2018 Premiership Predictions

[poole keith]

excellent piece of work webb,obviously there will some differences of opinion but overall very good interpretation  of relative team strengths.also difficult to argue against bv72s post above

[1 valve]

2 hours ago, B.V 72 said:

 with the BSPA allowing the out of date averages it has in my opinion spoilt what should have been the most evenly matched league in years.

The 2018 season may turn out not to be as one sided as we all think it could be. In terms of delivering improved results on their opening averages the riders of Poole have still got to "do it" and this will be easier said than done.

Taking the CMA for each rider and ranking the riders accordingly across each position and totally ignoring "ringers & personal opinion" then clearly Poole have a lot to do to improve and live up to expectations. as the ranking of teams based on 1v1 2v2 3v3 etc looks like this:

1. Wolves
2. Leicester
3. Rye House
4. Kings Lynn
5. Swindon
6. Poole
7. Somerset
8. Belle Vue.

To be clear I am not saying this is how the league will finish but it does show the type of "swing" required (say) by Belle Vue and Poole to make the play offs whilst as an example, a team such as Rye House with a  specialist track and experienced heads for away meetings could be tough to turn over.

Personally in terms of Poole I am not convinced C Holder will come good as some think (I hope he does cuz I liked him when he was fully stoked and winning Gp's) and the Poles have to learn a few away tracks. There is plenty for the other teams to have a go at and give us the 2018 season we all want..great racing and hard to predict meetings with a few surprises thrown in for good measure.

A dry sunny summer would be good too!

Edited February 26, 2018 by 1 valve

[Steve Shovlar]

31 minutes ago, geoff58 said:

poole will not win the league !! watch this space !!

I am watching but nothing happened in the last 10 mins. Odds in your favour when all teams start equal and injuries can occur. But I believe Poole will win it this year baring any injuries.

As for the analysis, interesting opinion.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Steve Shovlar

[SomersetBlue]

I still stick to what I say and that is that Somerset look strong people may think it's blind loyalty but I think out of everyone we have the most important from top to bottom. Allen, Holder and BWD should improve their averages and Wright and Lawson are both heat leaders at home, if at least one of them can replicate that away then I really don't see that being a bad side. 

Belle Vue have a good reserve partnership but you can't say that top 5 is as good as last season, Cook is no where near the level of Bjerre personally and Fricke has a lot riding on him. 

King's Lynn actually look decent to me with a top heat leader double act and a strong reserve all they need is a solid middle order which I think they have. 

Leicester look good but it remains to be seen how Vaculik and Pieszczek get on they are the key.

Poole look the strongest and I don't blame them for working with the tools given to them but they do have riders on outdated averages which has given them an advantage, i'm sure any team would have done the same though.

Rye House have gone for strength in depth and will be decent at home with Kennett and Barker basically third heat leaders around Hoddesdon but away will be their problem. 

Swindon will obviously miss Doyle as Morris is not to his level but Musielak and Batchelor will be solid scorers Bellego is inconsistent and the reserves relies on Wajtknechts improvement. 

Wolves like Rye will be tricky at home as Thorsell will be an adequate no. 1 but away they will face trouble but I don't think it's a really bad side with Masters, Schlien and Howarth being decent plus Heeps was good for the Rebels. Greaves too showed improvement in himself from a rider I never really rated. 

[Phil The Ace]

On 05/02/2018 at 7:04 PM, poolebolton said:

Matt S average is 2.361 in Poland which translates to 9.44. 

Woryna who rode Extraliga was 1.973 which translates to 7.89. 

Don' know why anyone is even discussing this. If Poole don't win the league it will be the biggest shock since Wigan beat city last week 

 

EDIT# not sure why I've quoted you @poolebolton

 

I never meant to 

Edited February 26, 2018 by Phil The Ace

[Steve Shovlar]

13 minutes ago, geoff58 said:

according to the odds you are the boomakers favourite  advantage you  me thinks ??? lol  just like last season 

No we are far stronger in 2018 compared to the last couple of years. Looking forward to coming up to Belle Vue and smashing you!

