2018 Premiership Predictions

[stevebrum]

3 hours ago, geoff58 said:

YEAH RIGHT 

Right decision. 

3 hours ago, Steve Shovlar said:

Lindgren was 100% at fault. Take the blinkers off.

Ditto.

[Starman2006]

48 minutes ago, scottyfan said:

1.Leicester

2.Belle Vue

3.Somerset

4.Rye House

5.Poole

6.Wolverhampton

7.Kings Lynn

8.Swindon

Couldnt resist could you... The black cloud strikes again..

Edited February 10, 2018 by Starman2006

[Mattfordfan]

1. Poole - Awesome team from top to bottom and if we don't win then serious questions need to be asked. 2 ringers on false averages in Woryna and Szczepaniak. C. Holder should put a point on his average. Kurtz will improve his average. Grajczonek and Sundstrom will at least hold there averages. Shanes will only improve after getting a team spot at Sheffield. 

2. Leicester - Love the look of this line-up. Vaculik as the No.1. Backed up by 2 experienced HL's in Andersen and King. Pieszczek is the trump card for me. Strong reserve all season too.

3. Belle Vue - Few question marks for me but will be good for top 4. Tungate and Bewley will improve there averages. Drozdz is the key.

4. Rye House - Yes its an old aged team but I cant see Rye losing much at home all season long tbh (2 meetings tops). The new Lakeside of the top flight and I expect them to get 4th spot due to the home form.

5. Wolverhampton - Ranking Wolves just above Swindon because the reserves are better than Swindon's apart from that both teams are poor tbh. Thorssell at No.1 is a mistake. Greaves will struggle due to lack of meetings. 

6. Swindon - Poor poor side. Morris and Bellego will not hold there averages. Davey is no good. Batchelor is unreliable. Too much pressure on Wajtknecht who should be the No.7 and not No.6. Ellis and Musielak could improve there averages but that's about it tbh.

7. Somerset - 1 man team tbh apart from Doyle you cant see where the Heat wins are going to come from away from home. 

8. King's Lynn - Rubbish tbh. NKI great signing but apart from that Lynn have Lambert who doesn't want to be there and then a bunch of 5.00 pointers with no 3rd Heat Leader.

[Bagpuss]

53 minutes ago, Matt Ford Fan said:

8. King's Lynn - Rubbish tbh. NKI great signing but apart from that Lynn have Lambert who doesn't want to be there and then a bunch of 5.00 pointers with no 3rd Heat Leader.

But always a strong reserve, something most people seem to ignore. Could even be two if Andersen comes off.

That said we do look 8th strongest, although I don't think there is too much in it 4th - 8th.

[hyderd]

On 2/10/2018 at 12:32 PM, stevebrum said:

50/50 no fact. 

It's no fact but it aint 50/50 either, the vast majority of people who were there and those who have seen the video of the crash put the blame clearly on Lingren.

[stevebrum]

1 hour ago, hyderd said:

It's no fact but it aint 50/50 either, the vast majority of people who were there and those who have seen the video of the crash put the blame clearly on Lingren.

I've read equally as many blaming Bjerre so depends which way you look at it. 50/50 is easily it's best description. 

I certainly see it as one that could have gone either way.

[hyderd]

13 hours ago, stevebrum said:

I've read equally as many blaming Bjerre so depends which way you look at it. 50/50 is easily it's best description. 

I certainly see it as one that could have gone either way.

I guess it's one that we'll never agree on, so best leave it there. 

[SomersetBlue]

On 20/02/2018 at 6:35 PM, Matt Ford Fan said:

1. Poole - Awesome team from top to bottom and if we don't win then serious questions need to be asked. 2 ringers on false averages in Woryna and Szczepaniak. C. Holder should put a point on his average. Kurtz will improve his average. Grajczonek and Sundstrom will at least hold there averages. Shanes will only improve after getting a team spot at Sheffield. 

2. Leicester - Love the look of this line-up. Vaculik as the No.1. Backed up by 2 experienced HL's in Andersen and King. Pieszczek is the trump card for me. Strong reserve all season too.

3. Belle Vue - Few question marks for me but will be good for top 4. Tungate and Bewley will improve there averages. Drozdz is the key.

