Sidney the robin Posted October 12, 2016 Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 (edited) I don't. Perhaps for the Premier League but certainly not the Elite. Why not say as a example S.Worrall, R.Worrall and young Bewley at reserve?. Edited October 12, 2016 by Sidney the robin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g13webb Posted October 12, 2016 Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 I think the issue is that you're so used to seeing draft riders scoring 7 or 8 that it seems odd to see them with averages of 4 but in reality, they only beat each other for 5 or 6 of them points. I can post the averages of riders who raced as reserve and either second string or heat leader and you'll see the differences. The oddity was Lewis Rose who actually did better as a second string but it's possible (because I haven't looked) he had a home bias towards his meetings riding as second string. I was referring to some of the top EDR's: Ellis; Howarth; Newman; Worrall were regularly seen beating 2nd strings and better and most weeks were very prominent in the points lists. No doubt most clubs would see all of these riders as valuable commodities .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted October 12, 2016 Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 But before we all start patting SCB on the back for working out the formula of the circumference of the square root (multiplied by pi) divided by the radius of Einsteins theory of moon size equalling a speedway average, we still have the problem of riders who keep 'popping' into the Elite League now and again or new riders entering the league. Antonio Lindback is a good example as he had a low average at Belle Vue but became a GP rider but scored 5 at Poole so looking back on it, his average was maybe about right with the exception of the anti Poole fan base with Gavan and his merry men. Already answered in previous posts: Any rider not racing uk in 2016 to be given an assessed average at the start of the season based on averages on other major leagues. All riders outside the EL to be given a published assessed average at the start of the season. Someting like 60% for PL, 110% for Ekstraliga/Elitseriesn,75% for enmark plus 2nd tier. That would be the order od=f priority I would give for working out the appropriate average. With the exception of a few top riders from the SGP there is little to choose between the two leagues. It is for this reason I query whether the 60% conversion as a realistic figure anymore. This figure has been used for a few years now when the differences was more noticeable than it is now. Probably a figure around 75% would be more realistic.. when i did comparisons in august, 60% still seemed appropriate. Bearing in mind that the EL averages are being converted downwards for riders racing at 2nd string and reserve. 75% could be about right if you weren't doing the SCB conversions on the EL averages. Bjerre you would have to go back to last season when I did the same and he come out at 6.43 I think the issue is that you're so used to seeing draft riders scoring 7 or 8 that it seems odd to see them with averages of 4 but in reality, they only beat each other for 5 or 6 of them points. I can post the averages of riders who raced as reserve and either second string or heat leader and you'll see the differences. The oddity was Lewis Rose who actually did better as a second string but it's possible (because I haven't looked) he had a home bias towards his meetings riding as second string. Bjerre missed all of 2016 in the EL, so I would say he should be re-assessed based on performances in Poland/Sweden. agree re: reserves. Look at what the likes of Eliis scored as HL, normally 2/3. What I would add is that with these converted averages you end with an average team strength of around 38, wheras in reality you should end with team averages at 42. So you can argue that all riders averages are understated by around 0.5 each, though my feeling is that it is that the HL averages are actually understated by a higher value, number 7s (who often rode only 3 heats, 2 protected) may be about right. Any rider not racing uk in 2016 to be given an assessed average at the start of the season based on averages on other major leagues. All riders outside the EL to be given a published assessed average at the start of the season. I was referring to some of the top EDR's: Ellis; Howarth; Newman; Worrall were regularly seen beating 2nd strings and better and most weeks were very prominent in the points lists. No doubt most clubs