Rolling Averages

[Gambo]

There have been a couple of enquiries on different topics in the EL Section about Rolling Averages and so in case I've missed any similar in the PL Section, below is a brief explanation of how they are calculated.

 

Rolling Averages are calculated using two seasons results (2010 & 2011) to a maximum number of matches equal to the total League Matches for the current season.

(2011 EL=28 Matches/PL=38).

As the details of each 2011 Meeting are added, the race details from corresponding meeting in 2010 are automatically discounted from the calculations.

If a rider completed 29/39 or more matches in 2010, the Spreadsheet automatically only uses the last 28/38 meetings from 2010 for calculations.

If a rider completed less than 28/38 matches in 2010, then all of the 2010 figures will be used up until the total number of matches (2010 + 2011) exceeds 28/38.

 

Riders on Assessed/Converted averages will maintain that average until they have completed 4H & 4A. All other riders' Rolling Averages will be effective no matter how many matches they have ridden this year with the usual 23rd of the Month cut-off date. The first revised Green Sheets are due to take effect on May 1st.

 

By the end of the season, a rider who completes 28/38 matches in 2011 will have a Rolling Average that would consist of just his 2011 scores.

 

ATB

 

Dave

[Daniel Smith]

I must of missed this conversation, so are the EL & PL using this system??????

[Gambo]

I must of missed this conversation, so are the EL & PL using this system??????

 

In a word....

Yes!

 

ATB

 

Dave

[MattK]

What happens to riders who achieved their average before 2010?

[Gambo]

What happens to riders who achieved their average before 2010?

This scenario was not mentioned in discussions (in hindsight maybe it should have been?)

As only 2010 and 2011 results count for RA's those riders are considered to be Assessed so, for example, Nicki Pedersen will stay on his previous average until he has done 4H & 4A this season.

 

ATB

 

Dave

[Islander15]

Do you know if this applies to the National League as well??

 

I must admit this does seem rather stupid. What was wrong with the current system? As someone could have a great year this year but just because they struggled last year, maybe with injuries, they will get to stay at reserve longer (Adam Roynon, Lewis Bridger...).

[Gambo]

Do you know if this applies to the National League as well??

 

I must admit this does seem rather stupid. What was wrong with the current system? As someone could have a great year this year but just because they struggled last year, maybe with injuries, they will get to stay at reserve longer (Adam Roynon, Lewis Bridger...).

 

I can't say for certain, but I wouldn't think it would apply to NL, and I think it is Peter Morrish who does the NL averages.

I think the main idea of Rolling Averages is to lessen all the fluctuations that occur at the beginning of a season.

As you say it may benefit those who struggled last year, but equally, anyone who is struggling this year is not likely to drop down to reserve so easily/quickly.

 

ATB

 

Dave

[Islander15]

I can't say for certain, but I wouldn't think it would apply to NL, and I think it is Peter Morrish who does the NL averages.

I think the main idea of Rolling Averages is to lessen all the fluctuations that occur at the beginning of a season.

As you say it may benefit those who struggled last year, but equally, anyone who is struggling this year is not likely to drop down to reserve so easily/quickly.

 

ATB

 

Dave

 

Thanks for your reply.

Surely one of the points of having averages changing during the season is so that someone who is struggling for whatever reason can drop down to reserve for a month to get a confidence booster. I know sometimes that seriously strengthens a side without them even having made a change, but at the end of the day that rider must have been doing something wrong (not neccesarily his own fault though) for him to end up at reserve anyway.

 

I just can't see what was wrong with last year's system?? Yet again promoters seemed to have changed the rules for 'changing the rules sake'.

[Daniel Smith]

Will there be anywhere us fans can keep up to date on these rolling averages?????

[Gambo]

Will there be anywhere us fans can keep up to date on these rolling averages?????

 

I would expect the BSPA site to have the RA Green Sheets posted on their site sometime after each cut-off date. (23rd of each Month)

Sites managed by AP Media (Andy Povey) will have them updated regularly after each match as will the Coventry website, courtesy of KanDysoft.