4. Rye House - Yes its an old aged team but I cant see Rye losing much at home all season long tbh (2 meetings tops). The new Lakeside of the top flight and I expect them to get 4th spot due to the home form.

5. Wolverhampton - Ranking Wolves just above Swindon because the reserves are better than Swindon's apart from that both teams are poor tbh. Thorssell at No.1 is a mistake. Greaves will struggle due to lack of meetings. 

6. Swindon - Poor poor side. Morris and Bellego will not hold there averages. Davey is no good. Batchelor is unreliable. Too much pressure on Wajtknecht who should be the No.7 and not No.6. Ellis and Musielak could improve there averages but that's about it tbh.

7. Somerset - 1 man team tbh apart from Doyle you cant see where the Heat wins are going to come from away from home. 

8. King's Lynn - Rubbish tbh. NKI great signing but apart from that Lynn have Lambert who doesn't want to be there and then a bunch of 5.00 pointers with no 3rd Heat Leader.

You really don't know a lot about Speedway do you. 

[Bagpuss]

1 hour ago, rebelwonderkid said:

You really don't know a lot about Speedway do you. 

There's not an awful lot in there to be disagreed with really, one or two little things but he makes many good points. The top three look way ahead if the rest but after that it's fairly tight.

[SomersetBlue]

2 hours ago, Bagpuss said:

There's not an awful lot in there to be disagreed with really, one or two little things but he makes many good points. The top three look way ahead if the rest but after that it's fairly tight.

In terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

[g13webb]

54 minutes ago, rebelwonderkid said:

In terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

 I admire your loyalty, even at the extent of blinded vision.   Make no mistake,  when Somerset is referred to a one man team it is because in Doyle they have a great rider who will win most races at each of you meetings.  The other riders are all decent people capable of winning some.     Your 2nd and 3rd HL are of the lowest CMA in the league.    Yes you may have performed well on your travels last year and scored decent points, but that doesn't mean anything this years.   This is a new ball game with different sides...

Looking at all the teams so far   in my eyes Somerset are one of the weakest......    that being a structured analysis  with no biased attachment....... I wish I could be more optimistic .... Sorry........ 

[Mattfordfan]

6 hours ago, rebelwonderkid said:

You really don't know a lot about Speedway do you. 

I admire your loyalty to Somerset I really do but away from home apart from Doyle. Who would score big points and win Heats regularly? There isn't anyone. 

1 hour ago, rebelwonderkid said:

In terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

Not biased at all. 

Just telling you the truth that's all. Wright or Lawson aren't going to score 9 points a meeting on the road every week. Doyle needs back up like he did last year in Morris.

 

 

[Daniel Smith]

16 hours ago, rebelwonderkid said:

In terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

Like my team King's Lynn you have a great No1. After that heat winners are hard to come by. Even worse than that is heat advantages.

Both of our clubs have failed to put together teams that look competitive throughout. 

[Bald Bloke]

On ‎24‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 8:39 PM, rebelwonderkid said:

n terms of calling Somerset a one man team. He is either extremely biased or doesn't know anything speedway. 

Without Doyle we picked up victories at Belle Vue, King's Lynn and Poole last season and only lost by 6 at Leicester. We have essentially got twice the rider of Grajczonek in Doyle and vastly improving riders in Allen, Holder and BWD. Then an ever improving Wrighty and Lawson put in some decent scores too. In what way is that a one man team? Add in the fact 5 track specialists and Holder who rides the track well. That doesn't seem a one man team to me. 

