barrow boy Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 thanks You are very welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwatcher Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at the Visa thread it now looks that Doyle has now got a 90% chance of getting his visa. Even so it would be nice to just see a few manes coming on the Lions web site, for the final rider. At this rate we will be getting a NL league no 7 as thyat will be all there is to chose from. Come on lets get the last name and make this years team a team to be proud of. Not perhaps thetop team in the league, but the team should have a fighting chance. As most of the others seem to be a bit short of the top riders they had in previous years because of the drop in the points total. I see the Lions up there in at least the top 6 or 7 places if not even better. Just hope so it would be great if they made a good job of this first year. Hurry up and make all Lions fans happy with the right choice. Looking forward to the new season. Hope you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Turner Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Pesky Lions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyE Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at the Visa thread it now looks that Doyle has now got a 90% chance of getting his visa. Even so it would be nice to just see a few manes coming on the Lions web site, for the final rider. At this rate we will be getting a NL league no 7 as thyat will be all there is to chose from. Come on lets get the last name and make this years team a team to be proud of. Not perhaps thetop team in the league, but the team should have a fighting chance. As most of the others seem to be a bit short of the top riders they had in previous years because of the drop in the points total. I see the Lions up there in at least the top 6 or 7 places if not even better. Just hope so it would be great if they made a good job of this first year. Hurry up and make all Lions fans happy with the right choice. Looking forward to the new season. Hope you are. You obviously have 'Lions' very much in mind! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Al Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at the Visa thread it now looks that Doyle has now got a 90% chance of getting his visa. Even so it would be nice to just see a few manes coming on the Lions web site, for the final rider. At this rate we will be getting a NL league no 7 as thyat will be all there is to chose from. Come on lets get the last name and make this years team a team to be proud of. Not perhaps thetop team in the league, but the team should have a fighting chance. As most of the others seem to be a bit short of the top riders they had in previous years because of the drop in the points total. I see the Lions up there in at least the top 6 or 7 places if not even better. Just hope so it would be great if they made a good job of this first year. Hurry up and make all Lions fans happy with the right choice. Looking forward to the new season. Hope you are. 90% ?? The figures provided by UKBA on success rates of applications for the most recent 12-month period for which they have statistics, shows over 36,000 tier 5 applications were made, and just over 8,000 of them were successful. Of course this covers the whole tier 5 spectrum of worker categories, and it could be that the sportsperson applications have had a higher success rate than the others but I'd be surprised if if it were 90%. I do think that Doyle's application, however, could have a better chance of success than average. And who knows what went on at the reported recent meeting between BSPA and UKBA which although was meant to have been general discussions about avoiding future problems, might just have also included some attention to present problems?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Most current 10 league and playoffs matches for Birmingham includes all away matches in that period so it represents his overall home and away form.Inc or exc bonus points? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Lion Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at the Visa thread it now looks that Doyle has now got a 90% chance of getting his visa. Even so it would be nice to just see a few manes coming on the Lions web site, for the final rider. At this rate we will be getting a NL league no 7 as thyat will be all there is to chose from. Come on lets get the last name and make this years team a team to be proud of. Not perhaps thetop team in the league, but the team should have a fighting chance. As most of the others seem to be a bit short of the top riders they had in previous years because of the drop in the points total. I see the Lions up there in at least the top 6 or 7 places if not even better. Just hope so it would be great if they made a good job of this first year. Hurry up and make all Lions fans happy with the right choice. Looking forward to the new season. Hope you are. The chance of getting a visa is either 100% or nil. The results of other peoples' applications have no bearing on the outcome of Doyle's. He will either get a visa or he will not. You can't have 90% of a visa! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrow boy Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Inc or exc bonus points? Without. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Al Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 The chance of getting a visa is either 100% or nil. The results of other peoples' applications have no bearing on the outcome of Doyle's. He will either get a visa or he will not. You can't have 90% of a visa! Well I suppose you can't legislate for the possibility of someone making a mess of the application itself and having it rejected before even being considered - which probably accounts for a fair number of rejections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballroom Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 will no premier league help or hinder Jason with the lions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 The chance of getting a visa is either 100% or nil. The results of other peoples' applications have no bearing on the outcome of Doyle's. He will either get a visa or he will not. You can't have 90% of a visa!You obviously have no understanding of the concept of probability if that is what u think.Acvording to your logic, my chance of winning the lottery is the same as it is of flipping a head on a single coin toss (it will either happen or not happen). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Lion Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 You obviously have no understanding of the concept of probability if that is what u think. Acvording to your logic, my chance of winning the lottery is the same as it is of flipping a head on a single coin toss (it will either happen or not happen). Oh dear. The lottery is purely random and each ball has a certain chance, or probability, of being drawn. The granting of a visa is nothing to do with probability. A visitor applies for a visa. If they satisify the conditions they are granted it. If they don't satisfy the conditions they are not granted it. The officials decide whether the conditions are met. If you seriously believe the officials apply some kind of random element when deciding to grant a visa there is little point in trying to explain this fundamental difference any further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMW Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Blimey the start of the season can't come soon enough if you ask me. Now we are squabbling over probabilities !!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Oh dear. The lottery is purely random and each ball has a certain chance, or probability, of being drawn. The granting of a visa is nothing to do with probability. A visitor applies for a visa. If they satisify the conditions they are granted it. If they don't satisfy the conditions they are not granted it. The officials decide whether the conditions are met. If you seriously believe the officials apply some kind of random element when deciding to grant a visa there is little point in trying to explain this fundamental difference any further.Why did u state that u cant get 90% of a visa, which has nothing to do with probability? That seemed to indicate confusing likelihood of an event occurring (probability) for the percentage of sn event which occurs.Probability is not confined purely to random elements, but im sure you know that, right? Do you really believe there is no interpretation required as to whethet someone is eligible for a visa? For someone to say that based on known info, doyle has a 90% chance of being granted a visa seems totally I reasonsble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Lion Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Why did u state that u cant get 90% of a visa, which has nothing to do with probability? That seemed to indicate confusing likelihood of an event occurring (probability) for the percentage of sn event which occurs. Probability is not confined purely to random elements, but im sure you know that, right? Do you really believe there is no interpretation required as to whethet someone is eligible for a visa? For someone to say that based on known info, doyle has a 90% chance of being granted a visa seems totally I reasonsble. Er, because you can't get 90% of a visa. It was a flippant remark in response to Weatherwatcher's assertion that Doyle has a 90% chance of getting one. You're confusing success rates with probability. They are not the same. Ninety percent of applicants may be successful (I don't know about the accuracy of that figure, but it's the one that has been quoted), but it doesn't mean any particular applicant has a 90% chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Al Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Er, because you can't get 90% of a visa. It was a flippant remark in response to Weatherwatcher's assertion that Doyle has a 90% chance of getting one. You're confusing success rates with probability. They are not the same. Ninety percent of applicants may be successful (I don't know about the accuracy of that figure, but it's the one that has been quoted), but it doesn't mean any particular applicant has a 90% chance. Spot on! Probability is associated with random-ness. Success rate (in this case anyway) includes the need to meet criteria. I will change my word "chance" to "rate of success". Many thanks and hope this is now finished and we can all go any have a good drink! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lionstigersnotbearsohmy Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't suppose anybody knows the probability of any meaningful track changes having taken place before the season starts?.... ;-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waiheke1 Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Er, because you can't get 90% of a visa. It was a flippant remark in response to Weatherwatcher's assertion that Doyle has a 90% chance of getting one. You're confusing success rates with probability. They are not the same. Ninety percent of applicants may be successful (I don't know about the accuracy of that figure, but it's the one that has been quoted), but it doesn't mean any particular applicant has a 90% chance. Ok it was a fkippant comment, but the same applies to almost anything (eg you can't throw 50% of a head when flipping a coin).Quite awsre of the difference berween success rates and probability, and presumably doyles probability of getting a visa is higher than the generic success rate, which I think was mentionef somewhere on this thread. Probability is not exclusively linked with rsndom events, although events such as flipping a coin you can calculate probability as opposed to estimating probability, as weatherwatcher did. I fundamentally disagree thst doyles chance is either zero or 100, just asI do with those on here who state that where there are two posdible outcomes the chance of either is 50%. Anyway I think thats wasted enough of the Leicester thread! Any views on probability of them finishing bottom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wandersome Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 (edited) Don't suppose anybody knows the probability of any meaningful track changes having taken place before the season starts?.... ;-) On the basis that i trully believe DH thinks the track produced some of the best racing in the UK last year and he told me that the quality of racing for the Cov challenge match vindicated his decision in ignoring pretty much everyone's opinion and sticking with his unique track shape i think it's not happening. No amount of laughing at it by pretty much everyone appears to change his opinion on this, in fact it almost appears to harden his resolve. So my guess is no changes will happen before the season starts. to sum up i think that's about a 90% chance, isn't it?... Mick. Edited February 10, 2014 by volty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCB Posted February 9, 2014 Report Share Posted February 9, 2014 Regarding Doyles last 10 EL meetings, I make it 9.04 with bonus and 8.61 without. Thats EL and play-offs. Home and away but it could be 2 home and 8 away or vice versa! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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