jenga Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 lewis kerr for me.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T.N.T. Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thought that might be the case, the 2nd string heats will no doubt be similar as previous years, yes I know reserves are weaker but I dont see it making a huge difference to 2nd strings averages overall. The only way it wont make much difference is that once they get a new average they will move up to heat leader and then get harder races so their average will go down again. Richie Worrall, Ryan Fisher, Adam Skornicki. Daniel Nermark, Mikkel Michelsen, Mikkel Bech, Simon Gustafsson and Peter Ljung will all move up to a top three place in their teams during the season ......... then possibly move back down by September !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I was concerned about this as the next person but after playing on spreadsheets, I'm happy that it's not going to be a big deal. With a half sensible new heat structure (with EL draft reserves protected), for the main body of the team, the comparative av. CMA of opponents each rider will face during their own programmed will only vary by around +/- 10% per race versus 2013. I have to disagree. If the format is as expected (i.e. reservces entirely protected from heat leaders) then I would expect roughly the following for the “average” rider in each position, expecting a variance of +/- 2 points depending on individual. I’ve given an expected average for each position, and in brackets approximate “starting” average. Number 1: 6 out of 8 points against heat leaders, 4 out of 4 against second strings, two points from heat 15. Expected Average 9.6 (starting 8.30) Number 2: 4 out of 4 points against heat leaders, 3 out of 4 against second strings, one point from heat 15: Average 6.4 (starting 7.3) Number 3: 2 out of 4 points against heat leaders, 3 out of 4 against second strings: Average 5.0 (6.4) Second strings: 0.75 points out of 4 against heat leaders, 2 out of 4 against second strings, 3.5 out of 4 against reserves: Average 6.25 (4.75) Reserves: 0.5 out of 4 against second strings, 4 out of eight against reserves: Average 4.25 (2?) High level assumptions, but not too far off the mark I wouldn’t think? Essentially a three point swing in difficulty between being a third heat leader and second string (i.e. expect thrid heat leader to drop 1.5 from their old average, and second strings to gain the same). This will be most marked for riders coming in on an “assessed” average, as the impact will be immediate rather than gradual under rolling averages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz01 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) The only way it wont make much difference is that once they get a new average they will move up to heat leader and then get harder races so their average will go down again. Richie Worrall, Ryan Fisher, Adam Skornicki. Daniel Nermark, Mikkel Michelsen, Mikkel Bech, Simon Gustafsson and Peter Ljung will all move up to a top three place in their teams during the season ......... then possibly move back down by September !! Ive no doubt Fisher and Gustafsson will as their averages are close to Hansen and Morris anyway. If anything it will be the likes of Howarth and Grajczonek with the bigger increase but for me thats because their careers are on the up more than their actual programmed rides. Heat leaders on the other hand is a different matter, they will have more difficult rides so can see most drop their average. Edited January 30, 2014 by woz01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Panda Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Josh Grajczonek and probably Kyle Howarth........... RP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrow boy Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 Got to be Milik for me. In on a 4 when he will probably achieve at least 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenga Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 (edited) all riders in the elite league will increase their average, because there is not enough good riders to battle against. i can see all the reserves having an average of 4.00 plus. then next year the top guys will be struggling to get a team spot.. .. IMO.. Edited February 11, 2014 by jenga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 Got to be Milik for me. In on a 4 when he will probably achieve at least 7.Will no doubt increase his aberage but cant see it being 7. 7 would see him promoted to a heat leader slot, where with expected formula I couldnt see him averaging more than 4. I think he will remain a second string with an average of about six.all riders in the elite league will increase their average, because there is not enough good riders tobattle against. i can see all the reserves having an average of 4.00 plus. then next year the top guys will be struggling to get a team spot.. .. IMO..Not all riders will improve their average. The weaker heat leaders are actually likely to decrease. Bear in mind there are only a certsin number of points to go round - top five for each team start with a cumulative average of 32 and avsilable points each meeting for top five is likely to equate average of around 32.8 (even assuming reserves take two points off top 5 per meeting there are only 74 points from 44 rides available which would equate to an average of 33.3 per team). So there will not be a massive increase overall. The "average" reserve will aversge a bit over 4, but its highly unlikely that they all will. Someone like garritty may average as high as eight, the weakest reserves may average under 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontforgetthefueltapsbruv Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 Will no doubt increase his aberage but cant see it being 7. 