Top 30 Riders In The World 2013

[waiheke1]

I posted this on the wildcards thread, but thought i’d put it on its own thread.

 

Basically I assessed riders performance in the following events, which were weighted in order of importance:

1. SGP
   
2. League performances across Elite League and Swedish and Polish top flight. Includes all matches up to EL final (not included)
   
3. SWC/SEC (equally weighted)
   
4. Gp qualifiers/under 21 world champs (equally weighted)
   

 

Performances in the competitions were weighted depenent on the difficulty of the completion (difficulty ascertained by comparing the result of the top 15-20 riders in that competition compared to how they performed others).

 

The top 30 riders of 2013 emerged to be (I’ve attached their “weighted average” not because the figure has any real meaning, but to show how close(or otherwise) riders were)

 

 

1

Jaroslaw Hampel

10.89

2

Tai Woffinden

10.62

3

Emil Sayfutdinov

10.37

4

Niels K Iversen

10.36

5

Darcy Ward

9.98

6

Chris Holder

9.65

7

Nicki Pedersen

9.43

8

Greg Hancock

9.15

9

Grigorij Laguta

8.61

10

Tomasz Gollob

8.32

11

Adrian Miedzinski

8.12

12

Kenneth Bjerre

8.00

13

Matej Zagar

7.99

14

Piotr Protasiewicz

7.87

15

Patryk Dudek

7.75

16

Maciej Janowski

7.73

17

Michael Jepsen Jepsen

7.63

18

Krzysztof Kasprzak

7.50

19

Artem Laguta

7.46

20

Grzegorz WALASEK

7.45

21

Janusz KOŁODZIEJ

7.44

22

Troy Batchelor

7.41

23

Piotr PAWLICKI

7.39

24

Hans Andersen

7.18

25

Martin Smolinski

7.12

26

Przemyslaw Pawlicki

6.95

27

Peter Karlsson

6.89

28

Danny King

6.86

29

Fredrik Lindgren

6.63

30

Krzysztof BUCZKOWSKI

6.57

 

While the list ties reasonably closely to what in tuition would suggest it should, a few key points to note.

1. Hampel emerges as top rider ahead of Woffinden, as a result of performances in SWC and league matches. This doens’t mean that Woffinden wasn’t a deserving World champ, and obviously a stats based approach doesn’t reflect the injury cloud woffinden was riding under
   
2. No other real surprises in the top10-15, confirms the thoughts of many that Holder, Gollob and Laguta are the three most deserving wild card picks. If selected along with a swede, would mean all of the Worlds top 10 from this year, and 12 out of top 15, will be in next seasons GP
   
3. Peter Karlsson the top swede ahead of Lindgren, though not much between the top Swedes. THJ not in the top 50.
   
4. Miedzinski's victory in Torun boosts hime from just outside the top 20 to 11th overall.
   
5. Danny King , by avoiding being picked for SWC scrapes into the top 30. Nicholls is the only other Brit in the top 50.
   
6. Vaculik’s SEC championship win not enough to even elevate him to the top 40 riders, his mediocre league form and poor GP performances dragging down his “average.”
   

Appreciate peoples thought on whther the above ties reasonably closely to who they would perceive the worlds top riders to be.

Edited October 15, 2013 by waihekeaces1

[phillipsr]

Really well compiled list pretty much what you would expect. Pretty worrying from a British point of view though

[Gavan]

Thj not in the top 50! yet there are still some on this forum who think he deserves a wild card lol

[LagutaRacingFan]

Thj not in the top 50! yet there are still some on this forum who think he deserves a wild card lol

 

THJ rides for Gdansk in the 2nd Polish division.. He's top of the averages in that league.

[phillipsr]

Steve Boxall is top of NL averages should he grt one

[Gavan]

THJ rides for Gdansk in the 2nd Polish division.. He's top of the averages in that league.

second division in Poland

second string in a substandard elite league.

 

based on this rationale then Ben Barker and Lewis Bridger must be in line for one.

 

continual tripe coming from out of your mouth yet again!

Edited October 12, 2013 by Gavan

[iand]

Steve Boxall is top of NL averages should he grt one

Course not. His only 5th in the averages. Lewis Blackbird top.

[LagutaRacingFan]

second division in Poland

second string in a substandard elite league.

 

based on this rationale then Ben Barker and Lewis Bridger must be in line for one.

 

continual tripe coming from out of your mouth yet again!

 

LOL!

Ben Barker doesn't ride in the Polish division and Bridger's rides in the 3rd/4th division.

 

http://www.zuzelend.com/statystyki-1-liga

[dave69]

WHY NO NICK MALLETT ?

 

sorry for shouting .

[SCB]

Id say it's pretty spot on, this kind of thing will always have anomalies and it'll always be difficult to fully work out as how do you decide weightings for each league/competition? As lets be honest, a heat 15 in an EL meeting is harder than if you're riding at number 4 and don't get a heat 15 and I'm sure the Polish/Swedish league have a similar anomaly. Still interesting.

 

My biggest shock is Zagar is so low, did well in the GPs, did well for BV. I assume he was a bit rubbish elsewhere?

Edited October 14, 2013 by SCB

[LagutaRacingFan]

Id say it's pretty spot on, this kind of thing will always have anomalies and it'll always be difficult to fully work out as how do you decide weightings for each league/competition? As lets be honest, a heat 15 in an EL meeting is harder than if you're riding at number 4 and don't get a heat 15 and I'm sure the Polish/Swedish league have a similar anomaly. Still interesting.

 

My biggest shock is Zagar is so low, did well in the GPs, did well for BV. I assume he was a bit rubbish elsewhere?

 

His Polish team were crap and they weren't paying him.