Hope you keep Holder  happy 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Bald Bloke

[g13webb]

					Analysis of Teams Riders Positions
																										KEY
Rider No.		BelleVue			Kings Lynn			Leicester			Poole			Rye House			Somerset			Swindon			Wolves			1. Best
No 1  HL		Craig Cook			Niels K Iversen			Mart Vaculik			Brad Kurtz			Chris Harris			Jason Doyle			Nick Morris			Jab Torsell			2
Average		8.45     4			9.04     2			8.00     3			8.08     8			7.63    7			9.69    1			8.87     6			8.64    5
No 2  HL		Max Friske			Rob Lambert			HanAndersen			JosGrajczonk			Scot Nicolls			Charl Wright			TroyBatchelor			Sam Masters			3
Average		7'39     2			7.38    5			7.75    1			7.34     6			7.48     7			6.69    8			7.63     3			7.92     4
No 3  HL		Stev Worrall			Th Jorgensen			Danny King			LinSundstrom			KrzKaspersak			Rich Lawson			Dav Bellego			Rory Schlein			4
Average		6,77     5			5.93   6			6.66    4			7.22    1			6.86      2			6.43     7			7.37     8			7.72     3
No4  S/S		Roh Tungate			Ty Procter			Krz Pieszczek			Chris Holder			Eddy Kennett			Jack Holder			Tob Musielak			Kyle Howarth			5
Average		6.18     3			5.50    7			6.50    4			7.16    1			6.39     8			5.82     5			7.37      2			6.64    6
No 5 S/S		Dam Drozdz			Lewis Rose			Josh Bates			Kasp Woryna			Ben Barker			Jake Allen			Adam Ellis			Cam Heeps			6
Average		5.00      8			5.25    4			5.52    5			4.65    1			6.00     6			5.07     3			5.46     2			5.25    7
No 6  Res		Dan Bewley			Lewis kerr			Kyle Newman			Mat Szczpani			Stuart Robson			Brad Wil Dean			Zach Wajknec			Ash Morris			7
Average		4,71    2			5.06     4			4.86   7			4.54    1			5.72     3			4.67    5			3.21     6			3.75      8
No 7  Res		Jye Etheridge			Kas Andersen			James Sargent			James Shane			Max Clegg			Jon Jepersen			Mich Davey			Nat Greaves			8. Worse
Average		2.00      6			4.00     3			2,56    5			2.95    2			2.00     7			4.00      4			2.00     8			2.54    1
Positional Totals		30			31			29			20			40			33			35			34

[g13webb]

Freezing cold outside,  not much on the tele, and in the quietness of a warm office,  I wasted the available time to  take a structure analysis of each of this year’s teams competing in the Premier League  ( a sad existence really.)

Looking at the graph above, I have placed all the riders in the position their CMA indicated, knowing full well they will change frequently, but we need a starting point.  I have then compared them to those in equal positions and rated them 1 to 8, the best to the worse, to form some sort of comparison between the riders and the teams…   Of cause, opinions will vary, and my view would bring a different outcome to others but, having a structure approach, backed by some 50 years of spectating, I’ve tried to be fair in my assessments, where favourites are few and far between.

Looking along the first row of No1 HL Riders, I have placed Doyle as the best, followed by Niels, Vaculik and Cook.  I have placed Kurtz and Harris as the worse, but it could have gone either way, but this was my way to evaluate the strength of each team starting out.   I repeated this process through each of the remaining team positions to finally arrive at the point of where it brings all the thoughts into comparison.

Looking at the results bring together some amazing information, that I find very interesting.  Some teams seem to have been perceived better than they should, and others have hidden their obvious strengths pretty well.   We need to forget about Poole as they are way and above better than any other team. Their position total of only 20 illustrates this.   The fact most other teams are separated by just a few points indicates Poole’s strength are streets ahead of the rest.….

The biggest surprise to me was how Lynn stacked up.  I purposely guarded against any favouritism and feel any assessment was rightly placed.  In my original prediction, (on Page 6) I placed them nearer the bottom, thinking they had too much to do. Now when looking at other teams in similar comparison, then yes, they could achieve a PO position.  It’s interesting to note, that the majority of teams are only a few points apart.  A point that proves most of them will be competitive and in with a shout.  The one team that surprised me was Rye House.  On 40 pts they came in some way adrift of the rest.  What wasn’t taken into consideration was their massive advantage their own track provides, and this will have a big bearing on overall results.   Looking at their riders, I still believe their team is one of the weakest, but that home advantage will be a big leveller against better sides…

So in conclusion,  Poole seem to be on a different planet from the rest,  Leicester, Belle Vue, KingsLynn, Swindon, Wolves and Somerset are all separated by only a point, with Rye House having a bit to make up.   Be interesting to see how it all pans out..

