The Heat Leader List....

[Daytripper]

This is what Mike BV said:

 

'..... And changing the rules which fundamentally impact the sport without firstly clearly explaining to its paying customers why the rules have changed, the rationale used for the changes and indeed the riders the changes impact is, I would suggest, also a bit 'thick'...

(Even more so when your patrons have built up a less than generous view of your competence in decision making, especially in light of the overwhelming evidence of your previous 'track record')...'

 

I really don't see anything thin and petty in that.

 

.

Except that a full two months before Mikebv posted that comment the SCB had made an announcement basically stating there would be a heatleader list, three heatleaders per team, to deal with averages distorted by the race format. Not a difficult concept to grasp.

 

This is half the trouble with BSF ,certain people don't read the announcements then complain they weren't told.

[waiheke1]

Not going to quote the whole thing, but firstly thanks to Gordon Pairman for coming on here to explain. That said I have to take issues with a few points:

 

 

 

And now to the detail of the list: I have looked at SCB’s list and the underlying detail which I don’t really follow. What I do know, however, from many years of statistical sampling in my professional career is that statistics are a great guide, but sometimes, you also need to add a bit of common sense. Peter Oakes produces statistics on all riders, and we use these to aid our discussions. What we have found, however, is there is no simple arithmetic answer to the anomalous averages thrown up by the Elite League race format, so we have to apply knowledge and experience to the simple numbers to get to a reasoned answer.

have to disagree with most of this:

Firstly - surely prior to introducing the new heat format,, this should have been thought through? Many on here pointed out what would happen to averages, and were accused of scare mongering, of course the BSPA would have throught through how to deal with this. It seems in fact no plan was in place?

Secondly - statistics aren't perfect, but speedway has used them for years as the method of team building - CMaA earned through racing haven't been adjusted for "common sense."

thridly - SCB has shown is it quite possible to come up with a mathematical outcome. Or a simpler method would have been to just use a multiplier (approx 0.75 would have been about right) for meetings ridden as a second string. That would have been much better, imho, than applying "knowledge and experience"

 

 

The BSPA list consists of 38 riders and all but 11 appear on SCB’s list. I have looked at SCB’s 11 and those of the BSPA’s and these are as follows:

Not sure which of SCB's lists you are referring to, the most pertinent one i assume is the on the thread "weighted EL averages"

http://www.speedway-forum.co.uk/forums/index.php?showtopic=80571&page=1

 

SCB

 

Korneliussen

Karlsson

Ward

Walasek

North

Kennett

Michelsen

Wells

Swiderski

Milik

Bridger

 

BSPA

 

Hancock

Dudek

Przedpelski

Zmarzlik

Sayfutdinov

Lindback

Kasprzak

Hampel

Vaculik

Smolinski

Sundstrom

 

In addition, Watt, Michael Jepsen Jensen, Zengota and Miedzinski were in the BSPA’s top 38, but were ranked 39^, 41, 45 and 51 respectively in SCB’s list.

would need to see the list od SCB's you are referring to, but pretty sure SCB would inclue MJJ as a HL. Watt and Zengota was ranked 20th in SCBs list of EL riders in 2015, so sure he would agree with his inclusion. Miedzinski i think it is fair to say was anomally given he rode only a handful of meetings, and that is fair to say he would need to be classed as one.

 

Taking in turns SCB’s 11, my thoughts, and these are simply thoughts, are as follows:

 

Korneliussen – border line, but he performed poorly for Leicester

Karlsson – no longer a heat leader on what bsis? he average more riding as a heat leader than the likes of King, Joonas, Watt, who are all on the HL list?Zengots

Ward – should not have been on the list . ok, but SCB was simply ranking all riders who rode EL in 2015

Walasek – another border line but a 5.91 average is not impressive refer Karlsson

North – not a heat leader yet he performed better than Watt when rising as a HL, but Watt is on the list and North not?

Kennett – likewise refer Karlsson. On what bsis woudl you argue King should be on the list but not Kennet.

Michelsen – same again not on SCB's list of top 24 (25 exlcuing ward) riders in the EL in 2015 , so i think SCB would agree

Wells – and again not on SCB's list of top 24 (25 exlcuing ward) riders in the EL in 2015 , so i think SCB would agree

Swiderski – another border line not on SCB's list of top 24 (25 exlcuing ward) riders in the EL in 2015 , so i think SCB would agree

Milik – definitely not a heat leader not on SCB's list of top 24 (25 exlcuing ward) riders in the EL in 2015 , so i think SCB would agree

Bridger – not a heat leader not on SCB's list of top 24 (25 exlcuing ward) riders in the EL in 2015 , so i think SCB would agree

 

As I said, these are my opinions – others will have a different view, but we reached agreement by discussion and consensus using our knowledge, and perhaps, bias both for and against. But I would certainly argue that the BSPA 11 riders are all stronger than SCB’s.

very strange comment, of course your list is stronger You added 11 riders who didnt ride in EL in 2015, and are unlikely to ride EL in 2016.If you wanted to make the list stonger you could have added the likes of G Laguta as well, but it doesn't really adrress the issue does it? If you are adding riders like that though, I have to ask how Buzkoswksi could be ranked not a HL, but someone like King or Watt be ranked as a HL?

