Averages And Their "worth"

[waiheke1]

What would be a suitable pl conversion to use for riders like j holder? 60%?

NL brits come in on a 2?

[waiheke1]

OK, so taking the top 56 averaged riders, including top 24 Brits (assume minimum 3 Brits per team), it looks like 40 points would actually be a suitable limit.

But probably should be set a little lower, as you can assume Tai probably won't ride here, and if there is a 3 brit minimum then chances are that some lower averaged Brits will also get places.

I'd also say that an overseas rider should not be able to come in on lower than a 4, so the likes of Huckenbeck should be a 4.

Looking then at the averages of teams as they finished the season, and assuming Tai not riding and minor tweaking like J Holder in for Bjarne at Poole , the average team strength is around 37.5.

Assuming we want to encourage slight strengthening of the league , then my original estimate fo 38.5 seems about right.

 

For a team like the Aces, that would probably mean letting Nicholls go an bringing in an early-mid 5 pointer (or let Fricke and Nicholls go, and bring in Woffy and a 3 pointer for example).

Poole could let Holder, Andersen, Buzz and Pedersen go, and replace with say Magic (assuming 2016 Polish/swedish average +10%), KK,,J Holder and Starke.

Wolves could keep 5 of their team, with 11 points to replace Woffy and PK (so Tai plus a NL rider, or Joonas plus a 4,5 pointer, os some other combo).

Those strengths look about right, the top teams needing to weaken slightly, the teams which missed the play offs being able to strengthen slightly (or a lot in case of Leicester)..

 

Of course, there will still be some bargains, but at least they will be "legitimate" bargains like woffy was this year. Average from 2016 Swedish/Polish top flight plus 10% I think would work for most overseas riders (for protected reserves in Poland, perhaps remove the +10%). Use 60% as conversion for PL. Riders not racing in those divisions could perhaps be say 75% of 2nd tier Swedish/Polish/Danish league average. Riders not racing in those divisions to be a 4 unless otherwise agreed (e.g Smoli should be assessed at start of season as a 6 perhaps, cannot think of any other notable riders that would need to be assessed in such a way).

[Joe Beevers]

I think SCB has worked out a very sensible and fair average system.

 

So sensible in fact, I doubt it will be used.

 

So 38.50 could get you:

 

1) Matej Zagar

2) Kyle Newman

3) Craig Cook

4) Szymion Wozniak

5) Freddie Lindgren

6) Rory Schlein

7) Kai Huckenbeck

 

Cannot see a fairer way personally.

[Col]

Jason Doyle 9.78

Niels K Iversen 9.11

Andreas Jonsson 8.62

Chris Holder 8.44

Tai Woffinden 8.41

Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.00

Matej Zagar 7.52

Fredrik Lindgren 7.43

Kim Nilsson 7.13

Hans Andersen 7.10

Craig Cook 6.94

Danny King 6.81

Chris Harris 6.79

Robert Lambert 6.78

Edward Kennett 6.69

Sam Masters 6.68

Joonas Kylmakorpi 6.55

Jacob Thorssell 6.50

Max Fricke 6.19

Patrick Hougaard 6.17

Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.15

Scott Nicholls 6.14

Richard Lawson 5.91

Nick Morris 5.81

Josh Grajczonek 5.79

Piotr Swiderski 5.70

Szymon Wozniak 5.49

Nicolai Klindt 5.34

Bjarne Pedersen 5.32

Mads Korneliussen 5.25

Troy Batchelor 5.16

Lewis Bridger 5.11

Brady Kurtz 5.10

Steve Worrall 5.10

Jason Garrity 5.09

Rohan Tungate 5.05

Peter Karlsson 4.97

Adam Ellis 4.96

Mikkel B Jensen 4.70

Justin Sedgmen 4.63

Richie Worrall 4.44

Simon Lambert 4.33

Kyle Newman 4.17

Aaron Summers 4.04

Sebastian Ulamek 4.00

Paul Starke 3.93

Josh Auty 3.86

Kyle Howarth 3.84

Charles Wright 3.76

Lewis Rose 3.76

Josh Bates 3.69

Davey Watt 3.62

Kacper Woryna 3.62

Rory Schlein 3.47

Nikolaj Busk-Jakobsen 3.43

Lewis Kerr 3.42

Adam Roynon 3.40

Kai Huckenbeck 3.23

Joe Jacobs 3.03

Max Clegg 3.01

James Sarjeant 2.67

Robert Mear 2.55

Stefan Nielsen 2.48

Carl Wilkinson 2.41

Grzegorz Walasek 2.13

Ashley Morris 1.93

 