would see all of these riders as valuable commodities .. Worral and Ellis end with similar converted averages to Kurtz and Karlsson. Which seems about right? Howarth i thought had a disapointing season, so his average seems about right to me, in fact I though he would be more than a point behind those other two. Look at it this way - the 2nd strings essentially had a "balanced frmat" whee they raced HL, 2nd strings and reserves. Would you expect Howarth to average more than 4 racing as a 2nd string in that format. Personally, I wouldnt. Fair play to SCB a brilliant piece of work does everybody agree about having 3 Brits in a team.? I do. there were more than 24 Brits of a suitable standard who rode EL in 2016. And you could add to that the likes of Stead, Barker, Bewley. Don't see how it helps British speedway if the likes of Bates have to go back to riding PL and Nl instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidney the robin Posted October 13, 2016 Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 What average would the Laguta brothers be assessed at and Pepe P (would he have an old average)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A ORLOV Posted October 13, 2016 Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 What average would the Laguta brothers be assessed at and Pepe P (would he have an old average)? It would depend if they were going to ride for Poole or not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillipsr Posted October 13, 2016 Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 Why not say as a example S.Worrall, R.Worrall and young Bewley at reserve?. Not enough good ones to go round some teams would end up with riders way way out of there depth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidney the robin Posted October 13, 2016 Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 Not enough good ones to go round some teams would end up with riders way way out of there depthOut of the three league's i counted 30 plus Brits including a few old uns Robson,Lanham,Wilkinson with a few promising young uns Bewley, Parkinson Hume,Morris, Clegg,Williamson.You are right maybe three is stretching it but definately two i just hope the mediocre foreign rider who are not cheap are part of history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted October 14, 2016 Report Share Posted October 14, 2016 I reckon 3 is ok Sid. There would be 30 brits rode El this year, plus a barker, stead and some promising youngsters. SCB: suggestion would be that 10% should be added to all those averages. That would allow a team building limit of 42.5 or 43 which could then be retained for the season. That would also impact conversions for other leagues - pl to 65%, elitseren 115%, ekstraliga 120% and other leagues varying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidney the robin Posted October 14, 2016 Report Share Posted October 14, 2016 I reckon 3 is ok Sid. There would be 30 brits rode El this year, plus a barker, stead and some promising youngsters. SCB: suggestion would be that 10% should be added to all those averages. That would allow a team building limit of 42.5 or 43 which could then be retained for the season. That would also impact conversions for other leagues - pl to 65%, elitseren 115%, ekstraliga 120% and other leagues varying. The thing is eaces1" i think it was Shale searcher? he made a great point about Brits going stale and reaching a level.My take is those Brits named are all good anough so if there is not going to be one big league there should always be a job for them.Out of the youngsters my feeling is that Bewley, Parkinson,Smith,Hume are the long-term prospects who could progress to EL level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronScorpion Posted October 14, 2016 Report Share Posted October 14, 2016 Most posters on here have said that the present race system is unfair as regards to inflated averages. 