 

The inclusion of Watt and King on the list could be debated until the end of time, as could the exclusions of Korneliussen, Walasek, Swiderski and Buczkowski, but the list has been produced and we all have to work with it.

and that's why a mathematical approach would have been better imho.best

 

The other point is that we were told the reason for the HL list is because of distortion in averages due to the heat format. However, the list hasn't really addressed that. You have riders with artificially high averages, such as Zengota and Watt who are on the list, and others with arificially low averages, such as Walasek, Karlsson, North, Kennett, who are not on the list. the methodology used, of simply selecting the "best" riders doesn't actually really address that at all.

 

And one final query - why on earth were converted PL averages rather than converted EL averages used for the reserves?

[SteveEvans]

I've not read this whole thread but wanted to make the following comment.

 

The need for a heatleader list is another symptom of speedway rules over complicating themselves. Of course in 2014, given the standard of reserves, the race format had to be changed.

 

Last year the reserves were better and this year likely better still. The need to protect the reserves became obsolete and perhaps inhibit the progress of the better riders who had earned their right to scalp top dogs.

 

In my mind there is no reason to keep a race format that effectively gives three tiers of racing in one, unless its to keep payroll down (seeing that the riders on higher points money are meeting each other more and thus reducing their points and averages). This point is my own supposition and could be well off the mark and I'd happily be corrected if wrong.

 

The previous race format (still used in PL and NL) did have the top riders having harder rides but is way less extreme than what we have now.

 

The sport has to look at keeping what is a very simple concept of 4 rider and 4 laps as simple as possible within its rules. A heatleader list is an added complexity that hopefully isnt a permanent fixture.

Edited January 5, 2016 by SteveEvans

[g13webb]

Not going to quote the whole thing, but firstly thanks to Gordon Pairman for coming on here to explain. That said I have to take issues with a few points:

 

Thank you for your post. At times I felt 'Am I the only one who can see the problems being created' ?? but at last someone agrees with my views exactly.

 

The said heatleader list hasn't solved any problems, all it has done is papered over the big issue of distorted CMA's. But this problem won't go away. Each year that passes the situation will get more ridiculous. Sometime, somehow this problem will have to be addressed. The longer it is left the gap between reality and factual will get more distorted..

 

One more thing, in answer to your final query: the reason the BSPA use the PL averages for sorting out the draft riders is because their EL average are higher then the heatleaders.

That fact alone highlights the massive problem..........

[Woz01]

 

Thank you for your post. At times I felt 'Am I the only one who can see the problems being created' ?? but at last someone agrees with my views exactly.

 

The said heatleader list hasn't solved any problems, all it has done is papered over the big issue of distorted CMA's. But this problem won't go away. Each year that passes the situation will get more ridiculous. Sometime, somehow this problem will have to be addressed. The longer it is left the gap between reality and factual will get more distorted..

 

One more thing, in answer to your final query: the reason the BSPA use the PL averages for sorting out the draft riders is because their EL average are higher then the heatleaders.

That fact alone highlights the massive problem..........

But they could have simply increased the points limit to compensate and use what ever average they did achieve in 2015.

[g13webb]

But they could have simply increased the points limit to compensate and use what ever average they did achieve in 2015.

You too are missing the most important aspect of the CMA. If these figures don't relate to the riders ability, then they don't serve any purpose. You may as well pick numbers out of a hat for how accurate the CMA's are.... In one breath the BSPA are saying the figures are wrong and invent a list to overcome the problem., then continue using them same inaccurate points to access team strength.

 

Yes you could increase the points as you say, but that doesn't alter the distorted figures the rider's have at the moment. I haven't the lists of rider's averages with me at present, but I think I'm right in saying, Newman has a better EL CMA than Holder, but as riders, they are leagues apart. same with riders like Garrity and Kerr and anyone else riding in protected heats, these will all have these fictitious scores.

 

Try and explain that to someone new to the sport. 'This chap Holder is a bit special, was world champion 3 yrs back and is one of the best riders in the world.' and the reply comes; 'Oh how do you explain him being that good when a reserve rider has a better average then him.'

 

And we wonder why the sport has lost all creditability......

[Woz01]

You too are missing the most important aspect of the CMA. If these figures don't relate to the riders ability, then they don't serve any purpose. You may as well pick numbers out of a hat for how accurate the CMA's are.... In one breath the BSPA are saying the figures are wrong and invent a list to overcome the problem., then continue using them same inaccurate points to access team strength.

 

Yes you could increase the points as you say, but that doesn't alter the distorted figures the rider's have at the moment. I haven't the lists of rider's averages with me at present, but I think I'm right in saying, Newman has a better EL CMA than Holder, but as riders, they are leagues apart. same with riders like Garrity and Kerr and anyone else riding in protected heats, these will all have these fictitious scores.