Looks good, get the BSPA to agree

[waiheke1]

I think SCB has worked out a very sensible and fair average system.

 

So sensible in fact, I doubt it will be used.

 

So 38.50 could get you:

 

1) Matej Zagar

2) Kyle Newman

3) Craig Cook

4) Szymion Wozniak

5) Freddie Lindgren

6) Rory Schlein

7) Kai Huckenbeck

 

Cannot see a fairer way personally.

I would suggest Schlein would be given a higher average, as he rode less than 10 meetings. Think he would need to be given a rolling or assessed average and end closer to 5. As noTed above, I'd also suggest 4 should be the minimum for any foreign rider. And a minimum 3 brits per team (suggest one should gave to be u21 or u23). So that team perhaps put in kerr and clegg as reserves.

But agree there is no fairer way.

[mikebv]

Grade these 66 riders into 'tens' and run with six man teams and you could get nine very evenly matched teams. Using nine out of every ten means one rider misses out per section but they can come in to replace injured or loss of form riders when the season starts. (Or covers the likelihood riders eg Woofy, not riding over here next year)

 

One rider out of each Grade One to Four (ie 36 out of 40 riders available) and Two from Grade Five (18 riders out of 26 available)

 

To increase each 'pool'...

 

Add to Grade One any of next years 15 GP riders not already on the list and Sayfutdinov, G. Laguta etc (for the off chance they may want to come over at some stage a la Woffy and Lindback this year)..

 

Add to Grade Two riders of the ilk of Ljung, MJJ, Milik etc

 

Add to Grade Three any current PL heat leaders not already mentioned

 

Add to Grade four any current PL second strings not mentioned..

 

And add to Grade Five any PL reserves/NL riders not already mentioned eg Bewley..

 

There may be debate about Kim Nilsson being Grade One but that's averages for you when you are a home track specialist..

 

Schlein and Batchelor it could be argued are lower than expected but also given their injuries maybe not?

 

And Grade Five probably should just be Brits only?

 

Nine teams, six riders per team. One from each pool of ten per team in Grades 1 to 4 and two from Grade 5 mean lots of 'subs on the bench' to ensure no guests.

 

With clear transparency as to where everyone sits in a Grading system, either riding here now or not, and maybe it could work?

 

A possible race format is everyone races against each other over the first nine heats. Then three heats of lowest scorers through to the highest and finally one nominated..?

 

Thirteen heats, and maybe charge £15 quid as cheaper to run a six man team with a 'second string' lighter than the case this season..?

 

Could happiness again be 40-38?😉

Edited October 12, 2016 by mikebv

[waiheke1]

Why grade though rather than average? I fail to see a single advantage, but definitely issues.

looking at that proposed methodology, you could end with teams effectively 6.5 points apart!

compare:

Doyle Cook Fricke Batchelor Bech Starke

Kerr

 

with:

Nilsson Kennett Swiderski Bridger S Lambert Bates Mear

 

And that was including Starke rather than Schlein in the first team.

Edited October 12, 2016 by waihekeaces1

[SCB]

There would need to be some further tweeting, Id need to do the same (again) for last year I think so the likes of Schlein could get rolling averages over 20 meetings. But you could equally argue that since the points limit come along there have most seasons been a rider or two every year who end up low and thus a bargain.

 

If I thought it was actually going to be used I'd happily spend some time finessing. Same with my fixture compiling software, happily sit down and get it working properly if it would be used.

[Reliant Robin]

All looks far too sensible and logical to me!!

 

SCB...have you contacted anybody at BSPA about this and/or software for fixtures?

