STEVEHOLS54

Hmmm. I've been checking the stats over and again the last 6/8 weeks as per the final and official GSA sheets and with our 4 Brits getting their 2.5% reductions (which I assume they still do ??), then we were left with 8.97. That's why Bjerre on a bargain 5.87 and Bowtell on 3.10 (or 3.02 with the 2.5%) fitted so perfectly into that total. Also the alleged move for Grondal on 5.04 IF he could have got a 2019 injury reduction would have got him to 4.91 leaving 4.06 which left the door open for another young Aussie or say Kennedy/Keleher on 4. I assume that Grondal did not qualify for the reduction which perhaps why such a move was dropped. Unless Grondal was a big smoke screen ??. If it really was 8.25 then that really would mess us up IF Kurtz was being considered on his FULL 5.43 as only leaves 2.82 for a N/L rookie/young rider. More likely to force us down the 2 x 4 point addl Aussie route. Can't be right - can it ?????

Not convinced Manzares will ever make it big in the sport and feel would struggle just as he did some years ago. Maybe should stay with the change of career he embarked on. Think there are better options even at this stage.

Well Keleher confirmed out of series after crash in round 2 and head injury, so doesn't want to risk it. So in 3 rides over the first 2 rounds - zero points. looking at his fb comments get impression he thinks it may have cost him a UK place. In honesty I think most of the established riders would have beat him anyway if the likes of Medson/Ben Cook & Morrison anything to go by. Points by these guys mainly earned on back of falls/excl or ef by established riders or against the above lower guys/reserves. Was thinking that if we can't get one of the new Aussies or one of the best youngsters like Gilmore who is the best of the under 20 riders, we could maybe do worse than young Zane Kennedy who had a fairly ok first season (similar to Stewarts first season in 2018) and finished as Sheffield's rider of the season which not a bad feat in your first season and still only 21. It could be that Keleher appeals/ed because he looks like he has decent sponsors behind him - an all singing & dancing website own racing brand etc which may reduce cost ?? Plus Dick Barrie commented he looks a decent talent. It's a risk though having never ridden here. What we also don't know is whether the Kurtz route is still open if the other options fall down and would he be too happy to be a choice more forced than actually wanted/preferred. But of course we do allegedly have all the ex top Aussie guys now based in Aussie looking out for the best talent for Poole, so be interesting to see if/what they come up with and do they want to do UK anyway ?? Be interesting to see if anything comes out of the Aussie U21 meeting in 10/11 days to see if one of their exciting talents comes forth. Hook excluded himself as finishing school in 2020 and will base in POL in 2021. Similar with Rew who will do POL/DK in 2020 and think base in DK like 2019 before his bad injury. Will Gilmore even be fit for the meeting after his broken wrist from 5th Nov. Although he has nothing to prove after 2 World junior Champ final wins in Europe and looks an exciting talent. If he even wants to do Champ or go down the Lidsey route of POL and then UK Prem. Going to be interesting to see what comes out over coming weeks.

Yes but don't think Morley fits as takes us over 8.97 even if both get a 2.5% reduction. Morley would be 3.71 and Kurtz 5.29 = 9 which is 0.03 over the 9 This is the conundrum Poole face as a result of signing made. Losing both Hansen & Bjerre kind of messed up plans imo, hence maybe why a rethink on which direction to take. At one stage we seemed primed for Bjerre with Bowtell meaning we had a 5 plus rider in 2019 who is a truer 7 to 8.5 man in Bjerre with Bowtell slipping in nicely to balance out the points. Hansen on 5 points was a guy who showcased his results in the World U21 Champs last 2 seasons and has lots of potential, so worth the risk on a 5 giving us the pick of the riders left who were decent N/L H/L or reserves in Champ near enough. Maybe Kurtz is still an option but perhaps the Ford's are weighing up the options to see what gives them potentially the better mix to score points over the 2 places with what points are available. Of course cost could also be a factor as one would assume kurtz in total cost a lot less than bringing other Aussies over as he has his Prem place confirmed and used to sharing living costs with Brady. Am a bit surprised Kennedy was not snapped up after having done his maiden UK season, also having been Sheffields rider of the year as must have shown something to warrant that title. Looked good in his overtake of both Wells & Pickering in the on line video I saw. Can't help thinking they have said near enough yes to Keleher subject to how the Aussie Champs go which so far not well with his injury but he hopes to be back for 4th round on Thur. He has professional looking website - seems to have decent sponsors and even uses flashy computer to tune his bikes looking at his FB page. Not totally convinced but if part of his costs covered by decent sponsors it may reduce cost plus he said he is ready for UK a while ago. Not so young at 25/26 but he did leave the sport for a while then came back. Have read he has potential and his scores in some of the regional meetings have been ok. Will be interesting to see which way Poole go on these last 2 riders.

