waiheke1

Locally promoted I'm sure. But a month ago u would have said it was shaping up as a promoters dream. It's a superb series and the right length imo.

I understand your point, but the issue is that the BSPa have proved themselves incapable of making transparent and reasonable subjective assessed averages. So a conversion of 125% for ekstraliga, 115% for elitseren, 65% for pl, 75% for swddish 2nd tier, 80% for polish 2nd tier and 90% for Denmark is at least transparent. Yes there will be bargains, and riders who are unappealing, but at least it is a level playing field. Above conversions assume 110% weighting for El riders converted averages. I fail to see that 9 is unreasonable for Lindback when compared to 9.5 for aj and 8.8 for kk. Maybe you don't apply the extra 10% to assessed averages, so lindback and Milik would end up similar to zagar at around 8.2. But would it be right for Woffy to be over a point less than Doyle when he averaged nearly the same in 16. Magic would become a 7.2 which is only marginally higher than Kim nilsson. No perfect system, but personally I hold to the view that overseas league performances are a better indicator than outdated El averages or subjective assessed averages. Maybe you do remove 10% and round to the nearest 0.5? Taking that latter approach, is this a better indication (listing only riders "7" or above) Bartosz Zmarzlik 10.00 Tai Woffinden 9.50 Greg Hancock 9.00 Janusz Kolodziej 9.00 Grigoriy Laguta 9.00 Patryk Dudek 9.00 Emil Sajfutdinov 8.50 Martin Vaculik 8.50 Vaclav Milik 8.00 Antonio Lindbäck 8.00 Nicki Pedersen 8.00 Artem Laguta 8.00 Przemyslaw Pawlicki 8.00 Piotr Protasiewicz 8.00 Tomasz Gollob 7.50 Piotr Pawlicki 7.50 Grzegorz Zengota 7.50 Leon Madsen 7.50 Pawel Przedpelski 7.50 Maciej Janowski 7.00 Kenneth Bjerre 7.00 Peter Ljung 7.00 Peter Kildemand 7.00 Rafal Okoniewski 7.00 Rune Holta 7.00

the limit wont be more than 40.5 if those conversions are being used. It would be a farce if Milik, Ellis or Newman come in on those averages. And I would say that regardless of the team involved. Hopefully teams will be required to have 3 Brits.

But tbf, Adam rode over half the season in the main body of the tea, so his average is a lot less inflated than most EDR. He and S Worrall have averaes which actually reflect their performances. Actually, I'd say Ellis should be a 5,5, Newman should be a 4.5, Milik a 9, and Woffy a 10.5. Ellis/Newman using wieghted average based on EL performances, Milik and Tai based on their performances in Poland/Sweden, given that neither raced a full season here in 2016.

The new heat format esstnially has four categories of heats. HL only, HL &2nd strngs, 2nd strngs and reserves, and reserves only. If you are going to remove the two reserve heats becaase they skew averages, then you need to do the same with the HL only heats. That still leaves you in a situation where HL have more difficult "included" heats than 2nd stings, who have more difficult heats than reserves, so figures are still skewed, though you could argue that heat formats have always been slightly skewed. But, what you've done is remove a third of the heats from inclusion in averages. And for some reserves, you've just removed 60% of their heats. For any statistical measure, reducing the population size reduced the meaningfulness of the outcome. The above also ignores the fact that an integral part of a HL or reserves use to their team is their ability to beat riders of the same standard. Removing hears 2 and 12, you could end up in a scenario where a rider who typically scored 5 in the reserve heats and none on the two more difficult heats ends up with a lower average than a reserve who scores 1 point in each rider. Imo, weighting averages makes far,far more sense than exclusing certain heats from the calculations. It's simple to implement, and if you look at SCBs list, it's hard to argue there are any "false" averages in there - perhaps Batch and Schlein, but tbf they were genuinely poor last season.

Except the current heat format does make statistics "lie" as two riders on the same average could have vastly different abilities...

