westo97 Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 After months of bitching and arguing about the joke side of speedwayHow about we look ahead to the serious and more professional side of the sport with next years GP Series. I personally belive their may be some value around next year.Im interested to see what value others think their could be to win the World Championship. Firstly,as people very often get the wrong end of the stick on this forum,I just want to explain the angle I am coming from to avoid confusion. I am referring where the value lies in the 2011 season with the view of having a bet on somebody to be World Champion. Im explaining this as I can already foresee some of the responses by some on here! Approx Prices for 2011 Season J Crump 2/1 - Personally have Crump as favourite as I believe he is a more hungry rider when chasing a title,as opposed to defending title.Mentally the strongest and most tactically versatile rider in the field who has proven track record and has to start as favourite. Personally, I dont find likely price of between 2 and 3/1 value. T Gollob 5/2 - Be interesting to see if being World No 1 affects his hunger in 2011. I am inclined to think not but I think his biggest problem in 2011 could be having the gold target on his back and I dont expect riders to be brushed aside by some of Gollob's antics as easily as they have in the past. From a value perspective,again I would personally look elsewhere with the GP field being as strong in 2011 as it has been in a long time. E Sayfutdinov 9/2 - Ability to be World Champion not in doubt. However, has questions marks over experience over a long season and erratic incidents he gets involved with a times could prove costly.The Russian could miss key GP's to injury again and I believe his age and over eagerness will count against him ,also that surprice factor he had during his debut season has now well and truly disappeared.I believe very likely to make enemies who will relish opportunity to take points from him over the season.For these reasons I believe he is underpriced N Pedersen 10/1 - Been there and done it more than once but has questions to answer in 2011.Arguably, he has been unlucky in the last two years as certain decisions seem to of gone against him.However, im starting to come to conclusion that riders no longer fear him and are happy to give him some of the medicine he dished out in previous years.Whilst the ability is there,I could not back him if around the price I suspect he will be. J Hampel 10/1 to 12/1 - Made great strides last season and carried my money for the World Championship as was overpriced all season.Looked very fast and seemed to add an extra dimension to his riding from behind in 2010.Now approaching the general age of when riders step up to be capable of winning the World Title since introduction of GP Series. Could not of been easy playing second fiddle to Gollob last year and Gollob getting that monkey of his back could have positive implications for Hampel too in 2011. I expect another good year from him but I fear bookies are more aware of his ability now and the value may of gone. K Bjerre 16/1 - Personally, I believe this is where the E/W value is for 2011.Improved year on year and he has changed my initial opinion of 2-3 years ago that he was a gater only.Has great skill on a motorbike and second only to Gollob for getting his wheels in line coming out of the second bend to create advantageous situations for himself. Super fast gater who can win large percentage of his races from the front,whilst bookies are familiar with him,I suspect they may not be fully aware of his potential and ability at this level.I feel he can challenge all the way next season and be a real force. The negatives would be his age at this level,still inexperienced and will have to outperform a stat that suggests World Champions start to peak from the age of 28 in GP Series.Also, being away from Peterborough is probably not an advantage but could be a blessing in disguise and allow him more focus on GP Series. R Holta 22/1 - Another rider who I believe is still improving,despite his age suggesting differently. Very fast rider who has a mixture of everything required to be World Champion,except probably key ingredient of consistency.Will beat anyone and be a spoiler in the series and I think the value with Holta is likely to be backing to win GP's rather than the World Championship. G Hancock 25/1 - Great rider who again I believe has got better with age.Probably a better rider now than when he won his world title back in the nineties.At his age now,I would doubt if he will really turn the screw and get aggressive enough to sustain a challenge for the title and would be against him for these reasons.If a big price of 33s + could be Each Way value for a top 3 finish though. F Lindgren 40/1 - Fantastic rider who is often overpriced to win a GP and would be worth backing at often prices of 40/1 plus.However,something does not seem to of quite clicked at this level for some reason. I have expressed personal view that he does not have enough of a challenge week in week out riding for Wolverhampton,I feel this holds back his progression but without a doubt the ability is there.Worth backing in every GP for glory at the prices but not over the full season. C Harris 40/1 - Made great improvements last season and one of the most entertaining riders in the field.His gating has improved dramatically but still short compared to others in the field.Generally lacks the consistency to push for a world title but could improve further next year.Potentially missing out on British Speedway may not be the advantage it has been for others in the past though. C Holder 50/1 - I know many will be surprised by the price I have entered here.Its not that I dont believe the ability is there cos it clearly is and I see him as a future World Champion.But I do firmly believe he will be underpriced at around 20s when I think he should be around 50s. He is still very inexperienced at this level and can often make mistakes through over trying. A common mistake I noticed last season was over aggression into the first bend which led to him drifitng far too wide and finding himslef at the back of the race. He will stamp out these errors in time and can win from the front or behind but I stand by my view he will be underpriced throughout the season. Of the others I can see no continuous challenge throughout the season.The likes of Jonsson and Kolodziej will cause surprises and could win individual