NJC71

Redcar have a good side this season and given our serious weakness at reserve (which surely can't be sustained) I expected an easy home win. But that was abysmal from the Diamonds. Only Lindgren could be reasonably satisfied with his performance. Well done Ellis Perks. Exceptional performance. Very shrewd signing by the Redcar promotion.

Easy home win. Fear Redcar will expose the weak Diamonds lower order while Garrity, Wright & Barker (if on a good night) can keep our top 2 occupied.

That's the point I was making, he probably can't be replaced which means we are stuck unless Coles improves significantly as the weeks progress. This was predictable though, the evidence was there from last season that this would be a real problem. I can only assume they thought Coles would be better than he has been so far. Certainly not writting him off but he is almost the key rider now.

Good result for the Diamonds to get a replay although it sounds like Worky threw away a few points. If we are going to do anything this season though we must find some way of strengthening the bottom end of the team. The reserve pairing looked probably the weakest in the division at the start of the season and so it is proving. Coles is obviously inexperienced and it would be harsh to judge him on a handful of matches but he is finding it tough to score any points and he really needs a decent reserve alongside him to take the pressure off. Phillips just isn't good enough I'm afraid. That was fairly obvious last season and I wasn't really expecting anything to change this season as there were no real signs of any progress through the whole of last year. Whether we can do anything about is another thing; that fact that Phillips finished fourth in the recent U21 qualifier doesn't say much about the quality of riders at that level - might sound a harsh statement but it's probably a fact. Think we made a mistake going in so weak at reserve and I fear it will cost us any chance of competing for anything this season. Workington aren't one of the stronger teams in my opinion.

Craig Cook as ever a pleasure to watch around Brough and his heat 13 win was as good a ride as you'll ever see on this track. Credit to Steve Worrall for beating him twice - that takes some doing. Felt a bit sorry for Jorgensen being stuck on the graveyard gate 4 twice in that company. 8 points is a decent win for the Diamonds and gives them a fighting chance in the return leg. It could go to the wire. The obvious problem the Diamonds have is the weakness we have at reserve. I said when the 1-7 was announced that we had a strong top 5 but we'd be badly exposed at reserve unless Connor ends up being another Worrall/Kerr/Rose. Of course it's far too early to judge him on a couple of meetings and he is certainly mixing it which is encouraging. Brough is a tough track to learn and it will probably take him a good dozen meetings to get the hang of it. I'm afraid though that Phillips is well out of his depth at this level and is nowhere near good enough to be a senior reserve while Connor develops. That puts pressure on the top 5 and makes heat advantages difficult to come by. If and when we use rider replacement we'll be in big trouble.

Can see the point but not sure replacing RL with Aarnio would have freed up enough points to get AM down to reserve.

