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2009 Sgp- Who Will Win?


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one even won with a million to one chance performance

 

There were 49 World Finals, so surely that should be 48-1 not 1,000,000-1 :wink:

 

In fact, if you take into account the highly surprising (at the time) wins for Freddie Williams in 1950 and Peter Craven in 1955, it actually works out to odds of around 15-1 that a rank outsider could win a World Final.

 

On the other hand, in the GP series, that has only been one even mildly surprising winner (Mark Loram in 2000) and even that one wasn't a shock for those who studied Loram's performances as an almost permanent wildcard in 1999 (fifth overall despite missing the first round). It's almost impossible for an outsider to win the World Final. If anyone bar Pedersen or Crump wins in 2009, I'll buy a hat and then eat it. :P

 

All the best

Rob

Edited by lucifer sam
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Sadly speedway is at such a low ebb that there is simply no one better to replace the "ageing line-up"

 

You reap largely what you sow, and it could be argued that the closed shop nature of the SGP discourages potential new talent in the first place. Potential talent is usually in proportion to the opportunities available, as shown by the fact that there used to be enough riders to fill 18 BL teams, but now people are saying the BEL should be reduced to 8 teams because of a shortage of riders. The same principle undoubtedly applies to the SGP - why should riders bother when only a chosen few ever get in? :unsure:

 

To be practical, I think only the previous season's World Champion should automatically qualify for the SGP. I'd then take the top four riders by average from each of the British, Polish and Swedish Leagues, and then fill the four remaining places from the GP qualifier (with two starting at reserve for the first GP). If the same rider qualifies from more than one league, any spare places are filled from the GP qualifier.

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Who really cares who the winner will be? The series has a tired format. Not much change from the 2008 line up, and the riders who have replaced the outgoing ones hardly get the juices flowing. I don't expect too much excitement from the series as a whole, just as long as we get a majority of decent meetings along the way, and a good weekend in Cardiff. Probably will be NP again, seeing as he has the same competition to worry about as 2008, and he pissed that. Yawn.

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Sorry if its not to your approval Grandad.

 

You really are a bitter individual. Can you not take comments in the humour in which they were intended and which were aimed at no-one in particular, especially ones that are sort of agreeing you in the first place?

Edited by Humphrey Appleby
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If a conference league reserve was given a place in a world final would you consider his odds of winning to be 15/1

 

Good job you are not a bookmaker

 

But nobody was "given" a place (bar the odd home representative) - they had to qualify. :wink: And anyone who qualified was good enough to win it - as the plenty of examples I've given already have proven.

 

All the best

Rob

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Local Bydgoszcz brew,. :lol: You should try it sometime.

I DID.THAT WAS THE REASON I WAS AT THE GP CHALLANGE AT ZIELONA GORA BUT NOT AT THE GP CHALLANGE AT ZIELONA GORA IF YOU GET MY MEANING|.SHOULD BE AT BYDGOSZCZ AGAIN NEXT YEAR BUT MAY STAY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL BREW.OR MAYBE NOT

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Well there is merit in that, but who are the "new blood" riders you would like to see. Sadly speedway is at such a low ebb that there is simply no one better to replace the "ageing line-up"

 

The 12 qualified and seeded riders are probably the best 12 around at the moment, (Chris Harris?) the qualifiers are a bit ropey but those aside who would you like to see in there.

 

OK, here's a suggestion:

 

Let's keep the current seeding / qualification system, but select a further three "wildcard reserves". After the halfway point of the series, the bottom three riders in the standings are out and the wildcard reserves replace them for the second half of the series. This gets rid of the no-hopers and brings in new faces to refresh the lineup. It won't give the newcomers enough time to get a top 8 place, but it will put them in the shop window for a full-time wild-card entry for the next year. Do you think this would work and who would you pick? At the moment I'd go for Holder on ability and as a new face, Hampel because he's good enough to get another chance & Bjarne P. because he shouldn't have lost his place to Harris.

 

 

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You really are a bitter individual. Can you not take comments in the humour in which they were intended and which were aimed at no-one in particular, especially ones that are sort of agreeing you in the first place?

 

Try seeing things from the perspective of others for a change. Didn't see any humour in your post, to me, it was just patronising.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I think:

 

1. Nicki Pedersen

2. Leigh Adams

3. Tomasz Gollob

4. Jason Crump

5. Greg Hancock

6. Hans Andersen

7. Andreas Jonsson

8. Scott Nicholls

9. Rune Holta

10. Chris Harris

11. Fredrik Lindgren

12. Greg Walasek

13. Kenneth Bjerre

14. Sebastian Ulamek

15. Emil Sajfutdinov

 

Really can't see much different from that this year. Perhaps Bjerre, Walasek and Harris switching around

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1. Tomasz Gollob- no way hose

2. Nicki Pedersen

3. Jason Crump

4. Leigh Adams

5. Andreas Jonsson

6. Greg Hancock

7. Grzegorz Walasek

8. Scott Nicholls

9. Rune Holta

10. Seba Ułamek

11. Chris Harris

12. Freddie Lindgren

13 Hans Andersen

14 Kenneth Bjerre

15 Emil Sajfutdinov

 

It for you strange types, but there is possible- It can be champion of world Gollob. Surely it will be prepared for season excellently!

Your opinions:

 

No way is Hans gonna finish behind Bomber.

Walasek not that high. He'll have one good grand prix in Poland and thats it.

My Sister says he'll be like Lindgren, when it comes to it, he's absolutely rubbish.

Holta gonna be higher somewhere in the top 8 I would say.

Gollob not consistent enough.

Top Five:

1st-Nicki 2nd Hans 3rd Greg 4th Jason 5th Gollob

 

6-8

6th Nicholls 7th Holta 8th Adams.

 

Bottom three:

13th Harris (Sister doesnt agree) 14th Ulamek 15th Lindgren ( I dont agree with that i would say emil. but apparently sister loves him, she hasnt seen him. :blink: )

 

Good year we think for GP's, British elite league to be french knickers. :approve:

 

:)

Edited by Jammy1997
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1. Nicki Pedersen

2. Jason Crump

3. Hans Andersen

4. Leigh Adams

5. Andreas Jonsson

6. Tomasz Gollob

7. Greg Hancock

8. Kenneth Bjerre

9. Rune Holta

10. Scott Nicholls

11. Emil Sajfutdinov

12. Freddie Lindgren

13 Chris Harris

14 Seb Ulamek

15 Greg Walasek

 

dont think that will be far off :)

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Crump

Pedersen

Andersen

Jonsson

Gollob

Saifudtinov

Nicholls

Adams

Hancock

Bjerre

Lindgren

Harris

Walasek

Ulamek

 

Hopefully that won't be too far off.

 

Highest scoring wildcard - Zagar.

 

Can't believe people are putting Emil down for 15th.

Edited by Silver Bee
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