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Wolves 2019


Yampy

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4 minutes ago, Call me wolfie said:

I suspect it was made easier by knowing Scott had another option lined up. Looking forward to the rest of the season now, it's the team PA wanted, let's see how it works out

Wolves are a very good side top 4 material

But i would rather race you at Foxhall with Thorsell and Masters then Nicholls and R/R

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28 minutes ago, Gavan said:

Wolves are a very good side top 4 material

But i would rather race you at Foxhall with Thorsell and Masters then Nicholls and R/R

I would probably agree with you there, Nicholls is much more accomplished at tracks like Ipswich and Peterborough, last nights meeting is probably the reason Jacob wasnt brought back in last week. makes us very strong at home though. 

Edited by Call me wolfie
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On 5/15/2019 at 6:50 PM, Gavan said:

I totally get what you are saying

Nicholls at home scoring 11+2, 9+2, 12+1 and 9+2....are scores from the number 3 position that Thorsell would be expected to score.

Away though Scott has 13+1 and 9+1 and sometimes its away form that counts

Having said that i agree that if Scott moved to number one he may struggle to replicate those scores where (especially at home) Jacob would score more. Scott currently avoids the generally harder heat 13...his 4th ride at the moment is against the opposition numbers 3 and 6 ...easier than facing the opponents 1 and 5

I would also say Scott is outscoring what Morris would have done (my opinion of course)

Don't forget in the PSC the format is different so the number 3 position is no easier than the number 1.  Irrelevant now as the choices have been made and Wolves have stuck by their original selection, which I applaud.  Let's see how the season progresses!

Edited by SPEEDY69
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4 hours ago, SPEEDY69 said:

Don't forget in the PSC the format is different so the number 3 position is no easier than the number 1.  Irrelevant now as the choices have been made and Wolves have stuck by their original selection, which I applaud.  Let's see how the season progresses!

Nicholls rolling average of 6.43 from last 20 meetings. Those all ridden at No 5 or No 3.

Thorssell rolling average of 7.25 from last 20 meetings, almost all ridden at No 1, think a couple at 5.

It's not even close.

 

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4 hours ago, Call me wolfie said:

I would probably agree with you there, Nicholls is much more accomplished at tracks like Ipswich and Peterborough, last nights meeting is probably the reason Jacob wasnt brought back in last week. makes us very strong at home though. 

No he isn't!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where does this myth come from, are you still living in 2012 or something?

6.43 is Nicholls average across his last 20 meetings. His average is that low for a REASON. 

Last night he scored 10 from 6, its at best an average return when riding at no 3, with RR operating at 4 giving you both Heat 12 and Heat 14.

It should also be pointed out, he has that low average without riding at No 1.. by far the hardest position.

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3 minutes ago, BWitcher said:

What absolute nonsense.

 

Why is that nonsense?

Thorsell i dont believe has seen Foxhall and Nicholls knows the place like the back of his hand

Morris does ok but in the lower league 

Personally Thorsell aand Morris will outscore Nicholls and R/R and do beter at most tracks....just that at Foxhall my opinion is that it doesnt make you stronger

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Just now, Gavan said:

Why is that nonsense?

Thorsell i dont believe has seen Foxhall and Nicholls knows the place like the back of his hand

Morris does ok but in the lower league 

Personally Thorsell aand Morris will outscore Nicholls and R/R and do beter at most tracks....just that at Foxhall my opinion is that it doesnt make you stronger

Because Nicholls is a far weaker rider, at any track these days, and RR is even weaker still.

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1 minute ago, Gavan said:

Why is that nonsense?

Thorsell i dont believe has seen Foxhall and Nicholls knows the place like the back of his hand

Morris does ok but in the lower league 

Personally Thorsell aand Morris will outscore Nicholls and R/R and do beter at most tracks....just that at Foxhall my opinion is that it doesnt make you stronger

Nicholls of 10 years ago at the 'old' Foxhall?

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2 minutes ago, BWitcher said:

Because Nicholls is a far weaker rider, at any track these days, and RR is even weaker still.

