2015 Gp Wild Cards

[arnieg]

 

There are now three or four threads discussing wildcards – time to consolidate the debate.

 

First who won't need a wildcard?

 

Hancock, Woffinden, Pedersen, Kasprzak, Zagar and Holder (in the case of the last two they aren't mathematically there yet, but let's assume they avoid injury and score at least averagely.)

 

Of the remaining riders we know that Iversen is stuck on 87.

 

If the other riders score at the rate they have been to date then we get:

 

Lindgren … 92

Batchelor … 88

Smolinski … 87

Hampel … 84

Bjerre … 80

Jonsson … 79

 

Given that even Jonsson could still make the top 8 (scores of 17,8,7 would put him over 90), it looks very unlikely that Iversen will be in the top 8 come the end of the season. Lindgren probably will be and Batchelor is best placed to make eighth - but Hampel (if he returns to form) and Bjerre (double figures in the last two rounds) shouldn't be discounted.

 

BSI have traditionally been quite generous towards the riders in 9th/10th and even 11th so the riders in those positions must be in with a good chance of a wildcard.

 

Note Bjerre and Smolinski (assuming Zagar withdraws in good time) will be in the GP Challenge – if Smolinski declines Zagar's place Batchelor is next in line.

 

The GP Challenge result is the biggest unknown. The field looks stronger than in previous years, so we may have a better chance of getting three good quality qualifiers. Note that there is still a wildcard to be chosen.

 

Favourites:

 

Kildemand (probably deserves a wild card, but if Bjerre joins Pedersen in the top 8 and NKI gets a wild card that would be four Danes – so he better qualify on merit)

Doyle (might get a wild card pick if Ward is out in the cold, but with Batchelor also in contention he is in a similar position to Kildemand)

Kolodziej (with Hampel a strong contender for a wild card, and other poles in contention then it looks like the Challenge is his best bet)

Jonasson (if Lindgren fails to make top 8 he could come into consideration as a wild card to ensure Swedish representation, otherwise will need to do well in GP challenge as recent form doesn't really justify a second Swede)

Janowski (as for Kolodziej)

Bjerre (could come fouth in the Challenge, ninth in the GP and still miss out on a wildcard if other Danes come in the GP challenge top 3)

 

Possibles

 

Andersen (not a wild card contender)

Przem Pawlicki (as for Kolodziej)

Korneliussen (not a wild card contender)

Smolinski (a strong finish in the GP series taking him to ninth and good ticket sales in Germany might just see him come into wildcard contention)

 

Unlikely

 

Harris (for his sake – just say no)

Woodward (not a wild card contender)

Sundstrom (generally disappointing year, not a wild card contender)

Klindt (remember he's just five rides away from the GP series)

Covatti (assuming he is home seed)

 

 

Then other riders to consider:

 

Ward – can't second guess the Tribunal decision, but commercial considerations will make him a candidate for a wild card if available

Sayfutdinov – doesn't seem likely at the moment, but sports politics can be very fluid, and murky. Sure BSI would jump at his return if they could get him

Jepsen Jensen – a very strong contender based on his GP performances to date

Zmarzlik – too many Poles, and needs to show his abilities away from Gorzow, but a strong contender for 2016

Protasiewicz – on 2014 form, but age GP history and profusion of Poles mean he isn't worth considering

Laguta's – probably out on account of politics, but Artem did compete in GP qualifiers withdrawing from his semi after one ride

Vaculik – would be a decent pick, but there are just too many other riders in the frame.

 

In BSI's fantasy land they'd pick:

 

1. Iversen

2. Ward

3. Sayfutdinov

4. Jepsen Jensen (if Poles do well in Challenge)

or Hampel (if Danes do well in Challenge)

 

I would like to see Kildemand, Doyle and Kolodziej get thru from the challenge, with Iversen, Sayfutdinov, Jepsen Jensen and Hampel as wild cards. (Assuming Lindgren is in the top 8). If Sayfutdinov is not in play then I'd go for Batchelor or Bjerre. I'd leave Ward out (unless he is found to be innocent), but consider giving him a wild card for 2016

[Ghostwalker]

THJ should be awarded a wild card if Lindgren missed out on top 8 and if THJ won't be top 3 in the GP challenge.

 

My 4 picks at the moment (if Lindgren is outside top 8):

 

1. Thomas H Jonasson

2. Zmarzlik

3. Iversen

4. Jepsen Jensen or Kildemand

Edited September 1, 2014 by Ghostwalker

[Panthers89]

Id agree with that Ghostwalker.

[New Science]

There are now three or four threads discussing wildcards – time to consolidate the debate.

 

First who won't need a wildcard?

 

Hancock, Woffinden, Pedersen, Kasprzak, Zagar and Holder (in the case of the last two they aren't mathematically there yet, but let's assume they avoid injury and score at least averagely.)

 

Of the remaining riders we know that Iversen is stuck on 87.

