Speedway Gp 2012 - Season So Far

[waiheke1]

Ok, 2012 GP season has been, IMHO, excellent so far. The racing has been good to excellent, the NZ GP and Leszno standing out, but the racing in Prague and Gothenburg also much better than previous years. And it looks like being one of the most open title races in years, with 6 riders still very much in the hunt for the crown.

 

The old brigade:

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the 4 world champions in the field have figured prominently again, all making at least the semis at every event.

Nicki Pedersen currently leads the standings, and is arguably riding the best of any of the field at present. Gollob has at times looked superb, and when riding well has looked better than any other rider, BUT he has also been the least consistent of these riders, dropping points when least expected, arguably because he is the worst gater of the four of them. Crump and Hancock have both looked good without finding top gear yet. It’s hard to see past one of those four being crowned world champion again

 

Hampel: Was my tip to win it this year, after finishing on the podium and being outstanding domestically the last couple of years (I was thinking shades of Hans Nielsen, not that I believe he is close to being as good as Hans). But has been disappointing so far, and even domestically not riding as well as the last couple of seasons. That said, he’s only 12 points of top, one good meeting could see him atop the leaderboard.

 

The young Brigade:

I thought at the start of the year one of Holder and Emil ould make the podium this year, but its looking like I picked the wrong one! Emil is my favourite rider to watch BUT unless his gating improves he won’t make the top3 this season. I expect watching Emil is like watching a young Peter Collins – you get the feeling that they won’t win as many world titles as their talent deserves because they can’t bloody gate! Holder had a disappointing NZ GP, perhaps distracted by the birth of his son, but since then has racked up more points than any other rider in the last 3 GPs. I’m expecting him to be the only new face on the podium come end of the season.

 

The Swedes:

All three sitting between 7^th-`10^th very much a “middling”performance so far, and I can only see one of them making the top 8 this year.

Jonsson has probably been the biggest disapointment so far, two good meetings and two terrible ones. That said, I’d still expect him to be top Sweede this year, but hishopes of repeating last year’s finish are already looking gone. Lindgren has been consistent in every meeting either scraping into the top8, or finishing just outside. The Swedish GP looked like following that pattern, but two excellent rides saw him take out the title. Perhaps that will kick start hi sseason, but I can see him finishing 9^th, which would likely be enough to earn him a WC for next season. Lindback looked very good indeed in Auckland, but has been disappointing since. Until the last round I was expecting him to finish the series ahead of Lindgren, my view on that has reversed, and his domestic form has also been poor.

 

The Danes:

Have been mediocre at best, although not much was expected of Hans or Bjarne anyway. It’s hard to see any of them making the top8 at present, and nor does it seem likely any will be offered a WC for next year if they miss out – possibly Bjerre if his form picks up in the rest of the season, though with the quality of the Danes outside the series, it seems likely it would be offered to a “fresh face.” The Danes really need a good performance on their home soil this weekend if they are to have a realistic chance of catching the top 8.

 

The rest:

Harris has been frankly atrocious, even by his usual slow starting (in both senses of the word) GP form. He’s been slow from the gate, machinery poor, and hasn’t been picking people off from the back. It’s very hard to see him being offerred a WC next season, that surely will go to Tai (who will hopefully accept – tbh I think he’s unlikely to make the top 3 in the Challenge, but perhaps if his qualifying is hindered by injury he will re-think his earlier statement about turning down a WC). Peter Ljung is in some ways the opposite of Harris, as his gating at least is excellent – if Speedway was run over 1 lap I have no doubts he would be top 8. The problem is that he probably gates on average at least second, but finishes on average 3^rd – going backwards as races go on.

 

So, my picks at this stage:

1^st Nicki Pedersen 2^nd Holder 3^rd Crump

Rest of the top 8: Hancock, Hampel, Gollob, Emil, Jonsson

Outside: Lindgren, Lindback, Bjerre, Andersen, Pedersen, Ljung, Harris

 

(Note: a glance at the table on the SGP predictions thread will show that thes epredictions are likely to be very wrong!)

 

For next year:

Based on current form I can see one Swede (Lindgren), one Dane (NKI) and one Brit (Tai) being offered spots for next season, with the other place going to Darcy (if he should fail to qualify). If any of the above should make it through the challenge, I could see places going to Lindback/THJ for Sweden, or Bjerre/one of the youngsters for the Danes. If Darcy or Tai qualify, prime candidates for the WC spots would be any of the young Poles (perhaps Dudek or a Pawlicki) or G Laguta.

 

My Favourites to qualify through the challenge at this point would be Ward, G Laguta and NKI in my view, though history would suggest at least one “surprise” packet.

But in an ideal world next year’s line up could look something like N Pedersen, Holder, Crump , Hancock, Hampel, Gollob, Emil, Jonsson, Lindgren, NKI, Tai, Ward, G Laguta, Dudek, and any one of Bjerre/Lindback/Pawlicki/THJ/ which I think is a pretty tasty looking line up.