Tbh everything on there is self explanatory, but tells you very little. Appears to have solvency issues, but in the absence of cash flow,p&l or statement of movements in equity you can't come to any meaningful conclusion. For example, the poor current ratio could theoretically be the result of payment of a significant cash dividend to the shareholders. Unlikely, but a balance sheet on its own is very little use to get meaningful understanding.

prett similar to what i proposed, though i set the limit at u21 as i don't think there are sufficient decent riders u20. I'd say PL should be required to have an u21 and an u23 reserve. the incentive to bring in a young brit would be them coming in on a 2 if they had not ridden EL previously. Brits u30 coming in at half their PL average though??? i can see plenty of riders making sure they stay just under 6.5 to ensure they got a team place based on that. Looking at the draft teams above, I can't see many EL standard Brits missing our on places. Maybe Barker and Sarjeant?

just examples of teams that could be built. Milik was one of the top performers in the Polish league, but I agree he is unatttractive on that average. But. I think using genuinely earnedaverages is much better than subjective "assessed" averages. Janowski I agree, but who else can KL get as number one - cant see Puk back with the Polish restriction on leagues in place. Who else is out there? Teams are going to struggle to nail down genuine number ones. You could equally say Woffy is unlikely to return to the UK. Stead still performed pretty well in the PL, adn rides KL well, but could certainly be swapped with any number of riders.

Not sure they are that high tbh. Essentially a HL will have their actual EL average increased by 10%, which reflects that they have been riding in a heat format which pits them predominantly against other HL, and also allows for team building to a figure of 42.5 (as all teams will come in close to 42 over a season). Greg Laguta has consistently been one of the best performed riders in Poland/Sweden, so i think it is fair that he is on a par with AJ. With Lindback, I don't think you can read must into one performance. A better barometer is surely a whole season ridden in Poland/Sweden. SCB assumed Bjerre would come in on his 2015 average. My view is that 2016 performances is a better indicator of form. similarly riders like Woffy and Milik come in on much higher averages than if you took their existing EL averages. I believe that SCBs figure is also before the 10% he agreed would make sense to add to allow building a a 42ish limit. Edit: actually i think SCB used a different methodology for the 2015 figures, and already assumed some upwards weighting. My view is that use of those converted averages above should be allied with a reversion to a conventional heat format, re-declarations also bound by the 42.5 limit, all riders can move up from reserve, greensheets revert to being released monthly, first set released after two months and riders must have ridden minimum 3 home and 3 away meetings to get a new average. In case of guests being used, the 3 brits (one u23) team make up must be maintained.

and to illustrate the sort of team strength that could line up with a 42.5 limit using the above, trying to be realistic about who may rider here (have assumed Danes riding top flight in Poland/Sweden/Denmark will not ride UK). Assumes minimum 3 Brits per team, one who must be u23: Belle Vue Woffinder 10.43 Zagar 8.27 Cook 7.63 S Worrall 5.61 R worrall 4.88 J Jacobs 3.33 D Bewley 2.00 42.15 Poole Chris Holder 9.28 Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.80 Chris Harris 7.47 Thomas Jonasson 5.12 Jack Holder 5.10 Kyle Newman 4.59 Ashley Morris 2.00 42.36 Wolves: Fredrik Lindgren 8.17 Jacob Thorssell 7.15 Sam Masters 7.35 Scott Nicholls 6.75 Mikkel B Jensen 5.17 Kyle Howarth 4.22 Max Clegg 3.31 42.13 swindon: Jason Doyle 10.76 Hans Andersen 7.81 Nick Morris 6.39 Josh Grajczonek 6.37 Josh Auty 4.25 Charles Wright 4.14 Stefan Nielsen 2.73 42.44 Coventry: Joonas Kylmakorpi 7.21 Danny King 7.49 Max Fricke 6.81 Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.77 Jason Garrity 5.60 Josh Bates 4.06 Rory Schlein 4.00 41.93 KL: Maciej Janowski 7.93 Robert Lambert 7.46 Simon Stead 6.13 Troy Batchelor 5.68 Nicklas Porsing 5.65 Justin Sedgmen 5.09 Lewis Rose 4.14 42.07 Lakeside: Andreas Jonsson 9.48 Kim Nilsson 7.84 Edward Kennett 7.36 Richard Lawson 6.50 Adam Ellis 5.46 Lewis Kerr 3.76 Ben Morley 2.00 42.40 "8th team" Vaclav Milik 9.12 Grzegorz Zengota 8.24 Patrick Hougaard 6.79 Brady Kurtz 5.61 Lewis Bridger 5.62 Paul Starke 4.32 Liam Carr 2.00 41.70