[poolebolton]

2 minutes ago, Phil The Ace said:

Don' know why anyone is even discussing this. If Poole don't win the league it will be the biggest shock since Wigan beat city last week 

 

EDIT# not sure why I've quoted you @poolebolton

 

I never meant to 

No worries. 

[ouch]

1 hour ago, 1 valve said:

The 2018 season may turn out not to be as one sided as we all think it could be. In terms of delivering improved results on their opening averages the riders of Poole have still got to "do it" and this will be easier said than done.

Taking the CMA for each rider and ranking the riders accordingly across each position and totally ignoring "ringers & personal opinion" then clearly Poole have a lot to do to improve and live up to expectations. as the ranking of teams based on 1v1 2v2 3v3 etc looks like this:

1. Wolves
2. Leicester
3. Rye House
4. Kings Lynn
5. Swindon
6. Poole
7. Somerset
8. Belle Vue.

To be clear I am not saying this is how the league will finish but it does show the type of "swing" required (say) by Belle Vue and Poole to make the play offs whilst as an example, a team such as Rye House with a  specialist track and experienced heads for away meetings could be tough to turn over.

Personally in terms of Poole I am not convinced C Holder will come good as some think (I hope he does cuz I liked him when he was fully stoked and winning Gp's) and the Poles have to learn a few away tracks. There is plenty for the other teams to have a go at and give us the 2018 season we all want..great racing and hard to predict meetings with a few surprises thrown in for good measure.

A dry sunny summer would be good too!

Suprised at The Aces placing, I thought they’d be around 5th or 6th. 

A lot to do like you say. 

[Gavan]

Poole are over whelming favourites just like last season when it all went totally wrong.

Last season we was told:

KK is a far better option then Holder

Kurtz and Holder jnr were the new turbo twins

Hans would be a solid heat leader

Kyle Newman is Mr Poole and will not let anyone down and up his scoring

Nicolai Klindt is a number one at reserve and will score bucket loads

James Shanes is one of the best young Brits

Out of all of that only Kurtz, Hans and Shanes came out with any credit.

 

So all this talk of what Poole will do this season can go so wrong again.

Kurtz will be fine

Holder and Sundstrom have doubts about them no question , and is Linus a better option then Hans?

The 2 poles could be anything but thats exactly it...anything. Continental form doesnt always translate.

Its all well and good being happy with your team and i can understand the excitement from Poole fans.....but some of the comments on here about how easy it will be and how much better they are than everyone else is just daft............pride comes before a fall

[Sidney the robin]

Belle Vue for me i like the look of that side,  Cook hopefully is fit and well and can have a strong season..Tungate and Bewley to improve there averages and if Fricke can up his game it really is a  good top four with Worrall also very capable.Drozdz is the key I think he will be fine at home away will be more difficult even Etheridge can do his job and average three.       Poole to make play offs not totally convinced that this team is the Manchester City of British speedway but a certain top four place and i think Swindon and Leicester can also reach the last four.Swindon look it is not a sexy side but i believe we will be hard to beat at home with maybe a few defeats away from home but    Ellis and Zach to improve and i believe Zach could be one of the big plusses for Swindon this year.As for the others if there are not any changes King's Lynn  look set for bottom spot with loads of pressure on Lambert and  Jorgensen.

 

[Steve0]

3 hours ago, Steve Shovlar said:

I am watching but nothing happened in the last 10 mins. Odds in your favour when all teams start equal and injuries can occur. But I believe Poole will win it this year baring any injuries.

As for the analysis, interesting opinion.

..and some are more equal than others!

[MrMungo]

So, a slow day at work....:

Belle Vue

I think the side has a much better look to it than last year, even if not quite so strong in the big heats. Whilst I would prefer a Brit to be named @ 7, I think Etheridge is a decent capture and I expect he will surprise a fair few people, and should take some of the pressure away from Bewley. Bewley is the key man; if he can kick on, they are strong. If not, it does look like they have a long tail away from home on some tracks. Bewley struggled on some away tracks, Etheridge going to many places for the first time, Tungate not always being a great traveller, Drozdz will likely find some tracks a challenge, etc. Will also be interesting to see how Cook deals with being in the GPs too. The side should be terrific at home, but question marks over the away form.