I believe Nicholls is a weaker rider than Jacob

However at Foxhall (a place Jacob has never ridden i believe) then i would still think he might not do as well as well as Scott just my opinion thats all

I think we could have enough to beat Wolves at home next time as maybe Schlein wont do as well and also we should have Jake back and hopefully better riders than Harris and Bellego

What a cracking rider Luke Becker is a real gem for you guys

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21 minutes ago, BWitcher said:

Nicholls rolling average of 6.43 from last 20 meetings. Those all ridden at No 5 or No 3.

Thorssell rolling average of 7.25 from last 20 meetings, almost all ridden at No 1, think a couple at 5.

It's not even close.

 

League only and of course we all know about lies damn lies and statistics - there are nearly always stats that can back up any point of view.  We know yours. ;) 

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12 minutes ago, SPEEDY69 said:

League only and of course we all know about lies damn lies and statistics - there are nearly always stats that can back up any point of view.  We know yours. ;) 

"League only". 

There was me thinking that was what counted?

You're right, the stats are deceiving.. it shows Nicholls to be within a pt of Thorssell on ability..  but when you factor in their riding positions the difference is about 2pts.

It doesn't matter how you twist it, how you look at it, Nicholls is nowhere close to the level of Thorssell.

Remember when Thorssell was riding at No 3? He was in the top 4 averaged riders in the league.... Is Nicholls?

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1 minute ago, BWitcher said:

"League only". 

There was me thinking that was what counted?

You're right, the stats are deceiving.. it shows Nicholls to be within a pt of Thorssell on ability..  but when you factor in their riding positions the difference is about 2pts.

It doesn't matter how you twist it, how you look at it, Nicholls is nowhere close to the level of Thorssell.

Remember when Thorssell was riding at No 3? He was in the top 4 averaged riders in the league.... Is Nicholls?

I'll humour you.  Not sure why you think only league results reflect whether a rider is better than another??

The latest official 'rolling' averages, which I hate, show Scott on 6.56 and using your figure of 7.25 for Thorsell, makes  it just a 14 point difference over the 20 meetings - so not even a point per meeting!  I'm not sure but I think bonus points are also removed from average calculations?

I have not, nor will not, look back at those last 20 meetings to capture a) who the opposition was in each race b) who the team colleague was in each race c) the track/weather conditions for each meeting d) what each opposing rider scored in those meetings e) whether there were any injuries f) whether there any passes made in those heats g)whether there was any team riding in those heats h) the meeting scoreline at each heat so that we can see the pressure placed on the rider in those heats i)whether there were any tapes infringements, exclusions or mechanical failures.   

I will then be in a more informed position.  What makes us think one rider is better than another is subjective and not simply about points scored.  In any case, I am not arguing that one rider or another is better than another, simply pointing out why it's not simple.  My contention with your argument is that  you said that Nicholls was "far weaker" than Thorsell.  I disagree.

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30 minutes ago, SPEEDY69 said:

I'll humour you.  Not sure why you think only league results reflect whether a rider is better than another??

The latest official 'rolling' averages, which I hate, show Scott on 6.56 and using your figure of 7.25 for Thorsell, makes  it just a 14 point difference over the 20 meetings - so not even a point per meeting!  I'm not sure but I think bonus points are also removed from average calculations?

I have not, nor will not, look back at those last 20 meetings to capture a) who the opposition was in each race b) who the team colleague was in each race c) the track/weather conditions for each meeting d) what each opposing rider scored in those meetings e) whether there were any injuries f) whether there any passes made in those heats g)whether there was any team riding in those heats h) the meeting scoreline at each heat so that we can see the pressure placed on the rider in those heats i)whether there were any tapes infringements, exclusions or mechanical failures.   

I will then be in a more informed position.  What makes us think one rider is better than another is subjective and not simply about points scored.  In any case, I am not arguing that one rider or another is better than another, simply pointing out why it's not simple.  My contention with your argument is that  you said that Nicholls was "far weaker" than Thorsell.  I disagree.

Good god.

I have made it VERY simple for you.

Thorssell achieved an average of 7.25, predominantly from riding at No 1.

