and around the figure of Troy at the season end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acef Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, hyderd said: Swindon's top 2 yes, 3 no, any half decent rider who comes into a team with Doyle and Batchelor as the top 2,will/should improve, as Jenson did. But he is not head and shoulders above Wright. Correct. Doyle v Kurtz won’t be a comparison again this season because Jason is just so much better, but killer vs batch most certainly will be as the season goes on. Jensen v Wright. Absolutely nothing in it when you look at the context. Swindon have a much better number one, but 2nd and 3rd heat leader there is nothing between them in my opinion. I think PK and Wright will be as strong as TB and RJ. Edited January 14, 2020 by acef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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