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arnieg

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Everything posted by arnieg

  1. You seem to have missed the point. All teams (bar Edinburgh) were signed and announced by the equivalent date last year. The delay between signing and announcing riders is not a new phenomenon, so clearly team building has been substantially slower than last year.
  2. It may be a risk but the fact that Danno (and Ben Morley) are showing the ambition to improve their all round riding skills, even though it may cost them in the short term, should be applauded. It is the sort of commitment that should make them popular with fans. I hope it works out for both of them. (Last year signings of Campos and Portwood raised a few eyebrows, but both were very popular - so it is clear that such left field signings can work for the Warriors).
  3. 24 vacancies left to fill. At the equivalent date last year nine out of ten teams were complete. There were just three spots left to fill. Looks like there are some problems.
  4. 31 spaces to fill. At this stage last year (and excluding Belle Vue and Leicester who were not confirmed as running and had no promoters) the number of unfilled spots was just TWO. Looks to me as if signing affordable riders may be an issue.
  5. Sixth in Danish Under 21 Championship 2nd in Fritte Cup (season long competition for up and coming riders) Rode a few Danske Metal League matches for Esbjerg, including a 13 paid 18 at Grindsted where he beat Porsing, Bellego and Patrick Hansen 11-nil Scored 4 points for Sweden in European Under 21 Team Final (he was out scored by all four Latvians) He is one of a number of promising Danes of similar ability - Patrick Hansen, Jonas Jeppesen, Jason Jorgensen, Andreas Lyager, Mikkel B Andersen - all of whom could turn into decent riders but none of whom look like future GP stars. Most likely top stars among Danish under 21 riders are Frederik Jakobsen, Tim Sorensen and Mads Hansen (the latter two only moved from 85cc to 500cc last year so are still very young). Jakobsen would be worth considering for a PL place, the others would probably be better suited to the CL [subject to assessed averages being appropriate.]
  6. One thing I'd add to SCB's excellent post is team identity's need to be reestablished. For example team building rules that encourage tracks to retain more of the previous season's riders would be a start.
  7. Looks like generator problems are infectious! http://www.sportbible.com/football/reactions-news-stoke-city-vs-west-ham-will-now-kick-off-at-4pm-after-bizarre-delay-20171216
  8. While that is true, what British speedway need if it is to survive is a dozen riders like Joe Jacobs and Stefan Nielsen. Paul Starke is as great example of a rider who took quite a long time to make the grade (which he did through hard work) that most supporters would be happy to see in their team. Up and coming riders don't need unrealistic expectations to live up to, equally they need to be given the space to learn at their own speed. One Dan Bewley is a bonus.
  9. In a couple of threads I suggested that an easy way to produce assessed averages would be to I could do it in a couple of hours using data already in existence I'd use dolgin's rankings, starting by doing linear regression on all those riders who have 2017 British averages. That would give a formula that would provide an average for every rider. ( I would reduce the average of Americans by 10% because I think dolgin's methodology over-rates them). And finally I would round to the nearest half point). And I would use a 1.25 multiplier to go from PL to CL. I have now done it (and it took less than two hours) I used Dolgin's rankings at 30 September (topped by Tai Woffinden on 4701 ranking points and end of season PL GSA averages for all riders (61) with a PL GSA achieved in 2017 over 3.00. The regression formula came out as: Formula: Assessed Average = (ranking points – 1118) --------------------------------- 347.3 Here's the scatter graph: And the list of assessed riders (note it includes anyone without a PL or CL GSA achieved in 2017 (so it includes riders like Stefan Nielsen, Tobias Busch and Davey Watt) And a list of assessments: 10.5 Woffinden 10 Zmarzlik 9.5 Zagar Dudek Hancock 9 Laguta Laguta Pawlicki Pawlicki Sayfutdinov Vaculik Pedersen 8.5 Janowski Kolodziej hampel Iversen Milik Wozniak Jonsson 8 Lindback Drabik Kildemand Sundstrom Lebedevs Holta 