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The Heathens V The Brummies 25/03


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Its almost time for the 2nd leg of the TT Challenge for the Dan McCormick Memorial Trophy, how do you guys see this panning out? after last weeks Ommering of Brum.

 

I see Phil Morris is the Team Manager of Brum for this meeting, is this a temporary thing or an occasional move ?. Since last weeks meeting, Brums No1 Adam Ellis has had a very poor few days in the meetings he has competed in at Ipswich and Lakeside, he took a fall at Ipswich in the Billy Sanders meeting and was feeling the worse for wear at Lakeside. He needs to quickly rediscover some form otherwise it will prove impossible for The Brummies to be competitive on Wednesday, remember they are a Top heavy Team, and this relies on Adam and Captain Tom Pom Perry getting double figures in all their meetings, Otherwise Brum simply dont have the strength in depth to cover a loss of form, so can Phil Morris quickly help Adam show some form ?. I have no doubts he will be a help to the more inexperienced members of the Team such as Alex Wilson, Zach Wotsisname, and Harvie Banks.

I expect Brum to put up a better showing, but doubt they can turn it around enough to win on the night. The Heathens were simply awesome last week and their wasnt a weak link to be seen in the Team winning 13 of the 15 Heats. Im going to plump for a Home win The Heathens are at home this week lol and admission is £1 less than last week, 49-41 to Cradley.

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I dont expect a Brummies win or even the score to be close but I'm hoping to see signs of progression from some of our younger riders. Last week was tough against a quality Cradley side but we did see flashes from all 3. Zach was challenging the Cradley riders at times, Harvie showed hes a pretty good gater which always helps and that second place ride from Alex was impressive. So an improvement on that no matter how small would be welcolme.

 

Adam struggled last week not only for the Brummies but in other meetings but we all know hes a top rider at this level and hopefully we see a return to form this week.

 

This meeting is all about getting ready for our first league match, we have Wednesday and then a challenge at Stoke on Sunday to prepare.

 

55-37 Cradley

Edited by Brummie Kev
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The more I look at that riding order for the Brummies, the more I think its wrong. Is there a rule in the National League whereby your second stings have to ride at 2 and 4 and your heat leaders at 1,3 and 5? If so the next bit wont be relevent but if there isnt this is the order I would have gone with:

 

1. Ellis

2. Banks

3. Kirby

4. Chapman

5. Perry

6. Wilson

7. Wajtknecht

 

Whatever the rules, I think its better to have Banks at 2 esp as hes new and riding with a big hitter like Ellis in 3 races, no pressure on him. Perry Barr is not a track where theres big home advantage so meetings generally go to the wire unless your team is super strong like Cradley is this year. So we have a strong top 2 in heats 13 and 15 but two 3pters in Heat 14. Would be better to have Chapman in !4 I reckon. Obviously as I say it all depends if the rules allow it.

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The more I look at that riding order for the Brummies, the more I think its wrong. Is there a rule in the National League whereby your second stings have to ride at 2 and 4 and your heat leaders at 1,3 and 5? If so the next bit wont be relevent but if there isnt this is the order I would have gone with:

 

1. Ellis

2. Banks

3. Kirby

4. Chapman

5. Perry

6. Wilson

7. Wajtknecht

 

Whatever the rules, I think its better to have Banks at 2 esp as hes new and riding with a big hitter like Ellis in 3 races, no pressure on him. Perry Barr is not a track where theres big home advantage so meetings generally go to the wire unless your team is super strong like Cradley is this year. So we have a strong top 2 in heats 13 and 15 but two 3pters in Heat 14. Would be better to have Chapman in !4 I reckon. Obviously as I say it all depends if the rules allow it.

 

The rules as i understand are that the Highest Average rider must ride at No1, then your 2 lowest average riders must ride at reserve, the remaining riders can ride at 2,3,4,5 as the Team manager prefers, actually i was thinking the same thing last night, but i think many Team managers want a strong No2 to ride in Heat8.

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The more I look at that riding order for the Brummies, the more I think its wrong. Is there a rule in the National League whereby your second stings have to ride at 2 and 4 and your heat leaders at 1,3 and 5? If so the next bit wont be relevent but if there isnt this is the order I would have gone with:

 

1. Ellis

2. Banks

3. Kirby

4. Chapman

5. Perry

6. Wilson

7. Wajtknecht

 

Whatever the rules, I think its better to have Banks at 2 esp as hes new and riding with a big hitter like Ellis in 3 races, no pressure on him. Perry Barr is not a track where theres big home advantage so meetings generally go to the wire unless your team is super strong like Cradley is this year. So we have a strong top 2 in heats 13 and 15 but two 3pters in Heat 14. Would be better to have Chapman in !4 I reckon. Obviously as I say it all depends if the rules allow it.

Your best bet is to keep Ellis and Perry apart aside from heat 15. Two heat wins gets you 6 points, if they race in a heat together they can only score you 5.