Kurtz you know you will get your 5 to 5.5 av as that is what he is. It then comes down to who is the better reserve - Hume or Bowtell. Maybe split opinion ?? Not a lot between the two but Bowtell was excl or retired more than Hume was last season. points wise arguably similar level. Kurtz seemed the obvious when Hansen & Bjerre said no. Believe he shared with Brady at one of Middlo's accommodations last few seasons. Question is with Brady now at BV is he moving North and with Todd now at Sheffield in Prem are they both moving out to share somewhere to live up North. Maybe Todd doesn't want a club all the way down here. So this begs the question, are Poole looking at other options like Aussie/s. One Aussie 4 pointer would give them the pick of whats left from a N/L rider H/L perspective (well the 4 I named that is in earlier post). Or a Euro/Scand 5 pointer plus one decent N/L H/L - Champ reserve like Morley/Wood/Hume/Bowtell. I am taking a more statistical view in that I would expect from our 3 H/L (with the expected ups and downs they will all have) say 26/27 points as an av (based on current av) which means we need our other 4 riders to pull 20/21 points to get us a win. If the H/L do score plenty more then less pressure further down the team. Whichever way we go there will be risks with 2 x 4 pointers already signed. That's why for me those last 2 riders are important as I can see us wanting strong reserves to counter other teams who will get higher from a top 4/5 like say Leic/Redcar. I can't help thinking the Ford's may be thinking similar as history at Poole over the last few years tells us that your top 3 rarely click together on the same night and its further down you look to help get you over the line. That factor applies whichever league you are in.

Yes all 3 are N/L heat leaders or Champ reserves and I am not denying that or dismissing. But surely Poole have a responsibility to fill that 8.97 to the best of their ability. Especially with their first season in Champ and wanting to no doubt show most that they are capable of fielding a prospective title winning side. Just as the likes of Leic/Redcar have. My view is that having 2 decent and relatively young Aussies such as Gilmore/List/Keleher/Kennedy (if we exclude Hook/Rew), they may combined score more than say a Danish unknown on 5 and a N/L H/Leader. Just my opinion of course. It could be that a decent young Aussie and a N/L heatleader is another option. It then comes down to who would you have between say Morley/Wood/Hume/Bowtell or even Kinsley. We should go for the one who has the highest av with the points we have available. My view is that having seemingly missed out on Hansen & Bjerre, the stronger reserve pairing we can put together the better as this is an area we could really harvest some points to compensate the fact some other teams will have a stronger top 5 with 2 weaker reserves (or inexperienced young Brits still finding their way). I have said before that being agonisingly short of 9 points left by 0.03 of a point is frustrating as it reduces the option of being able to sign a 5 point rider from the continent and say a young Aussie on a 4. It could be of course that Poole have NO intention of signing 2 Aussies and plan say an Aussie and the best N/L heat leader they can get from what is left available which is near enough what I have named if you look at all the stats available.

Of course it ultimately comes down to which Aussies. There are a good few who imo not worth going for as been around a while and will never make it in our league.

The Australian connection is partly in regards to what riders are left available as the ship has near enough sailed on most options available. Plus the seemingly door closing on preferred options Hansen & Lasse Bjerre. For me its weighing up what are best options available on the 8.97 points left. Kurtz (a steady 5 pointer period) & a N/L rider (Hume/Bowtell/Kinsley) - Or a 5 point Continent relatively unknown (who probably would struggle to get 5) plus a N/L heat leader i.e Morley/Wood/Hume. The other option as said before is 2 Aussies on 4. I see it that both could score decent points at reserve plus if young promising Aussies we could have 2 decent assets long term, and with Poole's track record of bringing along decent talented Aussie youngsters one would hope that in 2/3 years at least one of them improves a lot and even if the second one is only a 5.5 to 6 point rider by then then for me it is worthwhile. I would think if it was 2 young Aussies going into the main team then yes could be difficult, but both would be at reserve and if you look at some of the Aussie talent then in my view they could do well against the many N/L reserves/young relatively inexperienced Brits who are finding their way.