7.5 Jepsen Jensen Miedzinski Protasiewicz Michelsen Ljung Woryna Bech Zengota 7 Smektala Okoniewski Thomsen Crump Jamrog Smolinski Mat Szczepaniak Mroczka Korneliussen 6.5 Janniro Jedrzejak K Gomolski Fajfer Wolbert Bogdanovs Karpov Buczkowski Przedpelski 6.5 Ulamek Czaja D Davidsson Kosciuch P Aspgren Pieszczek F Jakobsen Bach 6 Walasek Kudryashov J Davidsson Pavlic Lampart B Pedersen Jablonski Krcmar Jeleniewski 6 Covatti Puodzuks KK Hansen Lyager P Karlsson 5.5 M Ruml Franc M Nowak Berntzon Berge Gizatulin Gala Kroner Gafurov 5.5 D Balinski Miskowiak Kubera Kulakov Miesiac Tarasenko 5 Watt K Jablonski Brzozowski Karczmarz Kus Koza C Vissing J Andersson Eklof 5 Polis Palovaara Cyfer R Jensen Bober Hjelmland Borodulin 4.5 Fisher J Jorgensen Mazur Hartel Busk Jakobsen M B Andersen K Andersen Kostigovs Jeppesen 4.5 J Kling Dolny Busch Chugunov Thornblom Stachyra Ajtner Gollob A Gomolski Nissen 4.5 Adamczewski Borowicz Drodz T Sorensen Jedrzewski Skornicki Monberg Kaczmarek 4.5 Risager Tabaka Stichauer Kuciapa K Lykke 4 Lindman Melnichuk Grobauer Mads Hansen Z Holub St Nielsen S Burza Michalovs L Sowka 4 Fox Becker Manzares B Bast Nicol Novratil Thaysen Alden M Tresarrieu 4 Chmiel Castagna Melgren Sogaard Gruchalski Chalov Fierlej R Kling P Hansen 4 Adamczak Logachev F Eriksson Fienhage Tornqvist V Bergstrom Mag Karlsson suchanek Puszakowski 4 Dilger
  10. I did the linear regression I mentioned earlier and Joel Andersson comes out at 4.96 PL equivalent!
  11. A true devotee. He will be missed as a familiar face at a lot of tracks. He did over 5000 meetings!
  12. I could do it in a couple of hours using data already in existence I'd use dolgin's rankings, starting by doing linear regression on all those riders who have 2017 British averages. That would give a formula that would provide an average for every rider. ( I would reduce the average of Americans by 10% because I think dolgin's methodology over-rates them). And finally I would round to the nearest half point). And I would use a 1.25 multiplier to go from PL to CL.
  13. A very contentious statement! I agree but thousands wouldn't
  14. Championship has now reached the point where over 50% of positions are filled. But in the PL it is only 16%. Looks a bit worrying.
  15. I've come up with a FOURTH Reading Racer who was a full time member of Reading's Premier League team prior to being a full time GP member: ....Peter Ljung
  16. Straightforward really. Step 1: Get a data set of riders with averages in both leagues. Step 2: do linear regression to come up with a best fit. Step 3: apply formula to riders whose averages you wish to assess.
  17. Jonas started his British career with Reading Racers in the second tier. (Although I can't imagine a 2004 average is still valid)
  18. As tenants with tough planning restrictions Birmingham are never going to be able to offer too many opportunities for practice. But one of the problems is that those tracks that can, often put in time and effort only seeing their best prospects enticed away by higher paying teams. If that disincentive isn't removed then the danger is that fewer tracks will make the effort to introduce youngsters to the sport.
  19. Personally I preferred the suggestion of making the SWC biannual and then reintroducing the Pairs in the intervening years. Then perhaps after a few years if one competition appears to be working better than another we could go to just SWC or just Pairs.
  20. When a client of mine won the league he made a substantial loss. And that was at a time when there was a fixed pay scale.
  21. There's a lot to be said for variety. My three best meetings last year were a league match (P'boro v Sheff), an individual (PLRC at Belle Vue) and a 4TT (@ Mildenhall). Unfortunately not enough people find other meetings attractive to make them financially viable for the most part, so they will remain an endangered species.
  22. Yes I was once commissioned to write and submit a paper rebutting a rather mad idea for recalculating averages that one of the leading lights of the BSPA was pushing for.
  23. Zagar, Kolodziej and Richardson all rode in the PL for the Racers
  24. You can add Craig Cook (Buxton) to your list of NL riders who went on to the GP Peterborough Thundercats tracked three riders who rode at Cardiff as wildcards - Stead, Howe, King
  25. Fine, but how long do you think a top division of just four teams would last?
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