AlanF Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 That's a disaster for Ellis. When everybody gets a real average he is going to be stuck on his inflated x1.4 average. Makes his place very vulnerable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCB Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Colin Pratt stated in last week's Speedway Star that the revised team limit had not yet been set!! One member of the BSPA has been tasked with coming up with a revised figure - based on teams' performances through to end April. So a tiny bit below 42 then. Christ the BSPA are an inept bunch. The break even figure is always likely to be just below 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poole keith Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 That's a disaster for Ellis. When everybody gets a real average he is going to be stuck on his inflated x1.4 average. Makes his place very vulnerable. dead right alan,would he be more effective in the championship on that average for a spell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucifer sam Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 To work out the equilibrium, we need to consider the following. The top riders are always likely to go out in Heat 15. This is an ‘average’ drawn meeting. Team A scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2 Team B scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2 Heat 15 features riders who had previously scored 10,10,8,8 – 36 points from 16 rides – an average of 9.00. After heat 15, they have scored 42 points from 20 rides –an average of 8.40. So Heat 15 takes around 0.5 away from averages. Therefore the equilibrium is approximately 41.50. That’s taken me 5 minutes to work out. All the best Rob Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 That's a disaster for Ellis. When everybody gets a real average he is going to be stuck on his inflated x1.4 average. Makes his place very vulnerable. He is probably pretty secure as he is one of onlt two British rider (unless Nick Morris has a British license). What is does do is mess up Swindon's low team average as he is averaging 1.50 (2.00 presumably) in a team average of 39.1. On his old average Swindon are way over 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidney the robin Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 The 1975 team would win this league pretty much ubchallenged.34 matches in the GBL yielding only 16 points are you knocking the level you are watching now.???😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanF Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 He is probably pretty secure as he is one of onlt two British rider (unless Nick Morris has a British license). What is does do is mess up Swindon's low team average as he is averaging 1.50 (2.00 presumably) in a team average of 39.1. On his old average Swindon are way over 42. I have no idea what the BSPA are planning to do when the new averages come out, but I hope they knock out his 1.4 multiplier and revert him back to last years "real" average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy robin Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Not good news that Adam won't get a new realistic average & there will be no chance of him going back to his average from last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starman2006 Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Not good news that Adam won't get a new realistic average & there will be no chance of him going back to his average from last year. Good idea this new average lark. Isn't it... Not 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A ORLOV Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Not good news that Adam won't get a new realistic average & there will be no chance of him going back to his average from last year. The only sensible thing to do is take the average he has attained in this season only 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 To work out the equilibrium, we need to consider the following. The top riders are always likely to go out in Heat 15. This is an average drawn meeting. Team A scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2 Team B scorers before Heat 15: 10,8,8,6,4,4,2 Heat 15 features riders who had previously scored 10,10,8,8 36 points from 16 rides an average of 9.00. After heat 15, they have scored 42 points from 20 rides an average of 8.40. So Heat 15 takes around 0.5 away from averages. Therefore the equilibrium is approximately 41.50. Thats taken me 5 minutes to work out. All the best Rob The reason you gor it so quick is because it's not exactly correct. The fifth ride effectively 'carries over' to the next batch of 4 rides as it calculated per ride rather than based on each match. In my opinion heat 15 shouldn't even be included in the averages anyway. It's not going to come to 42 exactly but it's as near as dammit and the logical figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucifer sam Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) The reason you gor it so quick is because it's not exactly correct. The fifth ride effectively 'carries over' to the next batch of 4 rides as it calculated per ride rather than based on each match. In my opinion heat 15 shouldn't even be included in the averages anyway. It's not going to come to 42 exactly but it's as near as dammit and the logical figure. Grachan, I am correct. Heat 15 will nearly always include riders who have averaged above 6.00 between them entering Heat 15. Therefore, Heat 15 has a overall net effect of reducing their averages. That's clear to anyone with a basic understanding in maths. Of course, there's over factors as well - R/R, reserves taking additional riders, etc. But the equilibrium over a number of meetings will be very close to 41.5. All the best Rob Edited April 7, 2017 by lucifer sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Grachan, I am correct. Heat 15 will nearly always include riders who have averaged above 6.00 between them entering Heat 15. Therefore, Heat 15 has a net effect of reducing their averages. That's clear to anyone with a basic understanding in maths. Of course, there's over factors as well - R/R, reserves taking additional riders, etc. But the equilibrium over a number of meetings will be very close to 41.5. All the best Rob Maybe it will. Just not in the way you described. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucifer sam Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Maybe it will. Just not in the way you described. In exactly the way I described. Grachan, where is your maths degree from? Mine's from Warwick. All the best Rob 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grachan Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) In exactly the way I described. Grachan, where is your maths degree from? Mine's from Warwick. All the best Rob BTEC lol The team averages using those scores come to 40.8 for both sides btw. Edited April 7, 2017 by grachan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Shovlar Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Get well soon Adam rotten luck like Kyle Newman. Isn't he number 2 in the averages? Doyle, Morris and two others can take his rides. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy robin Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Get well soon Adam rotten luck like Kyle Newman. Isn't he number 2 in the averages? Doyle, Morris and two others can take his rides. No 3 I think Steve or even 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Shovlar Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Just checked number 3. So Morris, Bellego, BWD and Grondal or Zak W can take rides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy robin Posted April 7, 2017 Report Share Posted April 7, 2017 Just checked number 3. So Morris, Bellego, BWD and Grondal or Zak W can take rides. I think I'd be quicker than Grondal on my Raleigh chopper as he will be the first to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattK Posted April 8, 2017 Report Share Posted April 8, 2017 Not good news that Adam won't get a new realistic average & there will be no chance of him going back to his average from last year. Which is why some bright people (namely me) said they should retain the 50 point limit all season and continue to inflate all averages by 1.4. We will now have a situation by the end April/beginning of May where some riders are on their old "inflated" averages (such as Ellis) and others are on new "real" averages. How on earth teams will be able to calculate their total points for team building purposes is anyone's guess. The other problem of course is what average do non-Premiership riders come in on? The regulations state that a rider with a rider with a previous EL MA is multiplied by 1.4, but surely this is no longer applicable once the new CMAs are published? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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