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Wolves 2017


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I have no doubt Wolves will make the playoffs, basically because of the failings & limitations of other teams. But Wolves will get massacred in the semi. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. Is reaching the semi deemed successful? Depends on your ambition. Finishing 3rd I would agree is a successful season for a Rugby or Football club. But there are 8 top tier teams, two are new to the top tier, and an established team has had to be rebuilt from scratch. Another are in the process of building a new stadium. Wolves should have higher ambitions than finishing 3rd and getting wiped out on either the East or South Coast in the Semi.

You need to make your mind up as you seem to have changed your original prediction from having wolves 3rd to 5th since the defeat on Wednesday. Weekly changes is it?

Making the top 4 is the minimum any team needs to say that there season has been a success.only one team can win the league every year and it isn't often the same one due to the nature of changing the rules most seasons. Poole the only recent exception to that.

The team is built top 3 heavy with Adam who will only improve as he gets race fit.

Big pressure on Clegg to step up as senior reserve but we all saw how he progressed last year. He may just find that extra bit that he needs, if he does we will get stronger.

I can see someone like Hume coming in for Greaves. That also will be a strengthener.

If we are good enough to be in the top 4 we are good enough to win it.

Thankfully titles are won in September not 1st April so I disagree that "anyone's knows" we will be massacred in the semi's.

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I have no doubt Wolves will make the playoffs, basically because of the failings & limitations of other teams.

 

Wolves should have higher ambitions than finishing 3rd and getting wiped out on either the East or South Coast in the Semi.

But Belle Vue, Rye House and Poole aren't on the East coast

 

 

 

Reserves were the weak point again last night but the only remedy of this is one of three options. Hope they get better and leave as they are or replace like for like and hope to find a promising reserve like Bewley or Shanes but most of these are already signed up.

 

The third option is to make two changes to get a more capable reserve to get points but this would mean having to axe one of the top five which is where all the pressure is on with 40 of the 41 points coming from those last night,.

 

 

 

See how it goes for a bit and then look again but Leicester at Monmore on Monday and Josh Bates is flying so going to be hard stopping him.

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greaves is not the only problem at reserve clegg has been poor so it could be two changes with maybe ash morris if his average fits ?

need to drop one of the top 5 to fit him in....
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I don't think the lack of points at reserve are any great surprise. I think that was generally predicted before the season started. Can either or both improve? Time will tell but it does look like the Achilles heel of our team.

 

Not the only problem though because only Lindgren consistently looks like a heat leader away from home. So improvement is needed there also.

 

I do think Wolves will be a difficult team to beat at Monmore and that in itself might be enough to scrape into the play offs, but hard to see us getting enough points away from home to go close to retaining the title.

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Not entirely sure why we're particularly concerned about Skornicki at this stage, Seemed to improve as the meeting went on at Poole and let's not forget.. he was put in a heat leader spot, under the old format and we know how tough that is. Thorsell, the actual heat leader was given the much easier second string spot and didn't deliver.

Adam appeared to have bike problems at the start of the meeting.

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Not entirely sure why we're particularly concerned about Skornicki at this stage, Seemed to improve as the meeting went on at Poole and let's not forget.. he was put in a heat leader spot, under the old format and we know how tough that is. Thorsell, the actual heat leader was given the much easier second string spot and didn't deliver.

Adam was excellent on Saturday, but was very poor tonight - not that he was alone.

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Wolves cannot be contenders to retain their title with only 5 riders. We know Clegg can ride better as we saw last season but even so the tail is too long. But what other options are there? Are there better riders in the National League we could turn to? Or does Skornicki need to be sacrificed to restructure the team?

 

Very early in the season to be talking like this about the team, but the writing does seem to be on the wall if we do nothing

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The issue with Clegg is he's the lead reserve. I'm sure he'd be okay if someone came in to take that role. He's being asked to carry greaves and that is clearly a pressure he can't handle.

 

Last year he had Howarth. This year, and it's the old format as well, he's out on his own against some decent riders. He's never going to beat them.

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As I've been saying for over a decade now it's far too early to be worrying about your team. You got three points, do that for the rest of the year and grab a few bonus points on the road (you don't need to win) and you'll be well in the mix for fourth. Then start to worry about your team and make changes accordingly.

 

We all know how it works - don't we?

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But what other options are there? Are there better riders in the National League we could turn to? Or does Skornicki need to be sacrificed to restructure the team?

 

Danyon Hume is already better than Greaves. Although he already rides for Birmingham and Ipswich so availability may be an issue.

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Whilst everyone jumps up and down that we are a four man team, they are once again forgetting we are built as a top heavy side. Let's take a little look at just who the riders are winning and losing against in our two league meets so far.

 

The codes here are:-

 

WH: Won against higher average opponent

WL: Won against lower average opponent

LH: Lost against higher average opponent

LL: Lost against lower average opponent

 

Lindgren: WL 14, LL 6

Howarth: WH 4. WL 9, LH 5, LL 0

Skornicki: WH 3, WL 4, LH 6, LL 3

Thorssell: WL 9, LL 7

Masters: WH 5, WL 3, LH 6, LL 3

Clegg: WL 1. LL 2, LH 10

Greaves: LH 16

 

The biggest problem thus far is Thorssell He is not there to be a second string anymore, He's our second heat leader taking up nigh on 10pts of team building. He is also riding at the easier Number four position yet he has lost almost half of his races (7) to riders with a lower average than him.

 

Masters doesn't appear to have started all that well, however, he has a far tougher position at No 5 and as you can see is often racing against higher averaged riders than himself, against which he has held his own. He's lost 3 times to riders with a lower average.

 

Skornicki, surely we all knew it would take at least a month for him to fully get back into the swing of things? He has eased his way in as expected, yet he's only been beaten 3 times by riders lower than him and he's won 3 against those above him.

 

The reserves, it was obvious they would find it tough going. Again though the reality is, every opponent Greaves has faced has a higher average and bar the reserve race, Clegg is the same. Clegg has won once and lost twice against riders with a lower average.

 

Clearly we have to hope for more from Clegg at home where he needs to start beating the opposing no 6's from time to time and beating the opposing no 7's the vast majority of the time.

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Not entirely sure why we're particularly concerned about Skornicki at this stage, Seemed to improve as the meeting went on at Poole and let's not forget.. he was put in a heat leader spot, under the old format and we know how tough that is. Thorsell, the actual heat leader was given the much easier second string spot and didn't deliver.

There's no difference between riding at three and riding at four under this format. It's not unusual to put your third averaged rider at four so you have a stronger rider in heat 14.

 

The old format was pony, this format gives far more realistic averages than those that the EL format from the last few seasons produced.

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