[500cc]

Really well compiled list pretty much what you would expect. Pretty worrying from a British point of view though

Although from an Elite League standpoint its interesting. More than half of the top 30 rode in the UK this year and two thirds in the last two seasons.

[waiheke1]

THJ rides for Gdansk in the 2nd Polish division.. He's top of the averages in that league.

If I get time I’ll update to reflect Polish first division performances, though don’t think it will result in major changes – THJ I imagine would move into the top 50, Danny King probably drop out of top 30. I’ll also try to reflect performances in national individual championships as well, though prob just for the major nations (Denmark, Sweden, England, Poland).

 

Id say it's pretty spot on, this kind of thing will always have anomalies and it'll always be difficult to fully work out as how do you decide weightings for each league/competition? As lets be honest, a heat 15 in an EL meeting is harder than if you're riding at number 4 and don't get a heat 15 and I'm sure the Polish/Swedish league have a similar anomaly. Still interesting.

 

Absolutely agreed. I’m reasonably happy with the basic weighting I did, but it was also done within the constraints of limited time. Obviously some competitions are tougher for top riders to score in but easier for weaker riders (SWC is an example). Similarly EL the ideal weighting system would have reflected the number of heat 15 riders a rider took, and also number of heat 2s. If this information was readily available I could have reflected it in the rankings, but as it is I spent enough time on the EL as the lazy bugger who hosts the only site (that I am aware of) that contains the EL averages for current year stopped updating it in July, so I had to manually calculate the rest of the season. Consequently riders who were in the top two of their team in the EL are probably slightly disadvantaged, those such as Smolinski/Hougarrd who had spells at reserve are favoured. That said, I don’t think adjusting for this this would have made any major changes to the top 30.

 

 

My biggest shock is Zagar is so low, did well in the GPs, did well for BV. I assume he was a bit rubbish elsewhere?

His Polish team were crap and they weren't paying him.

 

On the contrary, Zagar’s performance in Poland actually was better than his performance in the EL (when weighted). It was his poor performance in Sweden (where he averaged only 6.4) that really brought down his score.

I too was a little surprised at Zagar’s ranking, hich is lower than one would intuitively expect, but a quick look at those who leapfrogged him from his GP position of 7^th. Holder and Ward clearly no surprise, and G Laguta as the best rider outside the series is probably no surprise to see higher either.

( 6^th best performer in the leagues and runner up in SEC )

Gollob ranked fractionally behind Zagar in the GPs, but Zagar’s poor Swedish performance saw Gollob achieve a slightly higher league “score” and his performances in Sec further boosted his score. Miedzinski league rating was also a little higher than Zagar , and his one win from one attempt in GPs saw him have a fractionally higher GP score also. Bjerre was probably the big surprise, but his SWC performance earned him a high rating, as did his SGP Challenge performance (had Zagar ridden in the Challenge final and scored well he would have ranked higher than Bjerre).

Depending on the assumptions used in the ranking system, Zagar could have easily rated above the latter three under a different system

[waiheke1]

Final list for the 2013 season, reflects the final EL meetings (inc ELRC), and also added the major national indivdual championships (Poland, England, Sweden, Australia, Denmark). No major changes to the above list, though NKI overtakes Emil and Janusz jumps a number of places due to his peformance in the Polish final. Andreas Jonsson ranked 35th, Chris Harris 36th.

 

1 Jaroslaw Hampel 10.73

2 Tai Woffinden 10.73

3 Niels K Iversen 10.43

4 Emil Sayfutdinon 10.36

5 Darcy Ward 10.09

6 Chris Holder 9.65

7 Nicki Pedersen 9.43

8 Greg Hancock 9.22

9 Grigorij Laguta 8.62

10 Adrian Miedzinski 8.33

11 Tomasz Gollob 8.31

12 Janusz KOŁODZIEJ 8.20

13 Matej Zagar 7.97

14 Patryk Dudek 7.95

15 Kenneth Bjerre 7.90

16 Piotr Protasiewicz 7.86

17 Maciej Janowski 7.63

18 Michael Jepsen Jepsen 7.56

19 Krzysztof Kasprzak 7.55

20 Grzegorz WALASEK 7.48

21 Artem Laguta 7.46

22 Troy Batchelor 7.44

23 Piotr PAWLICKI 7.28

24 Hans Andersen 7.20

25 Martin Smolinski 7.09

26 Peter Karlsson 6.89

27 Przemyslaw Pawlicki 6.81

28 Danny King 6.76

29 Fredrik Lindgren 6.65

30 Alexander LOKTAEV 6.51

[PolskiZuzel]

THJ rides for Gdansk in the 2nd Polish division.. He's top of the averages in that league.

 

Gdansk, at the end of this season (2013) won Polish League ONE and as a result gained promotion to the Polish top flight division, i.e. Polish Speedway ExtraLeague

[waiheke1]

in answer to a question from MP on a different thread, an explanation on basic calculation method I used.

 

For weightings of different events I used the following: GP weighted 40%, league speedway 20%, SWC/SEC/SGP qualifiers 10% each, junior world champ 7.5%, national champs 2.5%. Riders calculations based on only events they took part in (so someone not riding in the SC and world under 21 champs would have their weighted score divided by .925). However, riders also had a % deduction from overall score based on number of events not participated in.

I did the calc for around the top 70 riders in the world, I’m pretty confident I didn’t miss anyone with a genuine claim to be in the top 30.

Weighting between different events was the most problematic area, for this I used the scores of the top 15-20 riders in a given completion, which means the rankings are a more accurate reflection for comparison purposes of the top riders than the weaker riders (which is consistent ith my intention to establish and rank the top 20-30 riders in the world, not rank those 50-70^th).