True. Maybe there is a real left field signing we have not considered although personally I would be surprised. Having trawled through all the stats I sure cannot come up with anyone other than another Aussie in Kurtz who I don't think is a signing of choice, even if he was interested. Besides that nothing in the UK stats jumps out as a progressive option. Wouldn't mind a World Class U21 young rider who has proved it on the World U21 stage like a Hansen/Kvech/Jeppeson but somehow don't think it will happen. That would leave a relatively unknown European/Scandinavian who would probably struggle to score a 5 point av and then we are left with 3.97 for a N/L heat leader. Feel free to come in with any potential riders I may have missed. The Poole promotion want to keep their cards close to their chest but nothing stopping us supporters airing our views on possibilities. It may well be there are other 5 pointers out there but in the right combination with a N/L rider is another question.

As an after thought on Zaine Kennedy. If you visit his Facebook page and scroll back to 13th August, you will see him in a race V Wells and Pickering. He overtook both of them from behind to win and was all action. He was also voted Sheffield's rider of the year in his first season in UK. I assume he was not invited back due to Sheffield moving into Prem. When you look at that race on its own - the rider of the year plus some decent perfomances in his few meetings in Aus on borrowed equip over the last 6 weeks, then you ask yourself the question would he maybe be a decent signing. On a 4 one would perhaps argue yes if he could have decent equip and some reasonable sponsorship. Jordan Stewart was only on 4.09 when he finished his first UK season in Champ in 2018. Now he is one of the hotter property Aussies for Redcar & now signed Swindon.

For me Greaves came on the scene in 2013 and in his first few seasons looked like a promising rider with potential. In 7 seasons with plenty of double up and even trebling up some years he for me has never really pushed on and is what he is, which is a steady 4 to 4.5 Champ reserve and that is what you will get. If he was any good or was showing plenty of potential don't you think one of the geographically more suited Northern clubs would have signed him ?? Poole don't just want to sign riders to make up the numbers in my opinion. If you sign some really decent young Aussies who have shown potential - Let say just for this discussion Gilmore and List or even Keleher or maybe even Kennedy you are potentially signing assets with a possible future. Certainly in Aussie in the last month or so all 4 I have named would turn over Greaves just as they have turned over riders such as Brennan/Smith and the other odd N/L riders as well as a Young promising Pole and a Dane who went down there for the Winter. I would rather have 2 young Aussies with potential taking a longer term view from both a results and asst value going forward. I think this is a good a season as any for them to come to UK as the strength of lots of the N/L reserves and young UK riders is for many still in its infancy and these young Aussie guys should easily hold their own against most of them. Most of these young Aussies have been taking on older and more established riders and beating them so have been getting valuable experience. Jed List maybe came over a bit too early and Scinthorpe got rid of him far too early, but he has shown in Aussie this season he can mix it and a 5 ride maximum against most of the young Aussies (except Gilmore who got injured in the meeting) and only just lost out to Hook in the final where he missed the break but made up ground and just failed to overtake on the final lap. The one thing that concerns me about these young promising Aussies is if they decide to miss out UK and go straight to POL where they can double up in DK. Seems a few looking at that route. Lidsey did it and went straight into Prem when ready and Rew taken similar route and so will Hook after he finishes school in 2020 and then goes direct to POL for 2021. Still would not dismiss Kennedy coming over again as he was not happy he was not invited over for 2020 having done an ok first season and only 21 still.

If only . The drop to Champ means his GSA would increase by 1.5 or 1.6 conversion from Prem which is above what we have left points wise for our last 2 riders and also above what we would have for one rider. I think that as long as he can get rides in POL on a Sunday (and he has signed again for his team in 2020) and also in DK, then I think he will stay with Prem only until his diary (and maybe his wallet) starts to empty a bit more.