[SteveLyric2]

SCB has undoubtedly done a good job here, (I'd hate to presume what his personal life is like?) but as can already be seen from a few of the other posts, anyone can make a case for an individual rider to have a higher or lower average due to personal racing issues eg. injuries or missing fixtures due to other meetings etc.

 

But its a 'good starter for ten'.

[Sidney the robin]

Fair play to SCB a brilliant piece of work does everybody agree about having 3 Brits in a team.?

[DWP]

Jason Doyle 9.78Niels K Iversen 9.11Andreas Jonsson 8.62Chris Holder 8.44Tai Woffinden 8.41Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.00Matej Zagar 7.52Fredrik Lindgren 7.43Kim Nilsson 7.13Hans Andersen 7.10Craig Cook 6.94Danny King 6.81Chris Harris 6.79Robert Lambert 6.78Edward Kennett 6.69Sam Masters 6.68Joonas Kylmakorpi 6.55Jacob Thorssell 6.50Max Fricke 6.19Patrick Hougaard 6.17Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.15Scott Nicholls 6.14Richard Lawson 5.91Nick Morris 5.81Josh Grajczonek 5.79Piotr Swiderski 5.70Szymon Wozniak 5.49Nicolai Klindt 5.34Bjarne Pedersen 5.32Mads Korneliussen 5.25Troy Batchelor 5.16Lewis Bridger 5.11Brady Kurtz 5.10Steve Worrall 5.10Jason Garrity 5.09Rohan Tungate 5.05Peter Karlsson 4.97Adam Ellis 4.96Mikkel B Jensen 4.70Justin Sedgmen 4.63Richie Worrall 4.44Simon Lambert 4.33Kyle Newman 4.17Aaron Summers 4.04Sebastian Ulamek 4.00Paul Starke 3.93Josh Auty 3.86Kyle Howarth 3.84Charles Wright 3.76Lewis Rose 3.76Josh Bates 3.69Davey Watt 3.62Kacper Woryna 3.62Rory Schlein 3.47Nikolaj Busk-Jakobsen 3.43Lewis Kerr 3.42Adam Roynon 3.40Kai Huckenbeck 3.23Joe Jacobs 3.03Max Clegg 3.01James Sarjeant 2.67Robert Mear 2.55Stefan Nielsen 2.48Carl Wilkinson 2.41Grzegorz Walasek 2.13Ashley Morris 1.93

I've assumed that heat leaders averages are right and then weighted second strings a reserves. I calculated the weightings by taking any riders who rode as any two of heat leader, second string and reserve to calculate the ratios. I've kept it simple and weighted it by riding position 1/3/5 vs 2/4 vs 6/7 when in reality riders appear to have averaged a little less at 5 than at 1 and 3 and at 4 compared to 2 and at 7 compared to 6 but I think it's insignificant enough to not matter.

 

I've also used all meeting for this season. I don't care if a rider has done 1 meeting of 30, thats what is counted. It explains why in some ways Rory Schlein is far too low really.

 

 

Stevebrum will also see that weighted, KK is over half a point better thna Freddie, fancy that (we'll gloss over Freddie leading his team to play-off glory in sterling fashion for now)

Out of interest what's Porsing's average as did 2 Lynn meetings in 2016 - Polish average 7.32 last EL average 4.7? PL 6.58

[SCB]

Out of interest what's Porsing's average as did 2 Lynn meetings in 2016 - Polish average 7.32 last EL average 4.7? PL 6.58

Sorry, missed him! Forgot to add Lynns team changes in August. Weighted hes 6.31 rather than 8.57 traditional.

[ruckerroo]

Well done scb, good stuff and on the money.

 

Sadly they will come up with another hair brained scheme no doubt

[mikebv]

Why grade though rather than average? I fail to see a single advantage, but definitely issues.

looking at that proposed methodology, you could end with teams effectively 6.5 points apart!

compare: Doyle Cook Fricke Batchelor Bech Starke

Kerr

 

with: Nilsson Kennett Swiderski Bridger S Lambert Bates Mear

 

And that was including Starke rather than Schlein in the first team.