 

Try and explain that to someone new to the sport. 'This chap Holder is a bit special, was world champion 3 yrs back and is one of the best riders in the world.' and the reply comes; 'Oh how do you explain him being that good when a reserve rider has a better average then him.'

 

And we wonder why the sport has lost all creditability......

But it wouldn't matter as they'd have started in the reserve position and get a new average after 4 meetings anyway. They'd be comparable to the other draft riders who would also had inflated averages Edited January 6, 2016 by woz01

[Hamish McRaker]

Why then is/was the number 2 position regularly quoted as the toughest riding position in the 1-7??

 

Maybe because the number 2 rides with and against each team's number 1 and against at least one other programmed opposition heat leader!!!

 

 

ps. As one or two other posters have commented on my post of 2 weeks ago - exactly who has been disadvantaged by the HL list??

 

 

 

pps. Thanks and well done Gordon - see you in March!!

Belle Vue, Lakeside, Swindon, Wolves, Leicester, Coventry, and Kings Lynn have been disadvantaged. This is because an error was made in the compilation of the list, and one club was smart and quick to take advantage.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Hamish McRaker

[stevebrum]

Belle Vue, Lakeside, Swindon, Wolves, Leicester, Coventry, and Kings Lynn have been disadvantaged. This is because an error was made in the compilation of the list, and one club was smart and quick to take advantage.

Agree that Buzz is wrongly assessed as second string.

However in the crazy world of BSPA logic second string Buzz starts as a heat leader whilst heat leader Lindgren starts as a second string.

Could they have messed it up anymore?

[Hamish McRaker]

Agree that Buzz is wrongly assessed as second string.

However in the crazy world of BSPA logic second string Buzz starts as a heat leader whilst heat leader Lindgren starts as a second string.

Could they have messed it up anymore?

A consequence of the format - necessary in 2014 & 2015, but should not be retained in 2016

[stevebrum]

A consequence of the format - necessary in 2014 & 2015, but should not be retained in 2016

Agreed.

A move to the more familiar heat format might help re-adress some of the inbalance in the averages.

[Woz01]

Yep its certainly not needed in 2016.

[racers and royals]

Yep its certainly not needed in 2016.

It is by the promoter`s or they will go skint !!!!

[Woz01]

It is by the promoter`s or they will go skint !!!!

Now that the top 5 can drop into reserve I dont see how it would save money.

Edited January 7, 2016 by woz01

[SteveLyric2]

If any top 3 drop to reserve, I hope they get reserve wages, as their form must be $#!t!!!

[arnieg]

Now that the top 5 can drop into reserve I dont see how it would save money.

assuming riders are still being paid per point and that stars get more per point then the current race formula means paying (just as an example):

 

Lindgren 7 points, Thorsell 7 points

 

Revert to the old formula and you pay Lindgren 9 and Thorsell 5 which will cost more.

[Woz01]

assuming riders are still being paid per point and that stars get more per point then the current race formula means paying (just as an example):

 

Lindgren 7 points, Thorsell 7 points

 

Revert to the old formula and you pay Lindgren 9 and Thorsell 5 which will cost more.

There is a real possibility that someone like Danny King can drop into a reserve role after a few matches using this system. You cant tell me that he wouldnt clean up and score double figures, the points and wage compared to him and Bates would be huge. You could say the same with Lindgren even in a 2nd string role. Surely if they were saving money they'd keep the draft rider in the reserve positions? The previous format would stop this and make it more difficult for draft rider to move up, top 5 to move down and if one did move down would have a much more difficult set of heats than is the case now.

If any top 3 drop to reserve, I hope they get reserve wages, as their form must be $#!t!!!

Some draft riders will average 7+ while at reserve and we've seen heatleaders average 5 with this format. It will happen. Edited January 7, 2016 by woz01

[g13webb]

There is a real possibility that someone like Danny King can drop into a reserve role after a few matches using this system. You cant tell me that he wouldnt clean up and score double figures, the points and wage compared to him and Bates would be huge. You could say the same with Lindgren even in a 2nd string role. Surely if they were saving money they'd keep the draft rider in the reserve positions? The previous format would stop this and make it more difficult for draft rider to move up, top 5 to move down and if one did move down would have a much more difficult set of heats than is the case now.

Some draft riders will average 7+ while at reserve and we've seen heatleaders average 5 with this format. It will happen.

 

I'm sure the BSPA have looked into this possibility.....

[A ORLOV]

 

I'm sure the BSPA have looked into this possibility.....

I doubt it, but it will be interesting to see if any "low scoring" number 4 or heat leader in any team that is guaranteed a play off position drops to reserve for the last 4 weeks of the season and the play offs.

[BWitcher]

 

While rolling averages make average fixing slightly more difficult I would expect to see one of the top four featuring a rider with an unusually low average and at reserve for the cup meetings.

Having a relatively 'big hitter' at reserve who can take 7 rides would probably be enough of an advantage to clinch to trophy.

 

 

Hello Drop a Cog.