Think their plans went par shaped when Hansen finally said no and then Bjerre also it seems said no as not doing UK in 2020 (allegedly). As said in my last post with 8.97 it means either 2 Aussies on 4 each(what is left that is or on the young rider front who is interested in coming over). Or you have Kurtz plus say Hume/Kinsley/Bowtell as the likes of Morley/Woods are too high to accommodate. The fact that none of the first 3 have been named by any of the other 11 teams indicates they were not wanted elsewhere (at this stage). Maybe later if/when teams start to drop riders after the first couple of months. Me personally would like to see 2 of the good young up and coming Aussies who have some decent form. They should hopefully beat more than lose to N/L quality riders and probably most of the young finding their feet Brit youngsters who are now Champ reserves. That partly offsets the disadvantage of having 2 other 4 pointers in the team. I can't see the point of having a young unproven Dane come in on a 5 as most of them struggle and don't get anywhere near their assessed av plus it means we only have 3.97 left which just below the 4 we need for another Aussie so you are forced to use a N/L rider. I would rather have 2 talented young 4 point Aussies with a view of poss having another maybe long term World class star of the future (like a Gilmore ?) or one that is maybe just short of World class but can do it in both our champ and Prem long term. There is a lot to be said for having a top 5 like Leic/Redcar with a bit weaker at reserve. But Poole did not choose that route so need to compensate where they can and for me 2 good young Aussie reserves would hopefully compensate at reserve where they could do plenty of damage. especially against the other teams not so good reserves.Just my opinion of course.

Most of the best ones already signed elsewhere. I am talking about talented YOUNG British riders. Would perhaps work if there was a decent 6 pointer willing to sign, but it seems there is not. Only Todd Kurtz left imo and he is a 5 pointer not progressing and that's even if he wanted to sign. For me Poole have to sign the best riders they can from the 8.97 they have left. 2 promising young Aussies in the reserve slots would partly compensate where they may lose out from having in effect 4 x 4 point riders outside the top 3. Plus with a view to the future if signed as assets.

Positive spin on a not so clever situation. Most the decent Aussies already signed up. The few that are left in this competition certainly will not hold their own in our league imo. Maybe Keleher but even he was injured after one pointless ride in abandoned first round - second round fell excluded and injured in first ride and didnt ride in round 3 today. So not much to go on but if anything like Medsen then no chance imo as Medsen has beaten nothing and doesn't even look on the pace imo. Maybe they need to look closer at the one meeting Aussie U21 later this month. I am sold on Gilmore who is recovering from a broken wrist incurred in a meeting 5th Nov and I am not even sure he will ride as seems to have missed out on Aussie main champs and only one of 3 reserves although didnt turn up for first 3 meetings so assume still recovering. Hook plans to finish school this year and then doesnt plan Uk as will base in POL for 2021 season. Kind of excludes him. Leaves imo - Kennedy (not even riding in Aussie Champs but at least did his first UK season last year) - Jedd List who probably better mentally for 2020 and only 18 or maybe Keynan Rew - 17 in April and signed by Leszno nursery club Steiner just like Gilmore. Was badly injured in 2019 but due back in DK and POL in 2020. Maybe will ease his way ack so perhaps not looking to do UK next season. The availability is kind of narrow imo on who is available that is decent enough with potential other that say Gilmore and Kennedy or List. Keleher is a risk in mid twenties having left and then come back to the sport, but he does seem to have decent backing and happy to big himself up. Talk is one thing - performance is another. Alreadysaid on social media he wants UK in 2020.

Don't forget that Poole have been in Prem for years where most of this talent could not qualify for a place due to min requirement to make a Prem team slot. The team have invested in their first season in Champ in 4 Brits (if you incl Nielsen as a Brit). The Promoters & the Supporters want a competitive team in this first season in Champ. Most of the up and coming talent has already been signed up with other teams. It is the responsibility of Poole to maximise the points they have left to put out a team that can compete for the Champ finals.

Question. Do you think we could end up signing an additional 2 x 4 point Aussies considering the current situation ?? I ask because if we do only have 8.97 left then it kind of kicks into the long grass the poss of signing a 5 point European rider plus a 4 point Aussie imo.

This lad has passed me by to be honest. I tend to look more at the youngsters who are already on the scene and 16 plus such as List/Hook/Rew etc, plus others ready to maybe jump to the next level such as Gilmore/Zach Cook. Browns FB page indicates he is going the right way though.