Prediction: Play-Offs + a change mid-season to increase away potency.

Key Man: Dan Bewley

King's Lynn

Despite the Whingeathon on the KL thread, I think the side looks okay. I don't think Iversen will be quite the force as he has been, but if Lambert gets his head down and stops whinging they have a top 2 as strong as any - on their day, at least! Kerr/Rose/Proctor will also ensure there's plenty of strength at reserve allowing Andersen time to settle. It'll be most interesting to see how Andersen settles in, reports I have heard from Denmark suggest he is even more forceful than Nicki used to be - can't wait to see what Trees will make of him! For me, it's Jørgensen who will make or break their play-off aspirations. They need him to make the next step up to make the third heat leader position his, and if he can do that, they may sneak into the Top 4, if not, I reckon about 6th is likely.

Prediction: 6th

Key Man: Thomas Jørgensen

Leicester

It's great to see Leicester put together an attractive side, but they do often appear to be one of those clubs who struggle to convert good sides into points.

Not entirely sure what to expect. They have the sort of side that I think could go to Poole and nearly pull off a shock win, but at the same time go to Somerset a few nights later and struggle to get over 30. May well be part of their charm. Vaculik is a great addition to the league, but @ 1, there's a fair bit of pressure on him to hit the ground running. If he performs well, and if KP takes to British Speedway, they look very strong and will probably be Poole's biggest challenges. If they struggle for whatever reason, they could struggle to make the play-offs.

Prediction: Scrape into the play-offs.

Key Man: Martin Vaculik

Poole

Ford has put together bit of a surprising side, but a very, very strong side nonetheless. The 2 new Poles may not replicate their contentional form, but have no doubt they will still make a mockery over their dubious starting averages. A well-balanced side with no major weak links. Will probably become stronger as the season goes on; think Holder being @ 1 would give the side a more natural look. As things stand, can only see injuries standing in the way, unless another side has a major improver in their ranks.

Prediction: Top by about 18 points!

Key Man: Chris Holder

Rye House

I liked the Rye side of '17, they didn't really shine as I expected, but am going to back them again!

KK will make or break their season. If he can get anywhere close to his best, KK @ 1 with Harris and Nicholls the other heat-leaders look a bloody potent spearhead. They're also guaranteed pretty much to have an awesome option at reserve all year too.

But they're a bit like Leicester. If everything goes well for them, I expect they will be right up there, but can also see them struggling if things don't quite work out.

Prediction: Sneaking the final play-off spot

Key Man: KK

Somerset

Top #1 and solid at reserve all year long. Will be very tough to beat at home, although far from less impossible as most riders tend to take to the track quite well. Away form could be a struggle though. They are very similar to KL in many ways, and like KL they will require someone to make the next step up (to support Doyle). My gut feeling is that Holder is the best bet, but any of the "Others" could potentially do it. 

Think they'll be in the mix with KL and Rye House for the final play-off spot, but ultimately finishing just short.

Prediction: 5th

Key Man: Jack Holder

Swindon

I like Mitchell, but there is no way in hell he is a Premiership rider.

Waj should be, and would be a decent #7, but will find it tough @ 6. They are going to struggle in the reserve heats.

Nor do I think they are anywhere near as strong at the top end. Batchelor can be hit and miss (last I heard he was without a mechanic for the year, as last year's is helping Hans Andersen), Bellego struggled badly towards the end of last season so quite what to expect of him is anyone's guess, Musielak was excellent last year but see limited improvement from him, and think Morris overperformed for Swindon last year.

If, and it's a big if, they change the track mid-season, any HTA will be gone too, although like many I am not convinced it will ever happen.