2nd strings are the only riders who ride to the old race system(against all riders) so have a true averages. Heat leaders ride against each other 3 times so most have lower than normal averages(increase by 12.5% for true average). The reserves, wether they were at 6 or 7 rode against each other 3 times with the no7 riding against an opposition no4 once(heat leader dropping down often raced at no4 as opposed to no2 ie Holder, Andersen, Woffinden, etc) so the reserve had the harder ride against 2nd string. Therefore, average decreased by 20%. SCB does an awesome job in his calculations & is a guy that I respect his views. Racers & Royals has ideas about the foreign leagues so I would put their ideas together to guage teams for 2017 & avoid average manipulation(also use graded riders). It seems to work abroad and is not tinkered with every year. 2017 is a year for change but try & keep it simple & reasonable & give it time to be adapted to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCB Posted October 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2016 SCB: suggestion would be that 10% should be added to all those averages. That would allow a team building limit of 42.5 or 43 which could then be retained for the season. That would also impact conversions for other leagues - pl to 65%, elitseren 115%, ekstraliga 120% and other leagues varying. I wouldn't argue with that. I'll be honest my "weighted averages" are more a relative value of a riders worth rather than an exact value of their worth. For a start I actually took heat leaders as the starting point and made everyone relative to them. Really what I should have done is took second strings as the start point and worked out heat leaders weighted averages. But yes, looking at it, adding 10% does make things more evenly spread and work better with a 42 break even figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 (edited) Ok. So weighted averages, designed to build to a points limit of 42.5 or 43 points. EL averages (includes only riders who raced >10 EL fixtures in 2016). Assumes a 4 point minimum average for foreign riders. I would say a 2 point assessed figure should apply to any U23 British riders who did not ride EL (>10 meetings) in 2016. Jason Doyle 10.76 Niels K Iversen 10.02 Andreas Jonsson 9.48 Chris Holder 9.28 Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.80 Matej Zagar 8.27 Fredrik Lindgren 8.17 Kim Nilsson 7.84 Hans Andersen 7.81 Craig Cook 7.63 Danny King 7.49 Chris Harris 7.47 Robert Lambert 7.46 Edward Kennett 7.36 Sam Masters 7.35 Joonas Kylmakorpi 7.21 Jacob Thorssell 7.15 Max Fricke 6.81 Patrick Hougaard 6.79 Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.77 Scott Nicholls 6.75 Richard Lawson 6.50 Nick Morris 6.39 Josh Grajczonek 6.37 Piotr Swiderski 6.27 Szymon Wozniak 6.04 Nicolai Klindt 5.87 Bjarne Pedersen 5.85 Mads Korneliussen 5.78 Troy Batchelor 5.68 Lewis Bridger 5.62 Brady Kurtz 5.61 Steve Worrall 5.61 Jason Garrity 5.60 Rohan Tungate 5.56 Peter Karlsson 5.47 Adam Ellis 5.46 Mikkel B Jensen 5.17 Justin Sedgmen 5.09 Richie Worrall 4.88 Kyle Newman 4.59 Aaron Summers 4.44 Paul Starke 4.32 Josh Auty 4.25 Kyle Howarth 4.22 Charles Wright 4.14 Lewis Rose 4.14 Josh Bates 4.06 Davey Watt 4.00 Kacper Woryna 4.00 Rory Schlein 4.00 Kai Huckenbeck 4.00 Lewis Kerr 3.76 Joe Jacobs 3.33 Max Clegg 3.31 James Sarjeant 2.94 Robert Mear 2.81 Stefan Nielsen 2.73 Carl Wilkinson 2.65 And riders who did not ride >10 meetings in the EL in 2016, and thus have a converted averaged based on scores in Poland and Sweden (top two tiers), Danish top flight and British Premier League. The only notable rider I can think of missing is Smolinski, where an assessed average would be needed, I’d say a 7 would be about right. Have listed all riders with a converted average >5. Bartosz Zmarzlik 11.00 Tai Woffinden 10.43 Greg Hancock 9.99 Janusz Kolodziej 9.98 Grigoriy Laguta 9.69 Patryk Dudek 9.67 Emil Sajfutdinov 9.17 Martin Vaculik 9.16 Vaclav Milik 9.12 Antonio Lindbäck 9.03 Nicki Pedersen 9.00 Artem Laguta 8.79 Przemyslaw Pawlicki 8.73 Piotr Protasiewicz 8.63 Tomasz Gollob 8.34 Piotr Pawlicki 8.32 Grzegorz Zengota 8.24 Leon Madsen 8.03 Pawel Przedpelski 8.00 Maciej Janowski 7.93 Kenneth Bjerre 7.85 Peter Ljung 7.75 Peter Kildemand 7.68 Rafal Okoniewski 7.66 Rune Holta 7.58 Timo Lahti 7.33 Tomasz Jedrzejak 7.31 Pawel Miesiac 7.26 Andzejs Lebedevs 7.22 Michal Szczepaniak 7.16 Adrian Miedzinski 7.12 Krystian Pieszczek 7.11 Robert Miskowiak 7.11 Jakub Jamrog 7.05 Oskar Fajfer 6.87 Linus Sundström 6.76 Maksim Bogdanov 6.74 Magnus Zetterström 6.63 Norbert Kosciuch 6.59 Michael Jepsen Jensen 6.59 Dawid Lampart 6.55 Tobiasz Musielak 6.55 Andriy Karpov 6.53 Mikael Max 6.51 Kasts Puodzuks 6.46 Kacper Gomolski 6.44 Andrej Kudriashov 6.42 Karol Baran 6.38 Tomasz Gapinski 6.19 Renat Gafurov 6.17 Simon Stead 6.13 Jonas Davidsson 6.11 Piotr Swist 6.11 Daniel Jeleniewski 6.08 Sergej Logatjev 6.07 Marcin Nowak 6.03 Pontus Aspgren 6.01 Mikkel Michelsen 5.97 Sebastian Ulamek 5.93 Adrian Gomolski 5.92 Vadim Tarasenko 5.92 Grzegorz Walasek 5.91 Rene Bach 5.90 Ludvig Lindgren 5.84 Krzysztof Jablonski 5.80 Anders Thomsen 5.79 Hubert Legowik 5.72 Nicklas Porsing 5.65 Miroslaw Jablonski 5.62 Kevin Wölbert 