Nicholls achieved his average of 6.43 (Not 6.56) from riding at No 5 and most significantly.. at No 3. 

The No 1 position is by far the hardest in the side. 3 is significantly easier, to the tune of around 1.5pts per meeting.

Your other comments are nonsensical at best. 

You 'hate' rolling averages? Why is that, you don't want an accurate assessment of the performance of a rider?

As for 'league results'.. well, that is the relevant competition so forgive me for considering 'league results' to be a good way of determining the abilities of riders competing in the 'league'.

You are right on one thing though.. it isn't that simple.. just looking at the numbers of 6.43 to 7.25 you think Nicholls isn't too far off.. the reality though is very different. Thorssell is way ahead of Nicholls.

There isn't anything to agree with or disagree with. We're not discussing opinions. It is stone cold fact that Thorssell has proven himself better than Nicholls in the last couple of seasons by some distance.

Just for reference.. when Thorssell had the opportunity to ride at No 3/4 the previous season he clocked up a GSA of just under 9 and had one of the best averages in the league. Once again highlighting the significant difference.

Edited by BWitcher
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2 hours ago, SPEEDY69 said:

What makes us think one rider is better than another is subjective and not simply about points scored.  In any case, I am not arguing that one rider or another is better than another, simply pointing out why it's not simple.  My contention with your argument is that  you said that Nicholls was "far weaker" than Thorsell.  I disagree.

The only part I can agree to is that Nicholls isn’t ‘far weaker’ but definitely weaker as the averages over the past 2 or 3 seasons have evidenced.

Averages are fact based however and that’s whether you use the official rolling averages/this seasons averages/ averages with bonus points/ averages that include all competitions/ form based averages. They all tell a true and accurate story.

I agree that whether we think one rider is better than another can be totally subjective although based on like of that rider and/ team that is where some debate tends to happen. 

My only point is that Jacob is a better rider evidenced by averages over the past 3 seasons and I can’t see how anyone can dispute that fact irregardless of how Scott has performed for Wolves this season. May I add a very pleasant surprise that he has done quite well in Wolves colours better than I expect quite a few Wolves fans expected.

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Well, this topic got a bit tasty didn't it.

Scott is where is is and not many riders at his age will be still popping in scores he has. The lack of having a full team hasn't been easy as Scott has had many different team mates to get an understanding with, I think it says much about Wolves as a club they stuck to their word about it being short term and I'm not surprised. A very well run club !!

As a bees fan seeing Rory and Scott in the same team was great, Scott can be proud of his time as a wolves rider and the pressure is on the guys coming in to perform. Thorsell at home is a no brainier but away form hasn't always been great. 

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48 minutes ago, Coventry_Bee said:

Well, this topic got a bit tasty didn't it.

Scott is where is is and not many riders at his age will be still popping in scores he has. The lack of having a full team hasn't been easy as Scott has had many different team mates to get an understanding with, I think it says much about Wolves as a club they stuck to their word about it being short term and I'm not surprised. A very well run club !!

As a bees fan seeing Rory and Scott in the same team was great, Scott can be proud of his time as a wolves rider and the pressure is on the guys coming in to perform. Thorsell at home is a no brainier but away form hasn't always been great. 

Good post, although the issue of Jacob being a poor scorer away is a bit of a myth. Was 6th highest away in 2017, although less in 2018 on just under 7.

Freddie got accused of being poor away from Monmore for a long time but was one of the best away riders for a long time before 2018.

Seems a myth when a rider has such a dominant average at home that his away average is generally poor in comparison however when you compare to other riders it isn’t as bad as you would expect.

For example Scott’s away average last season is just over 5.5! 

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1 hour ago, ProudtobeaBrummie said:

Come on guys this is 2019 not 2014  i think it is unquestionable that Jacob is now a far better rider than Scott is nowadays. Jacob coming back in will really strengthen Wolves now both home and away .

I only agreed with the tracks Jacob has limited or no experience on, most notably Ipswich. Otherwise I totally agree that Jacob makes us stronger overall, of that I have no doubt.

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