Dandelion Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 What's the point until waiting until the end of June, the season will be well and truly over by then... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyHonestJohn Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 3 hours ago, Dandelion said: What's the point until waiting until the end of June, the season will be well and truly over by then... Because if you change now you basically change like for like average wise in June you have 2 more points to play with so if everything stayed the same and no averages changed and Danny went you can have a 4 point replacement instead of a 2 point rider or if Simon went a 6 point replacement instead of a 4 point rider So as Tsunami said you might as well give what you have a chance to pull themselves round before chopping and changing for changing sake... Regards THJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruffdiamond Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 But John,,, if the riders averages stayed the same, come the end of June, it would mean that they have under-performed. Riders averages are likely to improve as they are racing for more points. The averages work on being based on 42 points, so you average team, will score 42 points on average. So each team, on average, will have 4 points, (like free points), per match to absorb into their collective team average, so really, each riders average will increase by about 0.6. If a riders average does not increase, by say half a point, it would suggest that they are not performing to their previous average. So, come the end of June, if you have a spare 2 points to play with, you will be really struggling as a team. Although, it might be an idea to bring in a rider that has not ridden this season, on their false 'lower average', thats one without the 0.6 free increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsunami Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 1 hour ago, ruffdiamond said: But John,,, if the riders averages stayed the same, come the end of June, it would mean that they have under-performed. Riders averages are likely to improve as they are racing for more points. The averages work on being based on 42 points, so you average team, will score 42 points on average. So each team, on average, will have 4 points, (like free points), per match to absorb into their collective team average, so really, each riders average will increase by about 0.6. If a riders average does not increase, by say half a point, it would suggest that they are not performing to their previous average. So, come the end of June, if you have a spare 2 points to play with, you will be really struggling as a team. Although, it might be an idea to bring in a rider that has not ridden this season, on their false 'lower average', thats one without the 0.6 free increase. Instead of 40 the real uplift should be to 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruffdiamond Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, Tsunami said: Instead of 40 the real uplift should be to 42. Ease it up gently Dave, ease it up gently 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyHonestJohn Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, ruffdiamond said: But John,,, if the riders averages stayed the same, come the end of June, it would mean that they have under-performed. Correct: However: like I said in the original post to the response that we should be changing and swapping riders out now that my post was "all speculation" and "who knows" what the averages will be in June and it was a "make believe scenario" however after two meaningful meetings in the Shield we are averaging 37.5 points per meeting and after four meetings to date we are averaging 39.75 as a team (if you include the Redcar matches); with the current team rolling averages coming in at 37.95 then take off the 2.5% reduction (for the qualifying riders) this brings the total team average to 37.57; so and this is "pure speculation" it is not impossible for the team average to be at this level come June but as someone stated the team would be in a bit of a predicament (bottom) I would suggest. Last year Workington third in the league with a combined end of season team average of 42.79 (strange when you need 45 to win a match) without any team changes and Sheffield were bottom with 38.60 then Redcar next with 39.66; Lakeside who were fourth had a team average of 44.23 and also didn't make any team changes all season with Edinburgh top of the end of season team averages with 46.44 and only ended up 6th in the league (with a few changes to personnel). What I was trying to do in a moment of boredom (and trying to inject some wit and humour) (to which I failed miserably) was to point out that unforced changes this early in the season are a complete waste of time, Tsunami has hit the nail on the head. Your argument is valid; however; exactly as I have done; you are speculating on what might or might not happen with regards to the averages, if you prove to be right and have that much foresight give me the numbers for the lottery this week I would like to retire and sponsor Speedway as a hobby. I also stated above "Like many often state on here nothing in Speedway is straight forward however these type of conundrums are the ones most like to ponder". If Newcastle continue in the same vein it could be a long hard season and I suggest there would be changes; the only point I