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Your best bet is to keep Ellis and Perry apart aside from heat 15. Two heat wins gets you 6 points, if they race in a heat together they can only score you 5.

This was also something I was thinking. Usually I wouldn't do it because you end up with a 'weaker' heat leader alongside a reserve, but once Zach gets going, in a couple of meetings, put him at 6 to partner Chapman twice which isn't weak and by the time he moves up put Wilson at 6 who will have found his feet by then. As you say it allows Ellis and Perry to go out and potentially win 4 races each and on paper you have a stronger pairing than Chapman & Banks as well!

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The more I look at that riding order for the Brummies, the more I think its wrong. Is there a rule in the National League whereby your second stings have to ride at 2 and 4 and your heat leaders at 1,3 and 5?

 

You can place your 2nd to 5th riders where you want them, aside from the 1,6 & 7 positions obviously.

 

I can see where you're coming from but I wouldn't. You can only use a tac ride up to heat 12 so I'd prepare myself for potentially using it by keeping this heat strong and 'sacrificing' heat 14. With the Brummies strong in heats 13 and 15 most weeks, assuming Ellis and Perry do as well as expected you can be looking at heat advantages in heats 12, 13 and 15. You still have the option of reserve sub's in heat 14 depending on form on the night. It's all swings and roundabouts really as you're trying to second guess how a meeting will pan out before tapes up.

 

Your best bet is to keep Ellis and Perry apart aside from heat 15. Two heat wins gets you 6 points, if they race in a heat together they can only score you 5.

 

At face value, and on a calculator, you're right of course. But it does then put added pressure on these two lads to actually go out and win every race. They're under enough pressure as it is because there's no doubt the Brummies are placing a lot of faith in them scoring probably 12+ each in every meeting (from 5, not incl tac rides). I'd be slightly cautious about doing that. It would also mean probably putting Chapman at 5 against some stronger opposition and 'only' (forgive the choice of word) partnered by a reserve 3 times.

 

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I expect from this meeting what I originally expected last week. Which is to say a Heathens win but by no means a 60+ score for us. One can safely assume, or should we?, that Ellis will score much more freely this week.. I can see Wajknecht scoring a couple/few more and I see no reason why Perry, Chapman and even Kirby can't replicate their score. Add to this that I do not expect the Heathens to have such a strong performance (no failure to finish a race last week - at least one often at NL level) and I can something more like 50-40 (give or take).

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You can place your 2nd to 5th riders where you want them, aside from the 1,6 & 7 positions obviously.

 

I can see where you're coming from but I wouldn't. You can only use a tac ride up to heat 12 so I'd prepare myself for potentially using it by keeping this heat strong and 'sacrificing' heat 14. With the Brummies strong in heats 13 and 15 most weeks, assuming Ellis and Perry do as well as expected you can be looking at heat advantages in heats 12, 13 and 15. You still have the option of reserve sub's in heat 14 depending on form on the night. It's all swings and roundabouts really as you're trying to second guess how a meeting will pan out before tapes up.

 

 

At face value, and on a calculator, you're right of course. But it does then put added pressure on these two lads to actually go out and win every race. They're under enough pressure as it is because there's no doubt the Brummies are placing a lot of faith in them scoring probably 12+ each in every meeting (from 5, not incl tac rides). I'd be slightly cautious about doing that. It would also mean probably putting Chapman at 5 against some stronger opposition and 'only' (forgive the choice of word) partnered by a reserve 3 times.

 

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I expect from this meeting what I originally expected last week. Which is to say a Heathens win but by no means a 60+ score for us. One can safely assume, or should we?, that Ellis will score much more freely this week.. I can see Wajknecht scoring a couple/few more and I see no reason why Perry, Chapman and even Kirby can't replicate their score. Add to this that I do not expect the Heathens to have such a strong performance (no failure to finish a race last week - at least one often at NL level) and I can something more like 50-40 (give or take).

I agree with the opposition point, but he's partnered with Banks anyway. Arguably the management think he's the 'worst' of the 3 pointers which is why he isn't at reserve. Imo I would normally have the best riders at 1 & 5 but the Brummies are very top heavy whilst having a third heat leader more than capable of holding his own!

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I fear another tonking for this one by a similar score as before.

 

Pointers for the season for each side in my mind are

Will Harris score better than last week (I think he will) & will Neale achieve a similar score and continue to gate well. If so Cradley will be a very dangerous proposition.

 

For Birmingham I think the key indicators will be the scores of Kirby & Chapman as its well documented what the "main two" riders can score but can they add significant back up. Other than that its how on the pace Wilson & Banks look.

 

Something tells me that a Birmingham side with a point to prove may over cook things a little producing a meeting with many stoppages....

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Get you're point but I was just trying to hold off on judging the new boys at the moment. There's perhaps a case for moving Kirby to 4 which means the weakest of the top 5 at 2, which is traditionally the way teams always lined up. That may make some teams, such as Brummies, feel very exposed in heat 8 though. Swings and roundabouts.

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