 

 

ATB

 

Dave

[Baldy]

I use rolling averages in the manufacturing world...yes our Isles still has a manufacuring industry.but only just. The way to get any value out of them is if your sample period is correct; too long or short and it losses track of the reason you use them; that is to get as close an idea as where you are in your current situation; or in speedway's case; as close to the true riding ability and scoring potential of the rider in question. So what is the right sample period?. I, in my humble work place use the 1/4 rule, that is 52 weeks in a year so the past 13 weeks are used. In speedways case if a rider has a potential 40 meetings a year then the last ten meetings used. I know you have the problem of home away fixtures and riders getting injured but looking at the two years they are using; it is way too long and will not work. A rolling average should change with every meeting rode, not wait until certain dates because then it no longer is a true rolling average.

Edited April 14, 2011 by Steeplejack

[Gambo]

To see how Rolling Averages have a 'smoothing' effect on averages go to http://www.kandysoft.com/averages/gs.htm

 

Rolling Averages give Coventry a team total of 44.1 whereas after one EL Match the 2010 Green Sheet calculations would have given Coventry an average of 51.2!

Note that Larsen, Fisher & Morris will retain their 2010 average until they have completed 4H & 4A EL matches.

 

ATB

 

Dave

[BWitcher]

To see how Rolling Averages have a 'smoothing' effect on averages go to http://www.kandysoft.com/averages/gs.htm

 

Rolling Averages give Coventry a team total of 44.1 whereas after one EL Match the 2010 Green Sheet calculations would have given Coventry an average of 51.2!

Note that Larsen, Fisher & Morris will retain their 2010 average until they have completed 4H & 4A EL matches.

 

ATB

 

Dave

 

Thanks Dave for this information.

 

However, the very existence of this thread accentuates what I have been saying all winter. The BSPA has no respect whatsoever for its customers. It is mind bogglingly PATHETIC that the BSPA can't be bothered to officially release this information themselves.

 

For the few BSPA apologists, is there a legal embargo on this information as well??

Edited April 16, 2011 by BWitcher

[Hilly]

Thanks for your reply.

Surely one of the points of having averages changing during the season is so that someone who is struggling for whatever reason can drop down to reserve for a month to get a confidence booster. I know sometimes that seriously strengthens a side without them even having made a change, but at the end of the day that rider must have been doing something wrong (not neccesarily his own fault though) for him to end up at reserve anyway.

 

I just can't see what was wrong with last year's system?? Yet again promoters seemed to have changed the rules for 'changing the rules sake'.

Works both ways thou. A reserve making a good start gets an artifically high average could then be replaced by a "real" heat leader to strengthen the team. The rider who started at reserve finds himself with an average that makes him unattractive for any team to sign.

[T.N.T.]

Rolling Averages are calculated using two seasons results (2010 & 2011) to a maximum number of matches equal to the total League Matches for the current season.

 

(2011 EL=28 Matches/PL=38).

As the details of each 2011 Meeting are added, the race details from corresponding meeting in 2010 are automatically discounted from the calculations.

 

 

If a rider completed 29/39 or more matches in 2010, the Spreadsheet automatically only uses the last 28/38 meetings from 2010 for calculations.

 

 

If a rider completed less than 28/38 matches in 2010, then all of the 2010 figures will be used up until the total number of matches (2010 + 2011) exceeds 28/38.

 

 

Riders on Assessed/Converted averages will maintain that average until they have completed 4H & 4A. All other riders' Rolling Averages will be effective no matter how many matches they have ridden this year with the usual 23rd of the Month cut-off date.

 

The first revised Green Sheets are due to take effect on May 1st.

 

By the end of the season, a rider who completes 28/38 matches in 2011 will have a Rolling Average that would consist of just his 2011 scores.

 

 

Could you please clarify a few things regarding the rolling averages

 

 

"As the details of each 2011 Meeting are added, the race details from corresponding meeting in 2010 are automatically discounted from the calculations."