I may be wrong, but I think even Poole are stumped on what to do next with allegedly 8.97 left for 2 riders. Bjerre and a N/L heat leader seemed the obvious move after Hansen allegedly couldnt find a mechanic (and whatever other reason having apparently said he wanted to come over). With Bjerre allegedly saying no and not supposedly riding UK they are a bit up in the air. Todd Kurtz (while not my choice as not improving) could have been a safe option plus a N/L rider at reserve. ut his GSA with 2.5% reduction for his N/L days = 5,29 only leaves 3.68 only allowing say Hume or Bowtell who are reasonable N/L H/L who MAY hold there own against other N/L reserves. There sure are risks signing another 2 Aussies, but seems little in way of options available. Get the impression no young established World class 21 or under Euro riders want to come in on a 5 as one would think they would have been signed by now. There are perhaps not Word Class Danes etc but I think they would struggle to get their 5 assessed av and leaves us yet again just short of a 4 balance meaning we can't sign an Aussie (unless one with UK Family connection to allow the 2.5%). Meaning again maybe only another N/L option which would incl the above plus Morley. Having 2 Aussies may make us a bit stronger at reserve but also pressure on the one in the main team. We could end up with 3 H/L plus 4 x 4 pointers (2 assessed) which means we don't use up that last 0.97 plus arguably leaves us weak in the tail if one doesn't hit the ground running. A real conundrum for Poole as history tells us from our Prem days the last few years that it isn't that often that your 3 so called H/L all score big in each meeting on the same day. Why do I think that Keleher is nailed on (providing he does not bomb out completely in the 5 round Aussie Champ), but who else besides him wants to come over. Kennedy we know seems gutted nobody wants him back this year, and then what of the young riders Gilmore (my first choice) - Hook/List /Rew (just back from bad injury in POL last early May and recently announced signed again for Leszno nursery team as also Gilmore - plus signed up in DK again. The question I suppose is 1) Do any of them wan to come over and 2) Do Poole want to bring over a really promising one and if so which one of those available. My choice would be Gilmore who has shown World title wining class in the very young rider class and also did very well in the few meetings he rode for Steiner in POL Junior league last season. Looks on the up and arguably the right age to push on. Of course any one of Hook/List & Rew could push on but is it maybe a year or two too early for them. Rew I doubt as still only 16 I think and already said he has contracts signed for Steiner in POL & in DK for 2020. Maybe wants to ease his way back in after the nasty injury wiped out his 2019 season from May and think maybe still not back yet. As for Hook & List they look closely matched on recent form so not much between them on recent form. List went thru 5 rides unbeaten in recent U21 meeting but then Hook won the final and held off List under a lot of pressure.

Jeppesen has potential for sure and just 3 days short of being 22. Considering Hansen was a problem (we are told due to problems getting a mechanic) and could it be similar with Jeppesen also maybe a question of lack of sponsers ?? I am just guessing but he would have been an obvious choice when Hansen allegedly blew out having originally said he wanted to come over. It could be money again of course as with all the flying in and out costs - mechanic - equip - sponsors - accommodation etc and with Poole's allegedly tight budget (we assume), maybe it was considered but became a non starter ??. You could argue similar maybe with other promising up and coming Euro stars who would have been on a 5 like Young but exciting looking Jan Kvech the Young Czech who burst on to the World U21 scene big time in 2019. For me Keleher in main body is a risk. He has good backing/sponsors it seems and bigs things up on his social media, but is he really another Josh Mac/Zane Kennedy but without any experience on UK tracks which at least both of them have one season. We are already exposed in one position with Nielsen who I see more of a guy to go in and out of reserve as one of our reserves hopefully bangs in plenty of points against especially the N/L reserves named so is an ideal switch (plus Josh finished at number 2 at Sheffield end of 2019). If you look at Leicester they have a really decent top 5 plus 2 weak reserves who could improve or be replaced but the top 5 will hold their own. We have a top 3 plus 2 x 4 pointers with only 8.97 left leaving us open one way or another imo. Rumours on here indicate the Fords are seeing how Aussie Champs but if you dig deeper as i did the options are very limited with not even Gilmour in any of the 5 meetings, as only one of 3 reserves and has been injured the last month or so. Get the impression the Bjerre knock back has knocked their plans if you also consider the Hansen issue as well.