GP's but unlikely to challenge througout. Summary Back K Bjerre Each Way for World Title at any price above 16/1 Back R Holta Each Way if overpriced by bookies at 25/1 + Back F Lindgren to win individual GP's at around 33/1 + Remember this is based on value prices and where the value lies.Not J Crump is the best so just back him type mentality. Think outside the box and all views and opinions welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Shovlar Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 I personally think Holder will be top 4/5 in 2011. Odds of around 12-16/1. Not ready to win it yet but give him 3 more seasons and he will be there or thereabouts. Certaily on a par with Emil. Kolodziej has very fast bikes. I expect him to suprise many and will be in in a few A finals. Saifutdinov will chalenge no doubt but again not ready to go the whole way yet. Out with the old and in with the new. the days of Crump and Gollob are waining. Nicki P hasn't got back his form of a few seasons ago. Hancock has done well to last so long but will be a shadow of what he was IMO. Hampel and Lindgren will be in the mix. I reckon we will have a first time World Champion in 2011. In a couple more years time we will see the old guard swept completely away. Ward will be in it as well to stir things up. Going to see some great GPs with Holder, Ward, Emil, Kolodziej and Lindgren battling it out, Shame there's no Brit on the horizon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westo97 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 I personally think Holder will be top 4/5 in 2011. Odds of around 12-16/1. Not ready to win it yet but give him 3 more seasons and he will be there or thereabouts. Certaily on a par with Emil. Kolodziej has very fast bikes. I expect him to suprise many and will be in in a few A finals. Saifutdinov will chalenge no doubt but again not ready to go the whole way yet. Out with the old and in with the new. the days of Crump and Gollob are waining. Nicki P hasn't got back his form of a few seasons ago. Hancock has done well to last so long but will be a shadow of what he was IMO. Hampel and Lindgren will be in the mix. I reckon we will have a first time World Champion in 2011. In a couple more years time we will see the old guard swept completely away. Ward will be in it as well to stir things up. Going to see some great GPs with Holder, Ward, Emil, Kolodziej and Lindgren battling it out, Shame there's no Brit on the horizon. Agree with nearly everything you say.Think it may be a year too early for Holder top 4/5 but it would not surprise me. I still think he will be underpriced for the title though and represents no value at anything under 33s ,even for each way top 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hans fan Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 odds are already out with hills and unibet westo look on oddschecker the mad russian at 8s don't look bad value,nitronicki at 12s e-way for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westo97 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 odds are already out with hills and unibet westo look on oddschecker the mad russian at 8s don't look bad value,nitronicki at 12s e-way for me Didnt realise prices out as mainly bet with bet 365 If Emil is 8s though then he comes into equation as I thought he would be shorter than that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hans fan Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Didnt realise prices out as mainly bet with bet 365 If Emil is 8s though then he comes into equation as I thought he would be shorter than that so you'll be happy to take 5s grumpy crumpie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westo97 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 so you'll be happy to take 5s grumpy crumpie Definately will.Not a big fan of him but he is the only rider in the field who can pace himself well.He can ride half the season at 75% and peak at the right time when required. Plus his record when chasing a title is far better than defending.I think 5/1 is pretty massive to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The White Knight Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Grand??? Prix Speedway!! The WINNER is World Champion - what a JOKE!! MOST Speedway Riders never get a chance to ride in it. Ohh!!! I forgot - unless you are SELECTED of course. How can you call yourself World Champion with MOST Speedway Riders excluded from the Competition. Seems plain bloody DAFT to me. Just my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHILIPRISING Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 HOW can Sebastian Vettel call himself World Champion ... I drive a car but wasn't allowed to compete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The White Knight Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) HOW can Sebastian Vettel call himself World Champion ... I drive a car but wasn't allowed to compete. Yes - but you are not a Formula One Driver. In my Post - I DID Stress Riders. I implied Speedway Riders as this IS a Speedway Forum after all. Ooops - I DID say Speedway Riders. We meet again Philip. Greetings - I hope I can say - my friend Edited January 25, 2011 by The White Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHILIPRISING Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 OF course White Knight ... whoever you are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trees Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 How can you call yourself World Champion with MOST Speedway Riders excluded from the Competition. It's the nature of the commercial beast White Knight. Where's Bryn, he feels the same as you. I'm surprised that you were confused by what 'The White Knight' posted Mr Rising!