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Everything posted by MattK
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In fact, only two teams would be without a number one, Workington and Scunthorpe, if everyone re-signs at least one 8-pointer from last season. Workington have already signed Klindt, so in reality that leaves just Scunthorpe. Of course, you are right that a richer club could poach an 8-pointer from another club, but isn't it part of teambuilding to ensure the services of the appropriate rider? Either way it looks as if the 8-point rule won't spread the top riders around the Premiership, as clubs simply cannot afford to sign the surplus riders. This means that unless Somerset, Rye House and Kings Lynn can introduce new 8-pointers who didn't ride in 2017, they will come to the tapes without a recognised #1
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Given that there are 17 riders who finished last season's Championship with an average over 8, that's a lot of riders arbitrarily out of a job. The situation in the Premiership is very different.
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I was watching TV early the other morning and there was what I can only describe as a reality TV show about the crew on a luxury yacht and it got me thinking - how much would it cost to produce some kind of reality series for speedway. There are two possible angles I can think of. The first would be to follow riders during the course of a season racing for their Britsh teams. You could gamify this by having some kind of fantasy speedway angle with senior/ex riders, managers, sponsors etc. picking their teams and meeting/advising the riders they have chosen. An alternative approach could be to create a competition, such as a series for NL riders and each week profile a rider or two and follow their progress through the series. I think this has the potential to expose speedway to a much wider audience than meetings on Sky/BT Sport ever could.
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Do they? At GPs most riders have two or three mechanics. At league meetings I can't remember seeing a rider at Swindon with more than two other people in their pit area, unless they have guests, who are indirectly paying for the experience. Who are these riders with "a whole entourage of helpers"?
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If these two are allow to sign on their previous season's averages, then I think Poole have made a clever move. I can't think of any other 5-pointers who are as established as these two.
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I think the key is who we haven't signed, rather than who we have. Plus, last year's defining moment was signing Musielak on his low average from a previous season. We son't have any riders offering that kind of value in 2018.
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There is none. Strange signing. The team certainly has a cheap feel to it. The only positive is that it's all relative. No one else has announced a staggeringly strong line-up (yet), so fingers crossed the reason we look weak is that we're the first to declare signings.
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Why not?
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Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
42 (or 40.9 if you're SCB). But yes, you're right. However, the variance is usually small enough for it not to matter. In addition you have riders coming and going throughout the season which further distorts the averages away from what is mathematically "perfect" . The main difference being in 2017 that the drop in the team building limit was so severe that it distorted all averages so much so that any rider who doesn't have a 2017 average should be reassessed. -
Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
Woffinden doesn't have a real average, that's the point. The 2017 season was significantly weakened compared to previous years, meaning the average of any rider who didn't ride in 2017 is null and void. -
Hopefully this is a one year contract. The low-ball nature of this offer might prompt some serious consideration of other options, if for no other reason than to give some leverage to future negotiations.
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The main difference is that you run a business with the aim of making money. I don't think anyone buys a speedway club with the expectation of making a profit. The best case scenario is that it breaks even. As I said, most do it for the love of the sport and no doubt a bit of ego is in there too.
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Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
No, that's not one way of looking at it. It is the ONLY way of looking at it if you use the averages he gained in Poland and Sweden. You are trying to introduce some kind of supposition into the equation, which is exactly what an algorithm is there to eliminate. -
Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
That would get you closer to a fair multiplier, but there will always be anomalies. -
Unfortunately, that is how sport works. How many sponsors get a positive return on their investment? I'd argue none, they do it because of their love of the sport and potentially personal relationship with the athletes. Club ownership is the same but on a bigger level. To answer your question... generous people. If someone can come up with a profitable business model for speedway then I'm sure everyone will be all ears.
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Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
It doesn't confirm that. All it confirms is that they rode well in the UK. Lindgren's Polish average is very similar to Holder's Polish average (7.54 v 7.09) The fact that Holder's averages in Poland and the UK are similar (7.09 v 7.16) only shows that Holder had a poor season in the UK, not that he is on the way down. The point I am making is that there are no clear patterns when comparing Polish, Swedish and UK averages, so it is very difficult to come up with an algorithm which will accurately predict how a rider will perform in the UK based on how they have previously ridden in foreign leagues (which is what assessed averages are effectively trying to do). -
£3,000 does seem less than what it would cost clubs to offer £10 entry.
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Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
Actually, it is very difficult. For example Jason Doyle's UK average is 17% higher than his Poland average, which you would expect as Poland is a stronger league. Freddie Lindgren's UK average is 23% higher than his Poland average. However, Chris Holder and Max Fricke's Poland averages are very similar to their UK averages, Holder's being within 1% and Fricke's 6%. Therefore any calculations would have winners and losers and the smart teams will always be looking to sign the anomalies. -
How much of his commission is used to prop-up Swindon?
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Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
The 2017 league was significantly weaker than in previous years. Therefore it makes perfect sense to reassess any rider who didn't ride in 2017. Personally it should be done on a calculated percentage, rather than an arbitrary value, but something is better than nothing. -
Hopefully they will apply some common sense to the fixture planning.
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It will be interesting to see the priority for DUers. In theory, Championship should get priority as Premiership should now be fixed nights.
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Last year the rule was three seasons.
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Does BWD qualify for a discount by virtue of riding for Eastbourne in 2015?
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Reassessed Averages
MattK replied to dontforgetthefueltapsbruv's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
Woryna should be at least a 7. His Ekstraliga average in 2017 was 7.89, although he did ride at reserve.