
Heathcote
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Everything posted by Heathcote
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Australia all the way here, Australia to win, Australia + 3 over the Danes and Australia over 43 points Further bets on Australia -31 over the Finns and Vuolas under 4
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Well they now have a simple choice, finals etc in October, or race them on the current specified dates and run the risk of Ipswich winning the grand final when they only made the play offs due to Sheffield not completing their fixtures in August.
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So the cut off date for league fixtures to be completed is the 31st August...but why? Ok there may be some contractual agreements with Eurosport/WBD to ride the play offs and finals on certain dates, but they don't start till the 11th Sept, so why cant someone in authority now step up to the plate and announce that they are moving the KO Cup final dates from the 4th and 7th September to the first 2 dates in October? As there are no guarantees whatsoever that the 2nd semi between Ipswich and Peterboro will have been ridden by the 4th September anyway, given that it could be raining on the 7th August. Plus there is no agreement with TV channels to show the KO Cup...BSN can adjust their schedule at a moments notice anyway. The moving of the KO Cup final dates would then allow 2 extra days to ride unfinished league matches, of which Sheffield and Peterboro currently have 3, so not all will be finished anyway
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Whilst other teams dont have any to arrange, they all going to be struggling if there are any further rain offs though, pretty sure the KO Cup final will get put back, as the other finalists havent quite been decided yet But that wouldnt fit with the Eursport TV Schedules
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Ipswich v Peterboro Think this will be a comfortable home win by 20 points, so backing the -14 H'cap for Ipswich, Also think the Witches will take a lead early on and just keep it growing so also taking the -8 Hcap at heat 8. Always the risk that Emil doesnt appear in Heat 15. Ben Cook dint perform to badly on his last visit and is continuing t improve everywhere he goes so think he will get 5 rides and should cover the -3 over Riss Sheffield v Belle Vue Expect a Tigers victory of 48-42, so no play on any of the handicaps. Kurtz has had plenty of laps around Owlerton over the years and fully expect him to score over 9, also think Lidsey will get over 7, to be honest I only see Sheffields top 2 troubling Bewley Kurtz and Lidsey, Sheffield's win will come with Ellis Pickering and Howarth outscoring the other 4 Aces. Alos hoping Connor has a nightmare introduction to Owlerton, so backing Dan at -2 to outscore him Kings Lynn v Leicester A total punt here, after the Stars ran the Lions close in the early part of Mondays meeting there is a glimmer of hope that the Tsars can keep it close all the way to the end on their home circuit...but this is also dependant on the Stars being happy with the surface they get to ride on, but in the hope Buster has done something to stop Klindt whining, Im backing the Stars at +4 on the H'cap. Also on Klindt over 9 from 6 rides, Jorgensen over 8 from 5/6 rides, Lawson should be having 5 rides also so backing him over 9 as well
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In my opinion 365 certainly making it harder to find any value or mistakes in their prices and handicaps these days particuarly when it should be 3 comfortable home victories tonight and you are left guessing who could make heat 15, but for what its worth he's my picks for tonight Ipswich +14, basically can Ipswich get 39 points? Doyle and Emil are more than capable of getting 28 points between them, given that they will have 6 and 5 rides, so can the other 5 witches get 11 points? King really ought to be picking up 6 points, sure the bigger track will be more to Riss' liking and should get a few along with Rew also picking up 2 or 3 I think that the witches will get to 39. As a result of the above almost feel obliged to back Emil over 13 and Doyle over 8, pretty much banking on Emil having the tactical ride. Also Doyle to outscore Bewley Again can Kings Lynn get to 39 points, I feel they can so will back them at +14, Laguta Klindt and Howarth should be good for 30 points. Rowe and Jorgensen will be required to score approx 4 points each leaving Lambert to pick up 1 or 2. I will take a punt on Klindt over Harris, sure Nicolai has a point to prove after recent home disappointments and showed his gating class in the recent pairs meeting. Also Howarth over 7. For the home side Lawson over 8, now he's at 5 and pretty much up against 2 reserves in each race, except heat 13, although he is more than capable of winning that heat at home anyway. Batchelor under 6, just do not see him picking up much more than 4 third places Only bet in the Wolves meeting is Masters over 9, feel the only competition he will face to prevent him getting that will be Steve Worrall.