[hyderd]

To confusing,

[Najjer]

55 minutes ago, hyderd said:

To confusing,

Makes perfect sense to me, and quite interesting to see actually. It's no surprise Poole clearly start as favourites.

[Najjer]

On 24/02/2018 at 5:36 PM, Bagpuss said:

There's not an awful lot in there to be disagreed with really, one or two little things but he makes many good points. The top three look way ahead if the rest but after that it's fairly tight.

I'd agree with that too. Somerset has without doubt been built to hold their own at home, which is something we struggled to do at times last season and lost a few meetings in the crucial final heats. I seem to remember we lost to Kings Lynn, Swindon and Wolves early doors last year by a few points simply because we didn't have a real no.1. Hopefully with Doyle in the team that should now be sorted. I've no doubt we will get murdered at a few places away from home mind. Who knows what the young Dane will do too, I know literally nothing about him so he could be good, he could be shocking.

 

[B.V 72]

4 hours ago, g13webb said:

Freezing cold outside,  not much on the tele, and in the quietness of a warm office,  I wasted the available time to  take a structure analysis of each of this year’s teams competing in the Premier League  ( a sad existence really.)

Looking at the graph above, I have placed all the riders in the position their CMA indicated, knowing full well they will change frequently, but we need a starting point.  I have then compared them to those in equal positions and rated them 1 to 8, the best to the worse, to form some sort of comparison between the riders and the teams…   Of cause, opinions will vary, and my view would bring a different outcome to others but, having a structure approach, backed by some 50 years of spectating, I’ve tried to be fair in my assessments, where favourites are few and far between.

Looking along the first row of No1 HL Riders, I have placed Doyle as the best, followed by Niels, Vaculik and Cook.  I have placed Kurtz and Harris as the worse, but it could have gone either way, but this was my way to evaluate the strength of each team starting out.   I repeated this process through each of the remaining team positions to finally arrive at the point of where it brings all the thoughts into comparison.

Looking at the results bring together some amazing information, that I find very interesting.  Some teams seem to have been perceived better than they should, and others have hidden their obvious strengths pretty well.   We need to forget about Poole as they are way and above better than any other team. Their position total of only 20 illustrates this.   The fact most other teams are separated by just a few points indicates Poole’s strength are streets ahead of the rest.….

The biggest surprise to me was how Lynn stacked up.  I purposely guarded against any favouritism and feel any assessment was rightly placed.  In my original prediction, (on Page 6) I placed them nearer the bottom, thinking they had too much to do. Now when looking at other teams in similar comparison, then yes, they could achieve a PO position.  It’s interesting to note, that the majority of teams are only a few points apart.  A point that proves most of them will be competitive and in with a shout.  The one team that surprised me was Rye House.  On 40 pts they came in some way adrift of the rest.  What wasn’t taken into consideration was their massive advantage their own track provides, and this will have a big bearing on overall results.   Looking at their riders, I still believe their team is one of the weakest, but that home advantage will be a big leveller against better sides…

So in conclusion,  Poole seem to be on a different planet from the rest,  Leicester, Belle Vue, KingsLynn, Swindon, Wolves and Somerset are all separated by only a point, with Rye House having a bit to make up.   Be interesting to see how it all pans out..

Which ever way you work it out Poole on paper are a lot stronger than the rest.Mostly down to the fact that the BSPA have allowed old out off date averages to be used for much improved riders.

This is great for Poole and their fans and well done mr Ford for putting this team together all within this years rules.

But the problem for the rest of us is that every other team is quite evenly matched and  at this point without Poole it would be hard to pick a winner.So with the BSPA allowing the out of date averages it has in my opinion spoilt what should have been the most evenly matched league in years.So well done again the BSPA you have again shot yourselves in the foot because if most teams later on in the season were still in with a shot of the play offs and winning the league a lot more supporters would turn up to support there team every week.Runaway teams are good for their own supporters but other clubs support will drop off as soon as they know they have no chance of winning sod all.

All we can hope is that like last year Poole do not perform as well on the track as their team on paper says they should and evens things up.

Edited February 26, 2018 by B.V 72