 

If the other riders score at the rate they have been to date then we get:

 

Lindgren … 92

Batchelor … 88

Smolinski … 87

Hampel … 84

Bjerre … 80

Jonsson … 79

 

Given that even Jonsson could still make the top 8 (scores of 17,8,7 would put him over 90), it looks very unlikely that Iversen will be in the top 8 come the end of the season. Lindgren probably will be and Batchelor is best placed to make eighth - but Hampel (if he returns to form) and Bjerre (double figures in the last two rounds) shouldn't be discounted.

 

BSI have traditionally been quite generous towards the riders in 9th/10th and even 11th so the riders in those positions must be in with a good chance of a wildcard.

 

Note Bjerre and Smolinski (assuming Zagar withdraws in good time) will be in the GP Challenge – if Smolinski declines Zagar's place Batchelor is next in line.

 

The GP Challenge result is the biggest unknown. The field looks stronger than in previous years, so we may have a better chance of getting three good quality qualifiers. Note that there is still a wildcard to be chosen.

 

Favourites:

 

Kildemand (probably deserves a wild card, but if Bjerre joins Pedersen in the top 8 and NKI gets a wild card that would be four Danes – so he better qualify on merit)

Doyle (might get a wild card pick if Ward is out in the cold, but with Batchelor also in contention he is in a similar position to Kildemand)

Kolodziej (with Hampel a strong contender for a wild card, and other poles in contention then it looks like the Challenge is his best bet)

Jonasson (if Lindgren fails to make top 8 he could come into consideration as a wild card to ensure Swedish representation, otherwise will need to do well in GP challenge as recent form doesn't really justify a second Swede)

Janowski (as for Kolodziej)

Bjerre (could come fouth in the Challenge, ninth in the GP and still miss out on a wildcard if other Danes come in the GP challenge top 3)

 

Possibles

 

Andersen (not a wild card contender)

Przem Pawlicki (as for Kolodziej)

Korneliussen (not a wild card contender)

Smolinski (a strong finish in the GP series taking him to ninth and good ticket sales in Germany might just see him come into wildcard contention)

 

Unlikely

 

Harris (for his sake – just say no)

Woodward (not a wild card contender)

Sundstrom (generally disappointing year, not a wild card contender)

Klindt (remember he's just five rides away from the GP series)

Covatti (assuming he is home seed)

 

 

Then other riders to consider:

 

Ward – can't second guess the Tribunal decision, but commercial considerations will make him a candidate for a wild card if available

Sayfutdinov – doesn't seem likely at the moment, but sports politics can be very fluid, and murky. Sure BSI would jump at his return if they could get him

Jepsen Jensen – a very strong contender based on his GP performances to date

Zmarzlik – too many Poles, and needs to show his abilities away from Gorzow, but a strong contender for 2016

Protasiewicz – on 2014 form, but age GP history and profusion of Poles mean he isn't worth considering

Laguta's – probably out on account of politics, but Artem did compete in GP qualifiers withdrawing from his semi after one ride

Vaculik – would be a decent pick, but there are just too many other riders in the frame.

 

In BSI's fantasy land they'd pick:

 

1. Iversen

2. Ward

3. Sayfutdinov

4. Jepsen Jensen (if Poles do well in Challenge)

or Hampel (if Danes do well in Challenge)

I would like to see Kildemand, Doyle and Kolodziej get thru from the challenge, with Iversen, Sayfutdinov, Jepsen Jensen and Hampel as wild cards. (Assuming Lindgren is in the top 8). If Sayfutdinov is not in play then I'd go for Batchelor or Bjerre. I'd leave Ward out (unless he is found to be innocent), but consider giving him a wild card for 2016

 

Good balanced post pretty much agree with all your theories

[JCookie]

Pointless even discussing it.

 

9th

10th

Someone who just missed out in the challenge

Harris / Some other boring no-mark

 

[New Science]

THJ should be awarded a wild card if Lindgren missed out on top 8 and if THJ won't be top 3 in the GP challenge.

 

My 4 picks at the moment (if Lindgren is outside top 8):

 

1. Thomas H Jonasson

2. Zmarzlik

3. Iversen

4. Jepsen Jensen or Kildemand

With 2 GP'S in Sweden there will be 2 Swedes GP line up.If Lindgren doesn't qualify top 8 and or Jonasson throu the challenge then BSI have a major headache.Worst case scenario 2 Swedes plus NKI and Darcy

[waiheke1]

Excellent post arnie g. Would suggest piotr pawlicki perhaps ranks alongside zmarzlick as a chance of a wild card, though dependent on a) )hampel making top 8 2) no pole quslifying through challenge and possibly 3) two swedes qualifying or one swede quslifying and emil turning down a slot.

 

Ideally I'd like to see:

Top 8: tai Hancock kk Pedersen zagar holder lindgren hampel

Gp challenge: kilderman thj doyle

Wildcards: ward emil puk piotr pawlicki/zmarzlik

 

Mjj and vaculik the two most deserving riders to miss out, but hard to see a wild card going to mjj if already three danes. Maybe could get it if emil then vaculik both turn down a place, or if ward banned.

[Ghostwalker]

Definitely no wild card to Ward. If he want to be in the SGP he have to go through the qualifiers and earn his place.

It's about time that he have to work for something rather then having it served to him on a silver plate.