That being said, you just know that 7 won't last the season. When Morris' average takes a dive, and they can get a better reserve in for Davey, they will be a completly different side. One change can completly turn a side's fortunes - like last year.

Prediction: 8th

Key Man: David Bellego - he needs to bring the Frenchman that started the season, not the one at the end of the season.

Wolverhampton

Wolves are in much the same boat as Swindon, but are a bit stronger. I can't see that side lasting too long. Wolves have made changes in recent seasons to change their fortunes around, and am expecting much the same this year.

Good to see Morris back in the Premiership, where he needs to be but think either himself or Heeps could be in a vulnerable position if they don't score well early on.

Prediction: 7th

Key Man: Jacob Thorsell - he's excellent round Monmore but returning from a big injury & @ #1 is a tough ask.

 

Poole, aside, I think this year could be one of the closest yet for the play-off places. Heck, if Swindon and Wolves make the odd change here and there, I can imagine a scenario where there's not a lot between 2nd and 8th place. Should be a good year. Hopefully.

[Call me wolfie]

All you guys tipping Wolves to finish as low as 7th, I'm intrigued to know who you think will trouble us on home shale because for us to finish that low a fair few will have to. Belle Vue seem the most likely to beat us at home I think but don't see too much problem from the others

[Bagpuss]

As per usual Mr Mungo, that post is a thing of beauty.

[poolebolton]

MR Mungo that is one the best written posts ive read in a long time! 

[MrMungo]

40 minutes ago, Call me wolfie said:

All you guys tipping Wolves to finish as low as 7th, I'm intrigued to know who you think will trouble us on home shale because for us to finish that low a fair few will have to. Belle Vue seem the most likely to beat us at home I think but don't see too much problem from the others

As one of the Sinful Seven, I'll explain my reasoning - however flawed it may be!

I don't actually think the side is bad, per se, but I don't see any sides in the league that are being run on the cheap. It is probably as competitive of a league as I can remember. In previous years, there were always one or two teams that could be described as "easy pickings", but none this year.

I can think of many teams who could challenge Wolves at Monmore (or WV2 for TNT), but Belle Vue wouldn't be my first choice at all.

2 spring to mind from the off: Leicester and Rye House.

Rye House have a side full of WV2 track specialists + Kasprzak. I would expect them to do very well there.

Leicester, too, have a number of riders who can ride the track very well. Or riders who I expect could do. The only exception would be KP who remains an unknown at this stage, but riders do sometimes pick up an injury in Poland on a Sunday which takes a few days to shake off. If they were able to use R/R and give extra rides to Kyle "I can p**s past Tai Woffinden round here" Newman, I would  look at them as a side who could do very well.

Obviously, it's all ifs and buts at this stage of the year, but I think any team with a strong top order could pose some problems for Wolves.

[Phil The Ace]

58 minutes ago, Call me wolfie said:

All you guys tipping Wolves to finish as low as 7th, I'm intrigued to know who you think will trouble us on home shale because for us to finish that low a fair few will have to. Belle Vue seem the most likely to beat us at home I think but don't see too much problem from the others

Belle vue at wolves just doesn't go. 

 

We are bloody awful at your place. 3 points are safe against us 

[DC2]

On 26/02/2018 at 5:04 PM, Steve Shovlar said:

No we are far stronger in 2018 compared to the last couple of years. Looking forward to coming up to Belle Vue and smashing you!

 

Ahh, there it is: will the real Steve Shovlar please stand up!

No wonder everyone hates Poole.

[ouch]

I’m pleased that people think we’re finally going to show consistent home form as for the last two years we’ve had the poorest of form out of the top three teams but conversely we’ve been decent away. 

Ken and Jack combined averaged 8.50 away last year and whilst I don’t think Jay and Damien will match that I hoping four from them plus some improvement from the rest will see us sneak a few bonus points. 

Must admit though I’d be happy to go with the pundits and see us restrict those home losses. 

[Bald Bloke]

Looks like Poole.But I tipped them last. season.Not had a bet in 2018.