Top 5 is a match for most announced so far. Worrall & Lambert will be as good as any top 2 in the league, Lindgren will be a decent third heat leader. Morris will do a job at number 2 and Rose could be a key rider at 4 if he can recapture the form he was in before his injury. He could be a big improver again. A couple of obvious issues though. Firstly the reserves. No problem at all with Coles and it's always enjoyable watching new British riders make their debut at this level and watch them progress. Newcastle have a fantastic record with riders such as Connor in recent history. Kyle Newman, Richie Worrall, Lewis Kerr and Lewis Rose have all arrived here as young relatively unknown riders and progressed at rapid rates so let's hope Connor can do something similar. He has a decent record at NL level which is on a par with the likes of Jack Smith, JPB and Danyon Hume. He has also been cutting his teeth at Mildenhall so the tight turns of Brough should hold no fears for him, not to mention his family background in the sport. I can remember watching his Dad for years riding for Edinburgh and Exeter and he was a quality rider. Danny Phillips though needs to have a good year and he needs to start well. With an inexperienced youngster alongside him he can't afford to be 3 lengths behind going into the first corner like he was more often than not last year. He won't have Lewis Rose or Ashley Morris to protect him, but he has a year behind him now and must use that to his advantage. Personally, despite his efforts I didn't see signs of any real improvement last season so unless Connor is another Newman, Worrall, Kerr or Rose I fear for us in that department. The other big problem is the availability of the top 3. We await to see which PL clubs they sign for but fair to assume that both Steve and Robert will be signing deals with Belle Vue, King's Lynn or whoever. Robert has also signed deals in Sweden and Poland as well as his U21 commitments. Ludde too missed a fair few meetings riding in both Swedish Leagues. Question is then what sort of side are we going to have on the road? Same as last season? Ultimately that was our undoing. All of that said I have every sympathy with promoters trying to put teams together under a 40 point limit. The top British youngsters were always going to be gold dust and it's not surprising that they will go to the clubs with the most money. We have to build a side we can afford to employ and I don't think anybody can complain. Riders of the calibre of Stevie and Robert won't come cheap (and neither should they). Finally I hope Palovarra, Terro and particularly Matej can get fixed up. Matty did nothing wrong last year and was actually very good around Brough. He can count himself unlucky to be left out but with so few options at the lower end of the scale and riders like Steve and Robert available and happy to return it was always on the cards that either he or Ludde would miss out. Hopefully relationships with the club are not damaged and he can return in the future. Likewise for Terro.

More important is who we get at 7 if rumours are right and Phillips is to be retained. We need to pull another rabbit out of that (as we have done in the past) otherwise we'll be woefully weak at reserve and it won't matter if it's Lindgren, Wells, Kus or Tai Woffinden in the top 5. I don't necessarily agree that Phillips will start scoring due to the possible influx of inexperienced riders at reserve. Berwick & Scunthorpe have reasonable reserve pairings while JPB, Tom Bacon and Jack Smith who are all improving and who all have favourable form with Phillips at NL level, have all been snapped up.

Would agree with that. Wells is a good rider at this level and I wouldn't be against signing him but as ever people are being unfair on Ludde. The stats from last year don't back up the argument that Wells would be a much better signing. Can't be any argument that Lindgren is better to watch.

Really? Lindgren had a higher PL average than Wells last year (8.5 v 8.3). Their away averages were very similar - Wells 6.8, Lindgren 6.7. Hardly the statistical evidence to say that Wells is a much better rider. And as for Lindgren having reached his level, he put over half a point on his GS average last year. Wells' average dropped by nearly a point.

Agree. I'd keep Ludde. Unless he wants to go of course. Anyway all pure speculation.

If you have two poor reserves they won't score enough to get into the top 5. We won't win anything with Phillips and a 2 pointer at reserve unless we can find a 2 pointer who can put 3-4 points on his average. At the end of the day the reserves take nearly a third of the rides so can't be covered by the top 5. Glasgow had two more than capable reserves last year in Garcia and Ayres. Both were in a different league to Phillips.

If Phillips is in the team we must have a strong reserve alongside him otherwise we will be battered at reserve home and away. Would need to build a team with lower averaged riders at the top to ensure someone like Morris was at 6.

As harsh as it sounds I didn't see any improvement in Danny despite plenty of effort and no real signs of progress either. The reality is he was no quicker at the end of the year than he was at the start. You are really looking for potential and signs of progress even if it's not shown in points, e.g. being regularly on the pace and picking up the odd win. We just didn't see that with Danny. For those reasons I don't see the point of including him again. I know some are suggesting reserves will be weaker, but is that really a reason for including him? Surely that's a better reason for giving a rider who might have more longer term potential a chance? I suspect he will get a place but I think that's more to do with the paucity of riders riding up here. If they had options I doubt he'd be in the team.

Does the Polish second division run on Sunday's? Thought it was Thursday's? Has to be said though that including a rider who rides abroad 2 days a week plus 36 PL fixtures and U21/GB would be a hell of a gamble. Would rarely be available for away matches.

Why would you have Richie Worrall over Robert Lambert? Don't understand that.