 

I also would prefer Przemyslaw Pawlicki over his brother.

[waiheke1]

Definitely no wild card to Ward. If he want to be in the SGP he have to go through the qualifiers and earn his place.

It's about time that he have to work for something rather then having it served to him on a silver plate.

 

I also would prefer Przemyslaw Pawlicki over his brother.

I'm fine seeing ward back in next year, along with emil one of the two best riders in the workd to watch, and the ban this year has cost him a good chance of beung world champion.

I'd be happy to see prem pawkicki in, perhaps at the expense of doyle in my above list.

[salty]

The Ward conundrum is interesting. Teach him a lesson by giving him a ban to the end of the season, but then giving him a wild card? Thing is although his sponsors have less influence with the FIM, are they able to wield more weight when it comes to the nominations (think there was a precedent a few years ago when Pepe got a pick on the back of Pentel's patronage)? Or will his sponsors walk away following his latest brush with the authorities?

 

I think MJJ may struggle to get a pick as with 5 Danes in the challenge he will be lucky if none of them get a top 3 slot.

Edited September 1, 2014 by salty

[racers and royals]

With THJ crowned Swedish champion last evening that should have done his chances of a wildcard no harm at all-if he doesn`t make it in from the challenge final.

[OveFundinFan]

I think I may have only seen THJ ride once maybe twice on Eurosport covering the Swedish league on Tuesday, so cant really comment on how good his is, but winning the Swedish Championship, although it didnt seem to strong a competition even if AJ had rode, but I agree r&r that winning it must be a big plus for a wld card, cause Sweden will need one if none get through from the challenge.

[PHILIPRISING]

SURELY Lindgren will make the top eight if neither Iversen or Ward compete again this year.

[spook]

just been putting my thoughts down about qualifiers and WC picks in the GP Challenge thread................ good post Arnie ..... although I think a business focussed BSI will still use quota as a starting point... they always do

usually they are lucky that the qualifiers in the GP challenge dont interfere with their plans too much...... but this year it is a recipe for disaster for them with so many top guys relying on full WC's .....and a high chance of some of them being blocked simply by a full quota of their countrymen qualifying

[PHILIPRISING]

HAVE also posted some comments in the GP Challenge thread....

[customhouseregular]

Am I being naive here but if a rider is good enough to have won a GP he deserves being in contention for a wildcard. This puts Sayfutdinov, Zmarzlik, Smolinski and others firmly in the frame. My problem with wildcards is the practice of the host track nominating their wildcard. This is fine for Poland, Denmark etc. but in the case of New Zealand and Finland for example and in the past Croatia, Italy etc. non-competitive riders have taken the 16 jacket at the expense of someone better qualified.

[spook]

I guess so CHR...........but others who have won a GP are:

Miedzinski
Harris
MJJ
Vaculik
Lindback
Holta
Andersen

& i'd only consider 2 of those

Zmarzlik pulled off his very 'special' GP (re: Miedzinski) on his home track and needs a couple of years matching his home performances on other tracks imho
Smolinski has never been the same since his handlebar button was discovered & outlawed......... & in this day and age a rider who finds it hard to unglue himself from the white line really stands out like an underperforming sore thumb (aka 'an Andersen')

the local WC's can be a bit of a farce but could possibly be the difference between the series visiting only 4 countries or more

edit: that comes across as a bit rude about Smolinski .... i'm full of admiration for what he has achieved in recent years but since his win and controversy I think we have witnessed his true standard at this level and it is probably currently shy of the required mark.......... maybe if he changed his nationality to British.....

Edited September 13, 2014 by spook

[customhouseregular]

Hmmm...I take your point about previous GP winners. At that rate the whole series would be made up of wildcards!. I must admit (being of the old-school speedway fan variety) that I have misgivings about the GP system, it's scoring, qualification, wildcards etc., but accept it is the system we now have

Being at Wembley in 1981 with 92,000 for the world Final outshone being in Cardiff on 12th. July...for this old fan anyway.

[spook]

I can imagine that was quite the occasion! I was lucky enough to experience the first Odsal World Final and the excitement levels on the night and building up surpassed what ive experienced with the GP's...... but the GP's are still cracking & I think are a better fit for this modern, media and businesslike era

Edited September 13, 2014 by spook

[customhouseregular]

I was talking to my 86 year-old Mum earlier. She and my my 90 year-old Dad were pre-war and post-war West Ham fans, as was I during the 60's. We both feel that modern-day Speedway with it's "showbiz" approach, silencers, dirt deflectors and general "sanitised" presentation has lost the common touch. Speedway back then with it's basic machinery and rough edges appealed to the "working man". The current glossiness of the GP's has taken the edge off for a lot of us oldies. I was like a schoolboy going to Cardiff for my first meeting in 30 years, but left feeling I would not rush to go back next year. Having said that I still love my sport and will be tuning in to Eurosport tonight for the Nordic GP...sadly sans Greg. p.s.-The Odsal stadium, with some money and a lot of tlc would, in my humble opinion be a great venue for a United Kingdom GP (If Poland can have 3, we can have 2!).