5.55 Viktor Kulakov 5.52 Mikkel Bech Jensen 5.51 Kenneth Hansen 5.50 Marcin Rempala 5.48 Damian Balinski 5.46 Maciej Kuciapa 5.46 Ryan Fisher 5.44 Rasmus Jensen 5.44 Ernest Koza 5.42 Tomasz Chrzanowski 5.40 Kamil Brzozowski 5.40 Zbigniew Suchecki 5.40 Rafał Karczmarz 5.38 Oskar Ajtner-Gollob 5.38 Mathias Thörnblom 5.37 Ricky Wells 5.35 Oskar Bober 5.34 Artur Czaja 5.32 Edward Mazur 5.31 Mateusz Szczepaniak 5.27 Ulrich Östergaard 5.27 Kevin Doolan 5.26 Fredrik Engman 5.25 David Bellego 5.25 Linus Eklöf 5.23 Nicolas Covatti 5.21 Dominik Kossakowski 5.16 Oskar Polis 5.16 Oliver Berntzon 5.15 Frederik Jakobsen 5.14 Joel Andersson 5.13 Thomas Jonasson 5.12 Jack Holder 5.10 Marcin Jedrzejewski 5.09 Benjamin Barker 5.08 Adrian Cyfer 5.05 Matej Kus 5.01 Edited October 18, 2016 by waihekeaces1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 (edited) and to illustrate the sort of team strength that could line up with a 42.5 limit using the above, trying to be realistic about who may rider here (have assumed Danes riding top flight in Poland/Sweden/Denmark will not ride UK). Assumes minimum 3 Brits per team, one who must be u23: Belle Vue Woffinder 10.43 Zagar 8.27 Cook 7.63 S Worrall 5.61 R worrall 4.88 J Jacobs 3.33 D Bewley 2.00 42.15 Poole Chris Holder 9.28 Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.80 Chris Harris 7.47 Thomas Jonasson 5.12 Jack Holder 5.10 Kyle Newman 4.59 Ashley Morris 2.00 42.36 Wolves: Fredrik Lindgren 8.17 Jacob Thorssell 7.15 Sam Masters 7.35 Scott Nicholls 6.75 Mikkel B Jensen 5.17 Kyle Howarth 4.22 Max Clegg 3.31 42.13 swindon: Jason Doyle 10.76 Hans Andersen 7.81 Nick Morris 6.39 Josh Grajczonek 6.37 Josh Auty 4.25 Charles Wright 4.14 Stefan Nielsen 2.73 42.44 Coventry: Joonas Kylmakorpi 7.21 Danny King 7.49 Max Fricke 6.81 Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.77 Jason Garrity 5.60 Josh Bates 4.06 Rory Schlein 4.00 41.93 KL: Maciej Janowski 7.93 Robert Lambert 7.46 Simon Stead 6.13 Troy Batchelor 5.68 Nicklas Porsing 5.65 Justin Sedgmen 5.09 Lewis Rose 4.14 42.07 Lakeside: Andreas Jonsson 9.48 Kim Nilsson 7.84 Edward Kennett 7.36 Richard Lawson 6.50 Adam Ellis 5.46 Lewis Kerr 3.76 Ben Morley 2.00 42.40 "8th team" Vaclav Milik 9.12 Grzegorz Zengota 8.24 Patrick Hougaard 6.79 Brady Kurtz 5.61 Lewis Bridger 5.62 Paul Starke 4.32 Liam Carr 2.00 41.70 Edited October 18, 2016 by waihekeaces1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Beevers Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Bjerre you would have to go back to last season when I did the same and he come out at 6.43 Interesting post immediately above this post in regards to non EL riders averages but most of those averages seem quite high don't they? Gregory Laguta 9.67 and also Antonio Lindback found one meeting tough here and he is handed a 9.03? Another point is coming back to the quote I have highlighted from SCB in regards to Kenneth Bjerre and his average. His last average should be 6.43 but if he came in on that weighted 'international' figure he would be 7.75. Interesting reading though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 (edited) Not sure they are that high tbh. Essentially a HL will have their actual EL average increased by 10%, which reflects that they have been riding in a heat format which pits them predominantly against other HL, and also allows for team building to a figure of 42.5 (as all teams will come in close to 42 over a season). Greg Laguta has consistently been one of the best performed riders in Poland/Sweden, so i think it is fair that he is on a par with AJ. With Lindback, I don't think you can read must into one performance. A better barometer is surely a whole season ridden in Poland/Sweden. SCB assumed Bjerre would come in on his 2015 average. My view is that 2016 performances is a better indicator of form. similarly riders like Woffy and Milik come in on much higher averages than if you took their existing EL averages. I believe that SCBs figure is also before the 10% he agreed would make sense to add to allow building a a 42ish limit. Edit: actually i think SCB used a different methodology for the 2015 figures, and already assumed some upwards weighting. My view is that use of those converted averages above should be allied with a reversion to a conventional heat format, re-declarations also bound by the 42.5 limit, all riders can move up from reserve, greensheets revert to being released monthly, first set released after two months and riders must have ridden minimum 3 home and 3 away meetings to get a new average. In case of guests being used, the 