The second team would smash the former at Lakeside...😀

 

Hence averages can be misleading...

 

However maybe the best of both worlds would be to use the mean averages per sector of ten for the first forty riders and then the mean average for the rest? Set a limit for five grades and six man teams and all work to that limit but only one rider from each sector in 1-4 allowed..

 

Grading will at least mean something to the public. "He's Grade One, he's Grade Two etc" And fans would have more clarity on the level of rider within that band when any incoming riders join the league later in the season.

 

No way would Woffy or Lindback have been Grade Two level so would have had to replace Lindgren or Holder this season which would have stopped lots of conspiracy theories and the sport being poorly viewed as a 'bit Mickey Mouse'..

[foreverblue]

Sorry, missed him! Forgot to add Lynns team changes in August. Weighted hes 6.31 rather than 8.57 traditional.

Can't see them using your formula though, it seems far too fair and logical to me! Whatever scheme they use i just hope for fairness.

[Blazeaway]

Fair play to SCB a brilliant piece of work does everybody agree about having 3 Brits in a team.?

 

 

I don't.

 

Perhaps for the Premier League but certainly not the Elite.

[Joe Beevers]

But before we all start patting SCB on the back for working out the formula of the circumference of the square root (multiplied by pi) divided by the radius of Einsteins theory of moon size equalling a speedway average, we still have the problem of riders who keep 'popping' into the Elite League now and again or new riders entering the league.

 

Antonio Lindback is a good example as he had a low average at Belle Vue but became a GP rider but scored 5 at Poole so looking back on it, his average was maybe about right with the exception of the anti Poole fan base with Gavan and his merry men.

 

Also, what average would Kenneth Bjerre come in on with these applied rules by SCB.

[g13webb]

What would be a suitable pl conversion to use for riders like j holder? 60%?

NL brits come in on a 2?

 

First of all, a big well done to SCB, he has done a brilliant job in the working of these scores. My gut feeling is that some of the present EDR's are worth far more than the score they have been given, when compared with some of the riders with higher scores. But that just something I picked up on and is no way a complaint of the time SCB has afforded in the creation of.. We need people to input these ideas to enable the sport to move forward...

 

With the exception of a few top riders from the SGP there is little to choose between the two leagues. It is for this reason I query whether the 60% conversion as a realistic figure anymore. This figure has been used for a few years now when the differences was more noticeable than it is now. Probably a figure around 75% would be more realistic..

[SCB]

But before we all start patting SCB on the back for working out the formula of the circumference of the square root (multiplied by pi) divided by the radius of Einsteins theory of moon size equalling a speedway average, we still have the problem of riders who keep 'popping' into the Elite League now and again or new riders entering the league.

 

Antonio Lindback is a good example as he had a low average at Belle Vue but became a GP rider but scored 5 at Poole so looking back on it, his average was maybe about right with the exception of the anti Poole fan base with Gavan and his merry men.

 

Also, what average would Kenneth Bjerre come in on with these applied rules by SCB.

Lindback wouldn't count in my figures as he rode 0 EL meetings so I have nothing to base his average on. If you give me the time (and I had the inclination but frankly I don't) I'd take every riders Polish, Swedish, British, German and Danish league averages and work out conversions between each of the leagues.

 

Bjerre you would have to go back to last season when I did the same and he come out at 6.43

 

First of all, a big well done to SCB, he has done a brilliant job in the working of these scores. My gut feeling is that some of the present EDR's are worth far more than the score they have been given, when compared with some of the riders with higher scores. But that just something I picked up on and is no way a complaint of the time SCB has afforded in the creation of.. We need people to input these ideas to enable the sport to move forward...

I think the issue is that you're so used to seeing draft riders scoring 7 or 8 that it seems odd to see them with averages of 4 but in reality, they only beat each other for 5 or 6 of them points. I can post the averages of riders who raced as reserve and either second string or heat leader and you'll see the differences. The oddity was Lewis Rose who actually did better as a second string but it's possible (because I haven't looked) he had a home bias towards his meetings riding as second string.