dontforgetthefueltapsbruv Posted October 31, 2019 Report Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, DC2 said: Out of interest, Craig Cook, the top CL rider has a 10.18 CL average and a 7.78 PL one. The same ratio (1.308) gives Doyle a 11.72 CL average from his 8.96 PL average. That's a different issue - ie is the conversion rate correct I'd say the figures you quote are quite possibly a more accurate reflection if how things should be rather than the actual conversion in the regs It surely wouldn't be too hard to work out an average average using performances from both leagues where applicable Edited October 31, 2019 by dontforgetthefueltapsbruv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted November 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: But then you would have the like of Doyle Fricke and Lambert all assessed at 12 for team building when quite obviously Doyle is head and shoulders above There's no point. Give him 14, or whatever, and he's just going to drop by about 3 points anyway after a month, and then you get tactical team changes again (eg 2017, Musielak for Grondal after Doyle started on 13.42). Winning by half a lap is the same as winning by 10 yards points wise. All 3 would be pretty much unbeatsble at champ level. Edited November 1, 2019 by Grachan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 5 hours ago, Grachan said: There's no point. Give him 14, or whatever, and he's just going to drop by about 3 points anyway after a month, and then you get tactical team changes again (eg 2017, Musielak for Grondal after Doyle started on 13.42). Winning by half a lap is the same as winning by 10 yards points wise. All 3 would be pretty much unbeatsble at champ level. I tend to agree but I think you need to find some way of building in a fair and realistic differential Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 7 hours ago, Grachan said: There's no point. Give him 14, or whatever, and he's just going to drop by about 3 points anyway after a month, and then you get tactical team changes again (eg 2017, Musielak for Grondal after Doyle started on 13.42). Winning by half a lap is the same as winning by 10 yards points wise. All 3 would be pretty much unbeatsble at champ level. Unbeatable? They would beat each other from time to time and none of them would average above 11. No different from the Crump, Adams and Pedersen days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 9 hours ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: That's a different issue - ie is the conversion rate correct I'd say the figures you quote are quite possibly a more accurate reflection if how things should be rather than the actual conversion in the regs It surely wouldn't be too hard to work out an average average using performances from both leagues where applicable No, it’s not a different issue. You said Doyle, Fricke and Lambert would all be assessed at 12, which would be unfair as “Doyle is head and shoulders above” the other two. So I’ve given you a fair conversion rate which will give them different averages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, DC2 said: No, it’s not a different issue. You said Doyle, Fricke and Lambert would all be assessed at 12, which would be unfair as “Doyle is head and shoulders above” the other two. So I’ve given you a fair conversion rate which will give them different averages. It is a different issue because the conversion example you used isnt the regulatory rate - until it is then it is a different issue I did say that I agreed the ratio you stated was more realistic in terms of the real world difference and therefore would be a better position to use I also believe it would be relatively straightforward to use that realistic conversion rate as well as using results from both leagues for those doubling up so that every rider only ever has one average (at least for team building/changes purposes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, dontforgetthefueltapsbruv said: It is a different issue because the conversion example you used isnt the regulatory rate - until it is then it is a different issue I did say that I agreed the ratio you stated was more realistic in terms of the real world difference and therefore would be a better position to use I also believe it would be relatively straightforward to use that realistic conversion rate as well as using results from both leagues for those doubling up so that every rider only ever has one average (at least for team building/changes purposes) It’s not a different issue. Nevertheless, one conversion rate is unsatisfactory, as the top riders score more points more often, the middle riders score up and down, and the bottom riders generally have middling to poor scores. So top riders like Cook have a conversion rate of 1.31, but middling CL riders like Ellis Perks have 1.79. I suspect Anders Rowe (4.38 CL) would have been a 2 pointer in the PL, giving a conversion rate of 2.19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted November 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, DC2 said: Unbeatable? They would beat each other from time to time and none of them would average above 11. No different from the Crump, Adams and Pedersen days. I'm pretty sure they would average over 11. Don't forget there would be 20 teams. That makes the top 60 in the current PL as heatleaders and the top 20 would be number ones. So anyone in the top 3 averages for a club at moment is likely to be a number one give or take a few exceptions where teams have a strong top 4. Your looking at riders who are currently at reserve being heatleaders. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted November 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, DC2 said: It’s not a different issue. Nevertheless, one conversion rate is unsatisfactory, as the top riders score more points more often, the middle riders score up and down, and the bottom riders generally have middling to poor scores. So top riders like Cook have a conversion rate of 1.31, but middling CL riders like Ellis Perks have 1.79. I suspect Anders Rowe (4.38 CL) would have been a 2 pointer in the PL, giving a conversion rate of 2.19. Most middling riders (eg Perks) already have a CL average anyway, so wouldn't need converting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Grachan said: Most middling riders (eg Perks) already have a CL average anyway, so wouldn't need converting. Yes, but the point I was making is that there is not a “one figure suits all” conversion rate. That for the best riders is lower than that for the worst riders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Grachan said: I'm pretty sure they would average over 11. Don't forget there would be 20 teams. That makes the top 60 in the current PL as heatleaders and the top 20 would be number ones. So anyone in the top 3 averages for a club at moment is likely to be a number one give or take a few exceptions where teams have a strong top 4. Your looking at riders who are currently at reserve being heatleaders. There are 49 current PL riders and another 12 who averaged above 4 and finished without clubs, so yes, practically all would be heat leaders, although one would expect some higher averaged imports to come in, making those with a current average below 4 (Shanes, Sarjeant etc) second strings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevebrum Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, DC2 said: Unbeatable? They would beat each other from time to time and none of them would average above 11. No different from the Crump, Adams and Pedersen days. Pedersen? He wasn’t in the same league average wise in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robins les Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, DC2 said: It’s not a different issue. Nevertheless, one conversion rate is unsatisfactory, as the top riders score more points more often, the middle riders score up and down, and the bottom riders generally have middling to poor scores. So top riders like Cook have a conversion rate of 1.31, but middling CL riders like Ellis Perks have 1.79. I suspect Anders Rowe (4.38 CL) would have been a 2 pointer in the PL, giving a conversion rate of 2.19. But you can't have a 2 point assessed average in PL, nothing less than 3 & surely the conversion rate is 0.6 meaning an average of 2.63. The conversion rate from PL to CL is 1.6. If you had a movable conversion rate as you suggest, there would be outrage & people saying there was cheating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arnieg Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 A problem easily solved with some simple linear regression Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 1 hour ago, robins les said: But you can't have a 2 point assessed average in PL, nothing less than 3 & surely the conversion rate is 0.6 meaning an average of 2.63. The conversion rate from PL to CL is 1.6. If you had a movable conversion rate as you suggest, there would be outrage & people saying there was cheating. I was looking at a fair conversion rate to CL averages for those PL riders who don’t have one, solely for one league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, stevebrum said: Pedersen? He wasn’t in the same league average wise in the UK. I thought he had a 10 point average for a couple of seasons? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aces51 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 A quick look at the doubling up riders at the end of the season shows that the average conversion factor to convert their PL actual averages to their actual CL averages was 1.253. It varies from 1.93 to convert Wells actual PL average to his actual CL average down to 1.10 to do the same calculation for Jorgensen. As we know the conversion factor used was 1.5, which will increase to 1.6 next season. The evidence shows that 1.5 was too high. However, it was a deliberate BSPA policy to reduce the opportunities for doubling down for riders who didn't start the season in the CL. Bewley fell foul of this during the season when he wanted to get a CL place before he was given rides in Poland and Sweden. Using the 1.5 conversion he was saddled withsomething like a 10.5 CL average. The intention to increase the conversion factor by 0.1 every season, until it reaches 2.0, will make it more and more difficult for riders like Bewley to double down but more and more attractive for riders in the CL, who don't have a PL average, to double up. By way of example, next year Josh Pickering, who has a CL average of 6.93, would have a PL average of 4.33 and in 5 years time, 3.46. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2 Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 4 hours ago, stevebrum said: Pedersen? He wasn’t in the same league average wise in the UK. He topped the averages with 10.15 in 2005, ahead of Adams, Crump and Hancock, and got 9.65 in 2006, a little below them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevebrum Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, DC2 said: He topped the averages with 10.15 in 2005, ahead of Adams, Crump and Hancock, and got 9.65 in 2006, a little below them. That’s 2 seasons out of how many? For consistency as a number one he wasn’t in the same league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevebrum Posted November 1, 2019 Report Share Posted November 1, 2019 2 hours ago, DC2 said: I thought he had a 10 point average for a couple of seasons? 2 out of how many seasons? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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