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Kings Lyn v Sheffield Anders Rowe off scratch to outscore to Dan Gilkes Josh Pickering over 8 Artem Laguta -3 over Jack Holder, basically on the proviso Artem will have 6 rides and no guarantees that Jack will have 5 rides Ipswich v Wolves Emil over 12 and Doyle over 12, basically thinking the Witches will require them both in Heat 15 to guarantee the victory Emil -3 over Masters Keynan Rew over 4 Ipswich -4 Leicester v Peterboro Neils over 4 Lawson -3 over Basso The treble of Ipswich, Leicester and Sheffield just to win the meetings pays 1.78, which is good enough odds for me to wade in
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Best Pairs Klindt under 16 @13/10? That requires Klindt to pretty much finish second in all his 6 races, I just dont see that happening against this field, especially when team riding is the aim of the games, he could follow Jorgensen home in 3rd place more times that he actually wins a heat. Jorgensen -1 over Riss, Just don't see Riss scoring hardly anything tonight, sure just using this meeting to get more laps under his belt after being out for so long Leicester and Belle Vue over 32, just dont see either of these teams picking up any last places, so that guarantees them 30 points if that happens, add in a few races wins as well and that puts them over the 32 point barrier Peterboro under 22 on league form alone the panthers are getting no where near this score, although being Worralls ex track and both him and Cook hitting double fingers at Leicester earlier this year , they could be spoilers in this meeting. I feel though they are up against much stiffer opposition tonight than back in April and Richie Worralls form has certainly gone downhill since his early season highlight at Leicester, so reasonably convinced they wont hit 20 points
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Only 3 plays for me tonight as I think 365 are about right with an 8 point Aces victory, so too close for me to play on that, also hard to guess which Star will take the Tac Sub ride and also which Wolves will appear in heat 15 So just going with Wolves -20, Kurtz over 9 and Cook +1 over Brennan
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Out an about so a brief list Cook over Hume off Scratch, Basso -1 over Riss, Lawson off scratch over Ellis, Pickering Over 6, Leicester +12 and Peterboro +16
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Wolves v Sheffield kc..19th June..
Heathcote replied to Pauldoveyspeedway's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
Official score card has Ellis in 2nd in Heat 7 whereas updates has Howarth 2nd So officially Ellis gets 5 , which means Becker didnt outscore him -
Wolves v Sheffield Wolves will win this meeting easily, although think Sheffield will hold on to progress to the final, but a 52-38 victory for the Wolves so backing Wolves at -6. Even though Ellis will have at least 5 rides I dont see how he gets over 8 points, will most likely be out with howarth in 4 of those rides, who rides Monmore better and has proven a very hard man to pass especially by his own team mates !! So a lot of 3rd/4th places for Adam tonight. Becker over 8, has a tendency to pop out in front of Douglas and apart from Musielak, dont see any of the Tigers beating Luke tonight. Also Becker over Ellis is a bet Belle Vue v Peterboro BV at -16 is a bet as i see a comfortable 22 point victory for the Aces, 56-34. Will also back Kurtz at -1 over Tarasenko, obviously a bit of the unknown here, bit if Tarasenko is outscoring Brady then he has most likely raced to an 18 point max. NKI under 8, although has had good performances at Belle Vue I just think the BV heat leaders will always finish ahead of him and possibly Ben Cook will outscore him too. Basso has been very poor lately and although Wright struggles to get in front of Lidsey these days, still think Charles will cover the -3 handicap to outscore Basso Kings Lynn v Leicester Will back the Stars at +4, a very tight match on the cards again, but Laguta and Klindt should keep it close enough. Laguta with 6 possibly 7 rides will score over 14 and the same applies to Klindt to score over 11. Kye Thomsen at -1 to outscore Jake Allen as well as Lawson to score over 9.
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Or in an hypothetical scenario A v B - A fixture meeting is drawn so a super heat, Team A win B v A - B fixture meeting is drawn so a super heat, Team A Win But they are tied for the aggregate bonus....so is there Super heat also?? Which say Team B win? So Team A wins both matches but loses the aggregate bonus point Brilliant innovation???? Or diabolical situation....although cant complain at 33 heats for the price of 30
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A few bets tonight as there is 3 matches so brief write up Sheffield v Ipswich Tigers to win by 10 I feel, 50-40, so taking the -8 on offer, also think they will do well early on so also taking the Tigers at -6 after Heat 8 Danny King back at a track he knows well, being partnered with Ben Barker gifts him a minimum of 3 points, plus heat 12 should gift him 4 points irrespective. Feel he may also have the beating of Ellis and or Bellego and or Howarth so should score over 6 Howarth -1 over Rew purely on the basis Rew hasn't been to Owlerton before and it may take him a couple of heats to find some lines, expecting Kyle to be pushing 8 points whilst Keynan only may get 5 Leicester v Belle Vue Leicester to edge this one 47-43, but do expect the Lions to start well and therefore backing them at -4 after Heat 8. Expecting Max to have a good night so backing him over 10, also expect Brady to go well and backing him -2 over Nick Morris Kings Lynn v Wolves Hard to say whether the ommision of Jakobsen makes them stronger, but at home and if Klindt's improvement from Monday night continues then i feel it does. So certainly backing the Stars at +2, especially as I wasnt overly impressed with some of the Wolves last Thursday on a bigger track. I know its been said by many but do feel tonight could be the night Artem goes unbeaten so backing over 13. Klindt with 5 rides minimum Im backing him over 8, Also MPT over 8 as well. The particular disappointment last week was Luke Becker and i can see him struggling again tonight so will back him under 8, and obvioulsy backing Klindt to outscore Becker as a result. Will also back Artem to outscore Douglas, a risk as Ryan could have 7 rides, but still think Artem's full house will win the bet The straight home wins treble pays 5/2, so will have some on that also
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But why can you have Sheffield and Leicester then..thats what I dont get
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Do you know why you cant add Sheffield to make that a treble, I tried but 365 wont allow the bet? You can have Sheffield and Leicester as a double as well as the double you listed but cant add Sheffield with the Stars/Lions??