7 would see him promoted to a heat leader slot, where with expected formula I couldnt see him averaging more than 4. I think he will remain a second string with an average of about six. Not all riders will improve their average. The weaker heat leaders are actually likely to decrease. Bear in mind there are only a certsin number of points to go round - top five for each team start with a cumulative average of 32 and avsilable points each meeting for top five is likely to equate average of around 32.8 (even assuming reserves take two points off top 5 per meeting there are only 74 points from 44 rides available which would equate to an average of 33.3 per team). So there will not be a massive increase overall. The "average" reserve will aversge a bit over 4, but its highly unlikely that they all will. Someone like garritty may average as high as eight, the weakest reserves may average under 3. and of course whatever the reserves average it wont matter as they will not actually be given an official CMA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Turner Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 Darcy Ward. Could easily put another 6 or 7 on his average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevebrum Posted February 11, 2014 Report Share Posted February 11, 2014 Got to be Milik for me. In on a 4 when he will probably achieve at least 7. According to Poole fans he is on the right assessed average, but i agree with you. Hence why he is on the wrong assessed average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 According to Poole fans he is on the right assessed average, but i agree with you. Hence why he is on the wrong assessed average.Tbf, it would be wrong to base average on what he is expected to score as a second string in the new format, as that would give him an inflated average compared to those with rolling averages from 2013. Agree he should have been a 5 though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steven101 Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mikkel michelsen & robert lambert Desperately want lambert to set the elite league alight hope he does 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superguest Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 Bech, Mikkelsen & Milik as they are all on low aves. Wouldn't begrudge Scrambleman a decent season. Hopefully Wells t o improve but not so guaranteed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
proud panther Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 Garrity will clean up at reserve all season, & should be closer to 6 by the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 Garrity will clean up at reserve all season, & should be closer to 6 by the end of the season.More surely? Likely to face other reserves eight times, and second strings four. Should pick up on average at least six points against other reserves (more likely 7) and say one sgainst the second strings.Actually, likely to have an exra ride against a reserve and two second strings - say a pointvfrom that, would give him 9 from 5, so an average of around 7.2 exc bonus points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz01 Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 More surely? Likely to face other reserves eight times, and second strings four. Should pick up on average at least six points against other reserves (more likely 7) and say one sgainst the second strings. Actually, likely to have an exra ride against a reserve and two second strings - say a pointvfrom that, would give him 9 from 5, so an average of around 7.2 exc bonus points. This is why I rate us highly, we should be getting 12+ from the reserves programmed rides meaning the top 5 only need 33+ between them. Although the top 5 isnt as strong as a few others they are very capable of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy robin Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) Who cares as averages will be a joke in this new format anyway!!!! Edited February 12, 2014 by Crazy robin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 12, 2014 Report Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is why I rate us highly, we should be getting 12+ from the reserves programmed rides meaning the top 5 only need 33+ between them. Although the top 5 isnt as strong as a few others they are very capable of that.Exactly.Hans should score 11 or 12from 5, harris 8/9 from 5, 12 from reserves. Assuming tge second strings pick up 7 out of 8 points vs reserves. That leaves 7 points needed from 16 remaining rides from the rest of yhe team. A very average top 5 imho but garritty means a very good shout for the play offs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Turner Posted May 10, 2014 Report Share Posted May 10, 2014 Who cares as averages will be a joke in this new format anyway!!!! Very true. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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