Assessed Averages

[arnieg]

In a couple of threads I suggested that an easy way to produce assessed averages would be to

I could do it in a couple of hours using data already in existence

I'd use dolgin's rankings, starting by doing linear regression on all those riders who have 2017 British averages. That would give a formula that would provide an average for every rider. ( I would reduce the average of Americans by 10% because I think dolgin's methodology over-rates them).

And finally I would round to the nearest half point).

And I would use a 1.25 multiplier to go from PL to CL.

 

I have now done it (and it took less than two hours)

I used Dolgin's rankings at 30 September (topped by Tai Woffinden on 4701 ranking points and end of season PL GSA averages for all riders (61) with a PL GSA achieved in 2017 over 3.00.

 

The regression formula came out as:

Formula:     Assessed Average   =   (ranking points – 1118)

                                 ---------------------------------

                                          347.3

 

Here's the scatter graph:

And the list of assessed riders (note it includes anyone without a PL or CL GSA achieved in 2017 (so it includes riders like Stefan Nielsen, Tobias Busch and Davey Watt)

And a list of assessments:

 

10.5	Woffinden
10	Zmarzlik
9.5	Zagar	Dudek	Hancock
9	Laguta	Laguta	Pawlicki	Pawlicki	Sayfutdinov	Vaculik	Pedersen
8.5	Janowski	Kolodziej	hampel	Iversen	Milik	Wozniak	Jonsson
8	Lindback	Drabik	Kildemand	Sundstrom	Lebedevs	Holta
7.5	Jepsen Jensen	Miedzinski	Protasiewicz	Michelsen	Ljung	Woryna	Bech	Zengota
7	Smektala	Okoniewski	Thomsen	Crump	Jamrog	Smolinski	Mat Szczepaniak	Mroczka	Korneliussen
6.5	Janniro	Jedrzejak	K Gomolski	Fajfer	Wolbert	Bogdanovs	Karpov	Buczkowski	Przedpelski
6.5	Ulamek	Czaja	D Davidsson	Kosciuch	P Aspgren	Pieszczek	F Jakobsen	Bach
6	Walasek	Kudryashov	J Davidsson	Pavlic	Lampart	B Pedersen	Jablonski	Krcmar	Jeleniewski
6	Covatti	Puodzuks	KK Hansen	Lyager	P Karlsson
5.5	M Ruml	Franc	M Nowak	Berntzon	Berge	Gizatulin	Gala	Kroner	Gafurov
5.5	D Balinski	Miskowiak	Kubera	Kulakov	Miesiac	Tarasenko
5	Watt	K Jablonski	Brzozowski	Karczmarz	Kus	Koza	C Vissing	J Andersson	Eklof
5	Polis	Palovaara	Cyfer	R Jensen	Bober	Hjelmland	Borodulin
4.5	Fisher	J Jorgensen	Mazur	Hartel	Busk Jakobsen	M B Andersen	K Andersen	Kostigovs	Jeppesen
4.5	J Kling	Dolny	Busch	Chugunov	Thornblom	Stachyra	Ajtner Gollob	A Gomolski	Nissen
4.5	Adamczewski	Borowicz	Drodz	T Sorensen	Jedrzewski	Skornicki	Monberg	Kaczmarek
4.5	Risager	Tabaka	Stichauer	Kuciapa	K Lykke
4	Lindman	Melnichuk	Grobauer	Mads Hansen	Z Holub	St Nielsen	S Burza	Michalovs	L Sowka
4	Fox	Becker	Manzares	B Bast	Nicol	Novratil	Thaysen	Alden	M Tresarrieu
4	Chmiel	Castagna	Melgren	Sogaard	Gruchalski	Chalov	Fierlej	R Kling	P Hansen
4	Adamczak	Logachev	F Eriksson	Fienhage	Tornqvist	V Bergstrom	Mag Karlsson	suchanek	Puszakowski
4	Dilger

 

[MattK]

Good job. It must have taken you ages to format that table.

Out of interest, what assessed averages do riders with a 2017 CMA come out at? That would be an good way to calibrate the equation.

[Bagpuss]

That table makes a lot of sense, good job.

[racers and royals]

If the BSPA were shown a scatter graph they would take one look at it and scatter !!!!!!

[dontforgetthefueltapsbruv]

Excellent effort arnieg

Such a shame the BSPA cant adopt this or something similar to remove the dubious thoughts many inevitably have with the current arrangements

[cyclone]

Based on Arnie's  treatise, the three foreign newcomers  announced for the CL would appear to be re-assessed as:-

  Andersson (Edinburgh)  5 x 1.25 = 6.25, LIndman (Berwick)  4 x 1.25 = 5.00, & Haertel (Ipswich) 5.5 x 1.25 = 5.63

[scottyfan]

No Holders??

[SteveLyric2]

Any truth in the whisper that the 9 point GP assessment is being dropped??

[Aces51]

52 minutes ago, Skidder1 said:

Any truth in the whisper that the 9 point GP assessment is being dropped??

It would be ludicrous to change the assessment now that some teams have signed riders so yes, it probably is true.

[Baldyman]

If it's going to make speedway look stupid...then yes it will probably happen

[dontforgetthefueltapsbruv]

http://dlvr.it/Q8m8QT

So there is now a definitive list of in excess of 260 riders worldwide that have their 2018 averages set in black and white

Lets see it then BSPA.......

Edited January 3, 2018 by dontforgetthefueltapsbruv

[waiheke1]

excellent work arnieg 

In fairness to the bspa it seems making gp riders a 9 actualy makes sense 

whereas allowing woryna on a 4.5 is as ludicrous as many of us have been saying

[waiheke1]

.

Edited January 4, 2018 by waiheke1
error

[SteveLyric2]

So it seems that the rumoured re-assessment of certain assessed riders has indeed been re-assessed. The original 'independent' assessment has been assessed as being wrongly assessed so has been re-assessed for the coming season.

I expect to see an announcement about the re-assessed assessments fairly soon.  In fact I would assess that it will happen sometime before March - although I may well have to re-assess my assessment.