3 brits (one u23) team make up must be maintained. Edited October 18, 2016 by waihekeaces1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 and to illustrate the sort of team strength that could line up with a 42.5 limit using the above, trying to be realistic about who may rider here (have assumed Danes riding top flight in Poland/Sweden/Denmark will not ride UK). Assumes minimum 3 Brits per team, one who must be u23: Belle Vue Woffinder 10.43 Zagar 8.27 Cook 7.63 S Worrall 5.61 R worrall 4.88 J Jacobs 3.33 D Bewley 2.00 42.15 Poole Chris Holder 9.28 Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.80 Chris Harris 7.47 Thomas Jonasson 5.12 Jack Holder 5.10 Kyle Newman 4.59 Ashley Morris 2.00 42.36 Wolves: Fredrik Lindgren 8.17 Jacob Thorssell 7.15 Sam Masters 7.35 Scott Nicholls 6.75 Mikkel B Jensen 5.17 Kyle Howarth 4.22 Max Clegg 3.31 42.13 swindon: Jason Doyle 10.76 Hans Andersen 7.81 Nick Morris 6.39 Josh Grajczonek 6.37 Josh Auty 4.25 Charles Wright 4.14 Stefan Nielsen 2.73 42.44 Coventry: Joonas Kylmakorpi 7.21 Danny King 7.49 Max Fricke 6.81 Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.77 Jason Garrity 5.60 Josh Bates 4.06 Rory Schlein 4.00 41.93 KL: Maciej Janowski 7.93 Robert Lambert 7.46 Simon Stead 6.13 Troy Batchelor 5.68 Nicklas Porsing 5.65 Justin Sedgmen 5.09 Lewis Rose 4.14 42.07 Lakeside: Andreas Jonsson 9.48 Kim Nilsson 7.84 Edward Kennett 7.36 Richard Lawson 6.50 Adam Ellis 5.46 Lewis Kerr 3.76 Ben Morley 2.00 42.40 "8th team" Vaclav Milik 9.12 Grzegorz Zengota 8.24 Patrick Hougaard 6.79 Brady Kurtz 5.61 Lewis Bridger 5.62 Paul Starke 4.32 Liam Carr 2.00 41.70 Blue Sky thinking. Milik maybe but on 9.12 a point higher than Lindgren? Janowski I doubt it if he retains his GP spot. Stead, the Sheffield fans are hoping he retires due to injuries, when he has been their main man for a while, I very much doubt THJ would deem these shores worthy of his efforts again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 just examples of teams that could be built. Milik was one of the top performers in the Polish league, but I agree he is unatttractive on that average. But. I think using genuinely earnedaverages is much better than subjective "assessed" averages. Janowski I agree, but who else can KL get as number one - cant see Puk back with the Polish restriction on leagues in place. Who else is out there? Teams are going to struggle to nail down genuine number ones. You could equally say Woffy is unlikely to return to the UK. Stead still performed pretty well in the PL, adn rides KL well, but could certainly be swapped with any number of riders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 There should be some incentive for young Brits to give the Elite a try, Ellis is a prime example. The fact that it appears an NL club will pay him enough to ignore the PL means that NL club needs to be a PL club! I would scrap the EL Draft system. Every team must field 3 Brits, at least 1 of those must be under 20. However every Brit aged under 30 averaging under 6.5 comes in on half their PL average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 prett similar to what i proposed, though i set the limit at u21 as i don't think there are sufficient decent riders u20. I'd say PL should be required to have an u21 and an u23 reserve. the incentive to bring in a young brit would be them coming in on a 2 if they had not ridden EL previously. Brits u30 coming in at half their PL average though??? i can see plenty of riders making sure they stay just under 6.5 to ensure they got a team place based on that. Looking at the draft teams above, I can't see many EL standard Brits missing our on places. Maybe Barker and Sarjeant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col Posted October 19, 2016 Report Share Posted October 19, 2016 Brits u30 coming in at half their PL average though??? Thinking Kennett & King must be 30 by the start of the next season. But a pretty ridiculous statement I admit. Was thinking of Rose & Kerr but then remembered that Garrity, Newman & the Worralls fit into that maybe even Lawson & Wright. It needs to be looked at on an individual basis. With all the talented British riders coming from Motorcross when in their early 20's we need to give them a chance to come to grips with British Speedway League racing. Certainly James Serjeant should not have an EL reserve spot unless he stops jumping the gate every ride! Howarth should not spend time at reserve, any more either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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