Not necessarily next year no, but would be surprised if he doesn't up his average particularly as the league will be weaker.

Couldn't disagree more about Rose. Was flying until his crash. He wasn't getting regular double figures + home and away just by beating reserves. Providing he's none the worse for his crash he could easily up his average. Potential 8-9 point rider for me. Don't necessarily get the pull for Newman. Been on a 6-7 point average in the old PL for several seasons now. Has scored really well in the EL but that's been as a protected reserve getting a lot of easy rides. Got to question why he hasn't moved through the ranks in the PL.

Robert Branford would be a good signing on a lowish average. Rides Brough very well and seems to be a rider on the up although I suspect he'll have plenty of options. I was also impressed with Cameron Heeps when he rode up here for Rye House and is another on a low average who still has potential to improve. I think we need one big hitter. I wouldn't want to be going in with a 7 pointer at number 1. When we've had successful seasons it's always been with decent strength at the top. We need either Lambert or Worrall but I don't think you can have both with just 40 points to play with. My only issue with either is availability especially as there are so many PL fixtures next year. If we do that we could probably only have one 7-8 point rider as back-up. My choice would be Rene but suspect they'd go with Ludde. I can't see a place for Kus unless we go without a genuine number 1. Can understand people putting Phillips in given his average, but I don't see the point. Surely it's worth gambling on an NL 2 pointer who might improve as the season progresses. No direspect but Danny didn't improve at all last year and I just can't see the signs of improvement in him. Lewis Rose & Ashley Morris should be priority signings, especially with the low limit. No thanks on Victor and as much as I like Tero his fitness is too much of a gamble on a 6.5 average.

It is but it's over the 40 point limit even before you add the number 7.

Because teams don't pay the same points money for every rider. Heat leaders earn more per point than second strings and reserves. You don't think Danny Phillips was on the same money as Lambert or Worrall do you? Plus some riders get paid a flat rate regardless of how many points they score. The lower the points limit, the lower the standard of rider you are employing, the less you pay.

Something had to be done. Berwick, Plymouth & Wirkington all had big financial problems last season and that's just the three we know about. Can't just ignore that so the obvious way to reduce costs it to lower the points limit. As ever clubs need to be sensible for this to work. My worry would be the clamour for 4-5 point riders and the best 3 pointers. If those riders start demanding/getting offered stupid money then we're no further forward. I also worry that there aren't enough 3 pointers around, particularly in the north so we get the situation we had last season with teams selecting riders who clearly aren't good enough simply because there are no other options.

The 40 point limit is going to make it very difficult for CL teams to put sides together. 4-5 point riders will be like goldust and I think there'll be plenty of heat leaders struggling for team places. Possible line-ups: Lambert - 8.76 (or Worrall 8.51) Lindgren - 7.65 Rose - 5.86 Heeps - 5.07 Morris - 4.83 Branford - 4.60 AN Other - 3.00 = 39.77 Or another approach Lindgren - 7.65 Kus - 7.55 Bach - 7.32 Rose - 5.86 Morris - 4.83 Branford - 4.60 Phillips - 2.00 = 39.81 Neither team looks strong but get used to it. Much weaker line-ups next season for everyone.

Doubling up will be the big issue. With 36 league fixtures in both leagues, using a doubling up rider will be a big risk. Bigger than last season when there were lots of problems with absent riders. I also wouldn't get overly excited if I was a Chris Harris or a Scott Nicholls thinking they'll be guaranteed CL spots. With a 40 point limit there won't be many teams using 9.5 point men. Still everybody knows the rules so there's no use complaining when double up riders are unavailable. Promotion and relegation remains a gimick for me. I don't think there is any real belief that anyone will get relegated or a CL team would accept a move up. And with the 50 point limit - what happens when the real averages kick in after the first set of averages are released? Does the 50 point limit still apply? Are we going to see teams making lots of team changes as soon as the real averages apply? Lots of good things announced but still some grey areas.