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squall Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shame there's no Brit on the horizon. There would be if Woffinden rode for Poole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Shovlar Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 (edited) There would be if Woffinden rode for Poole IMO what I have seen of Tai he is not GP material or close to it yet. Edited January 25, 2011 by Steve Shovlar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatDave Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 Crumpy is fit and focussed - it'd take a brave man to bet against him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryW Posted January 25, 2011 Report Share Posted January 25, 2011 MOST Speedway Riders never get a chance to ride in it. Ohh!!! I forgot - unless you are SELECTED of course. How can you call yourself World Champion with MOST Speedway Riders excluded from the Competition. I'm sorry, did MOST riders race in the World Final under the old format. I'm pretty sure that only 16 got to take part then, just the same as now. There are still qualifying rounds which EVERY rider has the opportunity to take part in. As for the original topic... Assuming his arm is back to full strength, Jason on 5 looks to have some value. Gollob certainly doesn't on his current prices. I'm also interested in Nicki at 12...He might have lost it completely, or he might just need the right people back around him and he seems to have got that for this year. Definitely too soon to be writing him off. Hampel on 8 also does't sound like the worst bet in the World, but probably not the greatest value. Having said that, I don't think 2010 was a fluke and would expect him to continue to improve. I'm just not sure that he is hard enough if it came down to a fight for the title with Crump, Gollob or Pedersen. KB being offered at 25 could also be worth considering. He is ever improving and has the attributes to make it to the very top, he just needs to find a bit more consistency when things are going against him in a GP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted January 26, 2011 Report Share Posted January 26, 2011 Crumpy is fit and focussed - it'd take a brave man to bet against him. I'd suggest that given the current fuss over silencers it would be a brave man to bet on anyone in the SGP at this stage. The following article was posted on yahoogroups by PolskiZuzel The top Grand Prix riders are threatening to withdraw from the competition, if the FIM will not permit to use the old silencers.The world champion, Tomasz Gollob explains to www.sports.pl the reasons for the protest. By signing the declaration for the Grand Prix in 2011 we all agreed on the new silencers. We were told then that the new product reducing noise but ensuring also safe ride and proper functioning of other bike's parts will be soon available. - said Tomasz Gollob. This product (silencer) was to be produced by a Danish company But it is still not there. - says Krzysztof Cegielski, Polish riders Union's boss. Therefore, we are prepared a protest and appropriate letter will be sent to the FIM authorities At the moment I have assurances from all GP riders, except Jason Crump, that they will put their signature on a document. If the new silencers are not here we have to return to the old one - says Cegielski. Using new silencers does not make sense and is a denial of the sportsmanship. Therefore we need solidarity of all GP riders to reverse a bad decision. - said Tomasz Gollob. Andrzej Grodzki, Poland's representative in the CCP - said: if such document arrives we will then decide what to do. Right now, all riders have already decided to use new silencers, They did it in writing. We also have four products that meet the requirements . But the FIM chairman can always change his decision. Will he do it? The answer will be known by 5th February, when FIM officials will meet at Geneva - said Grodzki. It should be noted that despite what the article states, Greg Hancock has denied signing or confirming an intention to sign the letter as he has not received a translation of the letter. Rico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmy jimmy Posted January 26, 2011 Report Share Posted January 26, 2011 Grand??? Prix Speedway!! The WINNER is World Champion - what a JOKE!! MOST Speedway Riders never get a chance to ride in it. Ohh!!! I forgot - unless you are SELECTED of course. How can you call yourself World Champion with MOST Speedway Riders excluded from the Competition. Seems plain bloody DAFT to me. Just my opinion. And a pretty strange opinion at that! The best riders are in the GP. The others can qualify by right through the GP Challenge. Some get a wild card spot based on their efforts in world speedway in the previous year, some admittedly because of their nationality. However, they dont get there because they are rich, invited in because of the sponsors they can bring with them, or purely their commercial merchandising value, which are three big reasons to get yourself into Formula 1 or MotoGP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trees Posted January 26, 2011 Report Share Posted January 26, 2011 It should be noted that despite what the article states, Greg Hancock has denied signing or confirming an intention to sign the letter as he has not received a translation of the letter. Oh dear, a black sheep of the pack ............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImpartialOne Posted January 26, 2011 Report Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think Westo is pretty bang on in saying Crumpy is more hungry when challenging than defending. Last season though you had to admire the guy to do what he did with the injuries he carried. Crump is THE most consistent rider of the last 10 years or so with a GP record that the likes of Mauger and Briggs would be proud of. I think it will be his year in 2011. Every year I predict Hancock will lose his hunger and fade away but every year he astounds me. Last year he looked to be fading but came back strong and I think another top 5 or 6 for Greg this year. Gollob will be top 3 again I fancy but I don't see him winning another title now. Hampel could be Crumps strongest challenger and I predict it will come down to these two in October. Holder seemed to lose his spark after Cardiff and I was surprised to see him only scrape 8th after predicting he would improve with every GP but this year I see him comfortably qualifying around 5th. Harris is probably the hardest to predict this year. If he can start the season on form I think he'll end up pushing the big guns but he could just as easily finish 12th. Holta will be lower than last season, probably mid table. I think Jonsson will realise how lucky he is to be in this series and I expect him to finish high, 4th or 5th. Bjerre surprised me last season but I expected him to tail off and I see a quiet series for him with 2 or 3 finals. Pedersen can only improve but I don't see him challenging the top boys so upper mid table for him. 1. Crump 2. Hampel 3. Gollob 4. Jonsson 5. Holder 6. Hancock 7. Pedersen 8. Bjerre 9. Harris 10. Holta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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