Gresham Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 ....Can someone explain to me how the BSPA decide on the limit each year. Imo...it should be set at 45.00 The points needed to draw a meeting. I totalled up the final issue averages of the top 4 sides from last season. Combined they averaged 45.18 Seems logical to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldRacer Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Averages are based on 4 rides per rider, therefore 28 rides or 14 heats. Therefore status quo would be an aggregate average of 42 points. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCB Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 IT SHOULDN'T BE 45! Sorry but as soon as someone say it should be 45 your opinion is totally invalid as you clearly don't understand averages. Averages are points divided by rides, multiplied by 4. There are 90 points in a meeting, thats 60 rides. Thats 90/60x4=6.00. There are 7 riders, so 6.00x7 is 42. But what if I told you it's actually less than 42 too. The reason? Well the 4 riders picked for heat 15 have averaged more than 6 each before heat 15 so heat 15 actually lowers their averages. In reality it's about 40.9 over a season. So 40.9 in theory means you maintain last years strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racers and royals Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RclqsuLXlo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsunami Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 (edited) IT SHOULDN'T BE 45! Sorry but as soon as someone say it should be 45 your opinion is totally invalid as you clearly don't understand averages. Averages are points divided by rides, multiplied by 4. There are 90 points in a meeting, thats 60 rides. Thats 90/60x4=6.00. There are 7 riders, so 6.00x7 is 42. But what if I told you it's actually less than 42 too. The reason? Well the 4 riders picked for heat 15 have averaged more than 6 each before heat 15 so heat 15 actually lowers their averages. In reality it's about 40.9 over a season. So 40.9 in theory means you maintain last years strength. Every year the same old question isn't it. Is the heat 15 skew not cancelled out by heat 2 riders meeting each other ? Edited November 24, 2017 by Tsunami Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted November 24, 2017 Report Share Posted November 24, 2017 Is the heat 15 skew not cancelled out by heat 2 riders meeting each other ?NOOOOO!!!!!! Because this is part of the 4 rides.Also the number 7 sometimes having only 3 rides can pull overall averages down a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Just to expand on the above, some heats 1-14 will raise the average, some will decrease it, but over the 14 heats, assuming all riders take 4 rides, 42 will be the average team average (assuming at least 3 finishers per race). Where the average gets skewed is when riders have a 5th ride. In the event of extra heats, if the rider average is above 6 the heat will reduce averages and vice versa (so an extra reserve race could mover averages above 42). In terms of substitute rides within the 14 heats, a higher averages rider replacing a lower averages rider will bring down overall averages (and vice versa). As a side note, I assume the OP was taking the p with his suggestion? Surely, surely after the number of fines the topic has been covered no one genuinely thinks like this? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gresham Posted November 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 IT SHOULDN'T BE 45! Sorry but as soon as someone say it should be 45 your opinion is totally invalid as you clearly don't understand averages. Averages are points divided by rides, multiplied by 4. There are 90 points in a meeting, thats 60 rides. Thats 90/60x4=6.00. There are 7 riders, so 6.00x7 is 42. But what if I told you it's actually less than 42 too. The reason? Well the 4 riders picked for heat 15 have averaged more than 6 each before heat 15 so heat 15 actually lowers their averages. In reality it's about 40.9 over a season. So 40.9 in theory means you maintain last years strength. I fully understand how averages are made up. However...I see it from not just a statistical stance. A team put together with a combined average of 40.9, would mean that they would be no where near the realistic strength to draw, let alone win a meeting...45, 46 points being the minimum required. If you were to take the combined average of the top four teams each season, it would give every team a fighting chance to strengthen, and for those that made the top four, a good chance of keeping the riders they already have and some continuity for the fans. The latter being the most important part for me. The way the averages are combined every year, make it hard for teams to keep together...no continuity. All they encourage is teams to be torn apart each season...which imo, is one of the reasons fans struggle to keep interested in going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enotian Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Whoooosssshh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 I fully understand how averages are made up. However...I see it from not just a statistical stance. A team put together with a combined average of 40.9, would mean that they would be no where near the realistic strength to draw, let alone win a meeting...45, 46 points being the minimum required. If you were to take the combined average of the top four teams each season, it would give every team a fighting chance to strengthen, and for those that made the top four, a good chance of keeping the riders they already have and some continuity for the fans. The latter being the most important part for me. The way the averages are combined every year, make it hard for teams to keep together...no continuity. All they encourage is teams to be torn apart each season...which imo, is one of the reasons fans struggle to keep interested in going. It doesnt seem you get it at all? How could a team built to the average strength of the league struggle to draw? They would generally win at home lose away. Or are you assuming they will all have 4 rides and put no one out in heat 15.If y set the limit to 45 - how are all teams going to build to that? Where are the extra riders coming from to add the extra 30-40 points to the league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch958 Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 sorry Gresham you are not understanding - however if we used the Swedish (I think) system of race averages there would be no confusion. or it could even be expressed as a percentage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IainB Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 SCB... it should be 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 sorry Gresham you are not understanding - however if we used the Swedish (I think) system of race averages there would be no confusion. or it could even be expressed as a percentage Its staggerring that anyone can find the concept complex, theyve been calculated the same way since the BL was formed (probably earlier). SCB... it should be 45 Assuming this is a piss-take? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch958 Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Its staggerring that anyone can find the concept complex, theyve been calculated the same way since the BL was formed (probably earlier). Assuming this is a piss-take? to be fair it hasn't moved with the times - it was designed for the 13 heat days - I find it easy to understand but its another thing a newcomer might find odd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 to be fair it hasn't moved with the times - it was designed for the 13 heat days - I find it easy to understand but its another thing a newcomer might find odd In those days reserves had 3 rides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 SCB... it should be 45 I can accept that from an ideological standpoint but not a mathmatically one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCB Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 If there were 4 heats, 15 heats, 30 heats or 600 heats then the points limit would still be about 42ish. What the BSPA should do is go back to 13 heats, then have a 42 point limit and people will think we have a high limit as you only need 39 to draw! Its a winner I tell you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humphrey Appleby Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 Just to expand on the above, some heats 1-14 will raise the average, some will decrease it, but over the 14 heats, assuming all riders take 4 rides, 42 will be the average team average (assuming at least 3 finishers per race). In reality, combined team averages will tend to drop slightly below 42 for various reasons. Some races will only finish with 2 riders (or even one) and points will not be awarded for those, and starting exclusions still count as a ride but a reserve replacement might be made. And of course guests skew things as the rides of the guest don't count towards either their average or the average of the absent rider, and as I remember, any rides of a No. 8 also don't count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enotian Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 In reality, combined team averages will tend to drop slightly below 42 for various reasons. Some races will only finish with 2 riders (or even one) and points will not be awarded for those, and starting exclusions still count as a ride but a reserve replacement might be made. And of course guests skew things as the rides of the guest don't count towards either their average or the average of the absent rider, and as I remember, any rides of a No. 8 also don't count. All of which makes you think that using averages to two decimal places for team building is ludicrous. But that's another story. Mind even if the averages were rounded to zero decimal places the limit should still be 42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCB Posted November 25, 2017 Report Share Posted November 25, 2017 All of which makes you think that using averages to two decimal places for team building is ludicrous. But that's another story. Mind even if the averages were rounded to zero decimal places the limit should still be 42 Why round to 0 decimal places? Why not round to the nearest 1? Or the nearest 10? Or why not the 16 decimal places? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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