 

So what happens if TOM SMITH rode in all matches bar the away trip to EASTBOURNE last season. ... This season he has ridden in five matches already and then rides in the away match at Eastbourne. ... As he has no score from the previous season to be taken off, which scored does get taken off to include this new score ?

 

 

or as in the case of teams that have switched leagues, many wont have scores from the previous season at that track.

 

 

" If a rider completed less than 28/38 matches in 2010, then all of the 2010 figures will be used up until the total number of matches (2010 + 2011) exceeds 28/38."

 

 

So if JOHN BELL rides in 25 meetings the previous season, will he get a new average after 3 meetings this season ?

 

 

"Riders on Assessed/Converted averages will maintain that average until they have completed 4H & 4A. All other riders' Rolling Averages will be effective no matter how many matches they have ridden this year with the usual 23rd of the Month cut-off date."

 

1 - What happens if a rider has an assessed average this season but still rode in say 8 meetings last season (4 home and 4 away) .... Will these scores still count towards their new average or will it be the first 4 home and 4 away this season ?

 

 

2 - Will riders on Assessed or Covertred averages get new GSA's straight away (within 7 dayds of reaching 4 home 4 away) .... or have to wait for the following month ?

 

 

3 - Is there any reason why riders that have moved up or moved down wont have their scores from the previous season converted to be included this season ?

 

 

4 - If a rider was doubling up last season and rode in 10 matches for example ..... will these scores be included in their new average ? .... will they just count the first 4 home 4 away this season ? ..... What will be counted for a rider that doubled up last season but has moved up full time this season ?

 

 

5 - What scores are used if a rider switches leagues ? ..... will the scores in the one league be used along with the scores in the other league ?

 

 

 

 

 

There seems to be a few grey areas using this method as a rider could start on a 4.32 average, score 7 points in a meeting, but his average drops down as the meeting being taken off is a meeting he scored 11 points in the previous season .... so just trying to understand the ins and outs to this system.

 

 

Cheers

 

.

Edited April 24, 2011 by T.N.T.

[Gambo]

Could you please clarify a few things regarding the rolling averages

 

 

"As the details of each 2011 Meeting are added, the race details from corresponding meeting in 2010 are automatically discounted from the calculations."

 

So what happens if TOM SMITH rode in all matches bar the away trip to EASTBOURNE last season. ... This season he has ridden in five matches already and then rides in the away match at Eastbourne. ... As he has no score from the previous season to be taken off, which scored does get taken off to include this new score ?

 

By 'corresponding' I mean that when Tom Smith rides in his first meeting in 2011, his first meeting in 2010 drops out of the calculation.(Providing he had done at least 28 matches in 2010)

or as in the case of teams that have switched leagues, many wont have scores from the previous season at that track.

 

 

" If a rider completed less than 28/38 matches in 2010, then all of the 2010 figures will be used up until the total number of matches (2010 + 2011) exceeds 28/38."

 

 

So if JOHN BELL rides in 25 meetings the previous season, will he get a new average after 3 meetings this season ?

John Bell will get a new average on May 1st. If he has ridden no matches in 2011 it will still be his starting average. (25 matches from 2010) In his fourth match of 2011 the first match of 2010 will drop out of the calculations.

 

"Riders on Assessed/Converted averages will maintain that average until they have completed 4H & 4A. All other riders' Rolling Averages will be effective no matter how many matches they have ridden this year with the usual 23rd of the Month cut-off date."

 

1 - What happens if a rider has an assessed average this season but still rode in say 8 meetings last season (4 home and 4 away) .... Will these scores still count towards their new average or will it be the first 4 home and 4 away this season ?

If he rode 8 matches in that league last year, that would be his Rolling Average for this year, he would not be assessed. Only Riders changing Leagues (Or who did not ride 8 matches last year are on Assessed/Converted averages.)

 

2 - Will riders on Assessed or Covertred averages get new GSA's straight away (within 7 dayds of reaching 4 home 4 away) .... or have to wait for the following month ?