More than offset no doubt by those the club are getting in from rider assets staying in Prem with other clubs this coming season. I would love to see 2 young Aussies come in on top of Josh Mac. Problem is are Poole looking for a league winning team or are they looking to build an asset base and have these young Aussies with a view to the future. Say for example we signed Keleher (who seems the obvious choice of what is openly available and probably the fav based on his comments about ready to do Uk )and then combine with any one of Kennedy (personally doubt he would be the choice) or one of the up and coming youngsters such as Gilmore/Jed List or another young up and coming 17 year old Jacob Hook. Hook just beat List in an exciting Final U21 meeting recently and both look potential young talents as List only recently turned 18 in Nov. If you factor in an exciting looking Gilmore at 19 - plus he is signed for next 2 years by Steiner (POL Lge 2 - Leszno's nursery club) - plus he did well in the few meetings he rode for them in 2019 when on a short visit to Europe. Would the problem not be that we would have a long tail with Nielsen/Josh Mac plus another 2 Aussies ??. Some riders with poss exciting futures but we could pay dearly in some meetings and in our attempt to make the play offs. The flip side is we only have (to my knowledge based on the official final GSA's) 8.97 left anyway which means we cant sign a 5 pointer and a 4 pointer anyway (by 0.03) which kind of narrows the options. As for the comment from someone about Todd Kurtz plus say Hume, I personally think that will be more of an enforced situation on what's left available as Kurtz is the near enough only established Champ rider (besides Bjerre) not to have signed for a Champ team. Not an easy one as comes down to do you want to see 2 young Aussies with potential to improve or a steady 5 pointer (which is all Kurtz is) plus a N/L rider to squeeze into the 8.97 left available. Of course the other BIG question on the Aussies is do they want to come over (besides Keleher/Kennedy who are 26/21) when so young. We know List only lasted a few weeks in 2019 before being emptied but he was only 17 and maybe a bit unfair as perhaps not ready and so far from home. He looked fast in the U21 meeting going 5 rides unbeaten and only just lost to Hook in the Final.

Looking at the 4 round Aussie Champs there is realistically only 2 riders to choose from. The others are either Prem riders or Holder Snr. Of the remaining there is only Keleher (may or may not be ok but at 26 having returned to the sport thre would be reservations and he has mainly been beating inferior level riders). Medsen who I think is not as good as Keleher and Morrison who arguably is not good enough period. The only other would be Gilmore but disappointingly he was only named as one of 3 reserves over the 4 meetings. He has been injured and may well be focusing on the single meeting Aussie U21 title which is only one meeting and has to overcome Lidsey going for his third title. Gilmore having signed in POL for Leszno nursery club for the next 2 years would be my choice IF he were available to come over at 19. The obvious one has to be Keleher who has openly stated on social media he is ready for UK. Poole have one big problem with this in that if he (or another Aussie) came in on 4 it only leaves 4.87 which is virtually nothing left for a decent rider, meaning almost certainly we have to go down the N/L rider route (or what is available) meaning a long tail for the team which could cost them. I just wish they could have convinced Lasse Bjerre to have signed on what looks like a false low AV as he has been a 7 to 8.5 rider in the 6 seasons prior to last season.

Maybe they are checking back on the Ancestry.co.uk site to check if there is someone in there somewhere . Suppose patience is the what word while they check who may/may not be available to finish those 2 last slots.

One Aussie I would like to see in our team is Matthew Gilmore who looks best of the young crop coming out. Only 19 has already showed flashes in his short flying trip to POL in 2019. Has won a World youngster title in Europe and is already signed up for Leszno Nursery team for the next 2 years. Is he ready for Uk yet. Well if POL willing to accept him with open arms you sometimes have to take a punt. A similar route to Lidsey maybe.

Andersen not for me. At 27 not really progressing and arguably we might as well sign Kurtz and get a better quality reserve. Think Kurtz may also get 2.5% reduction having ridden in old N/L but not 100% sure. Still wouldn't want either option. There was a rumour not long ago that Haertel might sign for KL or Ippo (his previous Uk team) in Prem but havent heard any more. Is he that good?? as we didnt get a real chance to see although he only achieved a 4 in those matches he did ride. Think there are better 5 point young foreigners but like everything, do any of them want to do UK ?? Think the Ford's have their work cut out on this one which may mean it drags on a while before concluding. It would concern me though like you if we were to end up with a long tail in the team.