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Time For A Rethink In Rolling Averages?


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i'm trying to explain in layman's terms so people can understand the principles involved, i'll leave the formulae till later, generally speaking more data points improve the average calculated but too many make the average very slow to follow form. It's a balancing act to get it right, rather than picking a seemingly arbitrary number someone should have modelled 2 or 3 years worth of green sheet data into some test case models to see what sample size looked good.

 

no system is perfect ,,,,,,,,,but explain ra's to the masses because the "38" is spread over an indeterminate period maybe over 2 years. In pl this year lc groups had different number of fixtures sure play offs koc, are not included but are lcsf's surely not? If i'm right a LC southern group team will only have 32 while a Northern group 34 which distorts again.

 

Averages points divided by rides = ??? simple to understand ................but as we all know not perfect!!

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the competitions if comparable in standard don't matter, a LC opponent is built to same rules as a PL opponent so for the purpose of averages PL,KOC,LC,Playoffs are no different to each other.

 

the only thing it changes the speed at which 1 team may gain a RA for a rider.

 

the 2 year spread is a red herring, if a rider takes time out it was not uncommon for GS averages from 2 or more seasons ago to be used under the old system.

Edited by Dekker
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