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Sheffield v Wolves Think Sheffield are in pretty dominant form at home at this moment whilst Wolves have run Sheffield close in the past a few too many riders are hit and miss, and therefore i think Sheffield will run our 20 point winners, around 55-35, so will be backing Sheffield at -10, also feel Sheffield will get off to a decent start and will easily cover the -4 H'cap at heat 8. Pretty certain Adam has returned to a little form and certainly has the gating prowess to pop out in front coupe of times at least, therefore backing him to score more than 6. Also backing Musielak over 10, with this being the first leg and requiring as big as lead as possible i dont see how he doesnt get 5 rides tonight. The same goes for Sam Masters, as he will have 5 rides he should be good for over 8, especially being one of the more consistent wolves riders around Owlerton. Will also back the Musielak -1 over Masters and Ellis -1 over Becker. Kings Lynn v Belle Vue I do feel with the absence of Brady that Kings Lynn could just nick this. Reckon Artem will be much better for last weeks experience and could now easily go through the programme unbeaten, as well as thinking that the other 6 stars are good enough to get 31 points between them. Although I think the value bet lies in taking Kings Lynn to be leading the meeting at heat 8. Will be backing Artem to score over 11 and also Bewley to score over 14, with 6 rides guaranteed for Dan and possibly 7 if things go pear shaped for the Aces, will also back TJ with a -1 H'cap over Brennan. Leicester v Ipswich Again a very close meeting expected with Leicester just winning the meeting, maybe 47-43, am expecting Danny King to hit back with a slightly improved performance from monday night given that he is back at a track he knows well, so backing him to score over 6, also taking him with a +1 start to outscore Nick Morris. With Nick up against Jason and Emil at least twice and one of those times heat 13 when i cant see him getting a point then Danny possibly only needs to score 5/6 to come out a winner.
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Well hadn't expected Ipswich to be 6 behind at heat 9, then again hadn't banked on Doyle being so poor and certainly hadn't expected Hawkins to be so heavily invested on the Emil under 12 market !!!
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The basis that in most races of the first half either Jason or Emil or Mulford are in each heat therefore it will remain reasonably close till heat 10 and therefore Emil will be out in Heat 11 with Jason
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Belle Vue v Ipswich Difficult one to call I think, yes Belle Vue will win the meeting but how close do Jason and Emil keep it? Jason 31 points from his 15 heats there last season, Emil hasn't seen the track for a little while, although thats hasn't slowed up anywhere else in the UK. Leaning towards backing Ipswich at +8, as i reckon Barker, King, Rew, Hume and Thompson can get 14 points between them, which should be enough to cover the H'Cap Main bets will be Brennan -2 over Barker and Wright -2 over Rew, also Emil over 12, as I think he will have the full 6 rides this evening
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Kings Lynn v Sheffield Think Sheffield will just edge this meeting, but will be too close for me to take on the handicap, but an away victory of 47-43/48-42. I will be backing KL at +6 after heat 8 though as i just dont see how Sheffield build an 8 point lead in the first few races barring EF's or both Jakobsen and Morris having nightmares Howarth at -2 over Kye Thomsen should land, 6 rides vs a potential 3 without scoring. Also Tobiasz over 9, double figures every time he has been there and I don't see how anyone else suddenly forces him and Jack out of heat 15. Laguta under 15 also, personally i dont think the Stars will require a tac sub so Artem will be restricted to just 5 rides, yes he could go through the card but worth a bet that he wont. Also having Jakobsen to score over 5 Ipswich v Wolves I think Ipswich will win by 8-10 points so will be taking the -4 h'cap bet on, Im also taking the heat 8 h'cap as well as suddenly the Witches are +2 at that point?? Not exactly sure why 365 think the Witches will start poorly but still win, but hey im game to take that bet. Also backing Rory under 7, Highest score this season away from Monmore is 5 points
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King’s Lynn v Sheffield 01/06/23
Heathcote replied to Bald Bloke's topic in SGB Premiership Speedway League
Riding for Gdansk at Bydgoscz, the same reason Bellego is missing, although uncertain whether Bellego will ride in that meeting as still feeling the effects of his spill at Sheffield last week