was trying to make was "it is folly looking at swapping riders out after the first two matches of the season without there being a very valid reason to do so" Scunny have done it for the right reasons with the young kid they have swapped out so as not to destroy his confidence. Danny Phillips would be the obvious choice however he has been around some time and just come back after a bad injury, he was up over 5.5 points at home in 2017 with a rolling average of 3.5. does he not deserve a bit of time? So to recap my main point is "there is no value IMHO in swapping out riders this early in the season unless possibly a bad injury or "Force Majeure" is inflicted on the team" and by "Force Majeure" I mean something like someone has a total loss of confidence and says they have had enough and they walk or the situation the club found itself in a few year back with the sad demise of Matej Ferjan. So for me no changes please just yet and the numbers will dictate (as ever) who we can have come in whether it be April May or June even up to the cut off date for signings... A team what sticks together wins together Worky Lakeside nil changes and play off finals but its all just numbers at the end of the day. Pick what ever you want and just make something up? Regards THJ Edited April 12, 2019 by TotallyHonestJohn Spelling, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruffdiamond Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 (edited) THJ, the teams average is worked on the scenario of 14 heats (84 points/42 points each team),,, 7 riders x 4 races = 28 races ÷ 1 pair of riders = 14 heats,,, therefore there is no need for the team to average 45/46 to win each match, so Workingtons 42.79 combined average was capable of having won every match Edited April 12, 2019 by ruffdiamond 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyHonestJohn Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 So what's ya point It depends on where the points are scored.... forget heat 15... and does it really matter we are talking about fairy land here not the real world, ifs' ands' maybes' and might never happens plus the team build was 38 and goes to 40 in June and the pubs are open and I'm blowing half a shift who gives a rats.... Regards THJ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruffdiamond Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, TotallyHonestJohn said: So what's ya point It depends on where the points are scored.... forget heat 15... and does it really matter we are talking about fairy land here not the real world, ifs' ands' maybes' and might never happens plus the team build was 38 and goes to 40 in June and the pubs are open and I'm blowing half a shift who gives a rats.... Regards THJ Enjoy The point is that you don't have to have a combined team average much above 42 to win every match, in the land of the fairies Edited April 12, 2019 by ruffdiamond 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsunami Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 1 hour ago, ruffdiamond said: Ease it up gently Dave, ease it up gently Bet you say that to all of them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruffdiamond Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 30 minutes ago, Tsunami said: Bet you say that to all of them. Well it might be big Dave, and you wouldn't want anything to break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TotallyHonestJohn Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 1 hour ago, ruffdiamond said: Enjoy The point is that you don't have to have a combined team average much above 42 to win every match, in the land of the fairies Exactly as in Redcar and Sheffield didn't loose all their matches but look where their team averages ended up... I rest my case.... I think..... Regards THJ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dandelion Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 I wouldn't exactly call Jordan Jenkins in for Danny Phillips a like for like tbh... Plus we need to find riders who can ride our track, if a rider comes in on a similar average to Simon, but can actually ride Brough, then it's an upgrade is it not? It may be like for like on paper, but on shale, maybe not? Isn't that the trick to team building anyway,,, Maybe someone like Mikkel B Andersen might ride Brough better? (I don't remember how he did but just as an example) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruffdiamond Posted April 12, 2019 Report Share Posted April 12, 2019 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Dandelion said: I wouldn't exactly call Jordan Jenkins in for Danny Phillips a like for like tbh... Plus we need to find riders who can ride our track, if a rider comes in on a similar average to Simon, but can actually ride Brough, then it's an upgrade is it not? It may be like for like on paper, but on shale, maybe not? Isn't that the trick to team building anyway,,, Maybe someone like Mikkel B Andersen might ride Brough better? (I don't remember how he did but just as an example) A think it was fairly obvious that Simon would/will struggle at Brough, although some may think that away, on bigger tracks points might come and he might chuck in a few points. He might be able to suss Brough and, should be given time, but he's on his average for a reason. I hate the editor. Edited April 12, 2019 by ruffdiamond Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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