Yes

 

3 - Is there any reason why riders that have moved up or moved down wont have their scores from the previous season converted to be included this season ?

You can't convert meeting scores, it has to be points scored in that particular league.

 

 

4 - If a rider was doubling up last season and rode in 10 matches for example ..... will these scores be included in their new average ? .... will they just count the first 4 home 4 away this season ? ..... What will be counted for a rider that doubled up last season but has moved up full time this season ?

If he has a valid Average for that league (More than 7 matches) then that is the start of his Rolling Average for this year.

5 - What scores are used if a rider switches leagues ? ..... will the scores in the one league be used along with the scores in the other league ?

See answer to Q3

 

 

 

There seems to be a few grey areas using this method as a rider could start on a 4.32 average, score 7 points in a meeting, but his average drops down as the meeting being taken off is a meeting he scored 11 points in the previous season .... so just trying to understand the ins and outs to this system.

True, but over 28/38 matches it is not going to have as big an effect as a good (or bad) meeting in the early stages of the season. And at the end of the season, most riders will have an Average that reflects his 2011 performances only, as did Green Sheets in previous years.

Cheers

 

.

[T.N.T.]

Cheers for those answers Gambo, but just a few queries

 

 

"If he rode 8 matches in that league last year, that would be his Rolling Average for this year, he would not be assessed. Only Riders changing Leagues (Or who did not ride 8 matches last year are on Assessed/Converted averages.)"

 

 

So what is the ruling over Pawlicki ? .... He did 11 matches last season bjut still has an assessed average !

 

 

Will he get a new average when he has done 28 meetings altogether ... or 4 home and 4 away this season ? (as he did that last season)

 

 

 

How many meetings do riders that have switched leagues have to ride to get new averages ? .... riders like Ryan Fisher, Oliver Allen, Ricky Wells etc

 

 

also riders that doubled up, if they rode a few meetings, will those matches count if they step up ? ... like Joe Haines ?

Edited April 25, 2011 by T.N.T.

[Gambo]

Cheers for those answers Gambo, but just a few queries

 

 

"If he rode 8 matches in that league last year, that would be his Rolling Average for this year, he would not be assessed. Only Riders changing Leagues (Or who did not ride 8 matches last year are on Assessed/Converted averages.)"

 

 

So what is the ruling over Pawlicki ? .... He did 11 matches last season bjut still has an assessed average !

 

 

Will he get a new average when he has done 28 meetings altogether ... or 4 home and 4 away this season ? (as he did that last season)

 

As far as I understand it, Pawlicki started with an 11 match RA which is now a 14 match RA (11 + 3 EL Matches this season)

His 5.00 assessed average seems to be part of the deal struck between Coventry & the BSPA.

 

How many meetings do riders that have switched leagues have to ride to get new averages ? .... riders like Ryan Fisher, Oliver Allen, Ricky Wells etc

You answered that yourself in Question 2 of your previous post! 4H & 4A!!

also riders that doubled up, if they rode a few meetings, will those matches count if they step up ? ... like Joe Haines ?

As I said before..............If they have a valid (8 or more matches) average for that league then that is the RA the start with!

[TrueBee]

If a rider has an official rolling average, does their average get updated in real time i.e. After each meeting. Or will the new averages be given on a monthly basis?

 

Thanks.

[SCB]

I notice on the BSPA site that Pawlicki will be given an average on the 1st of May but thats wrong.

 

17.4.4 A Rider starting the season with an Assessed CMA will have a new Established CMA upon completing 4 Home and 4 Away fixtures, which becomes effective 7 days after the last qualifying Meeting. Should this not be achieved in order to be effective from 1st May, then the MC will issue a revised CMA.

Shamek started the season on an assesed average, so fit into the criteria above. If the rules said that meetings last eyar counted too, then he'd have an average but the rules clearly state anyone on an assessed average only gets an average when he completes 4 home and 4 away and Shamek has NOT completed 4 home and 4 away.