Ok. So weighted averages, designed to build to a points limit of 42.5 or 43 points. EL averages (includes only riders who raced >10 EL fixtures in 2016). Assumes a 4 point minimum average for foreign riders. I would say a 2 point assessed figure should apply to any U23 British riders who did not ride EL (>10 meetings) in 2016. Jason Doyle 10.76 Niels K Iversen 10.02 Andreas Jonsson 9.48 Chris Holder 9.28 Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.80 Matej Zagar 8.27 Fredrik Lindgren 8.17 Kim Nilsson 7.84 Hans Andersen 7.81 Craig Cook 7.63 Danny King 7.49 Chris Harris 7.47 Robert Lambert 7.46 Edward Kennett 7.36 Sam Masters 7.35 Joonas Kylmakorpi 7.21 Jacob Thorssell 7.15 Max Fricke 6.81 Patrick Hougaard 6.79 Krzysztof Buczkowski 6.77 Scott Nicholls 6.75 Richard Lawson 6.50 Nick Morris 6.39 Josh Grajczonek 6.37 Piotr Swiderski 6.27 Szymon Wozniak 6.04 Nicolai Klindt 5.87 Bjarne Pedersen 5.85 Mads Korneliussen 5.78 Troy Batchelor 5.68 Lewis Bridger 5.62 Brady Kurtz 5.61 Steve Worrall 5.61 Jason Garrity 5.60 Rohan Tungate 5.56 Peter Karlsson 5.47 Adam Ellis 5.46 Mikkel B Jensen 5.17 Justin Sedgmen 5.09 Richie Worrall 4.88 Kyle Newman 4.59 Aaron Summers 4.44 Paul Starke 4.32 Josh Auty 4.25 Kyle Howarth 4.22 Charles Wright 4.14 Lewis Rose 4.14 Josh Bates 4.06 Davey Watt 4.00 Kacper Woryna 4.00 Rory Schlein 4.00 Kai Huckenbeck 4.00 Lewis Kerr 3.76 Joe Jacobs 3.33 Max Clegg 3.31 James Sarjeant 2.94 Robert Mear 2.81 Stefan Nielsen 2.73 Carl Wilkinson 2.65 And riders who did not ride >10 meetings in the EL in 2016, and thus have a converted averaged based on scores in Poland and Sweden (top two tiers), Danish top flight and British Premier League. The only notable rider I can think of missing is Smolinski, where an assessed average would be needed, I’d say a 7 would be about right. Have listed all riders with a converted average >5. Bartosz Zmarzlik 11.00 Tai Woffinden 10.43 Greg Hancock 9.99 Janusz Kolodziej 9.98 Grigoriy Laguta 9.69 Patryk Dudek 9.67 Emil Sajfutdinov 9.17 Martin Vaculik 9.16 Vaclav Milik 9.12 Antonio Lindbäck 9.03 Nicki Pedersen 9.00 Artem Laguta 8.79 Przemyslaw Pawlicki 8.73 Piotr Protasiewicz 8.63 Tomasz Gollob 8.34 Piotr Pawlicki 8.32 Grzegorz Zengota 8.24 Leon Madsen 8.03 Pawel Przedpelski 8.00 Maciej Janowski 7.93 Kenneth Bjerre 7.85 Peter Ljung 7.75 Peter Kildemand 7.68 Rafal Okoniewski 7.66 Rune Holta 7.58 Timo Lahti 7.33 Tomasz Jedrzejak 7.31 Pawel Miesiac 7.26 Andzejs Lebedevs 7.22 Michal Szczepaniak 7.16 Adrian Miedzinski 7.12 Krystian Pieszczek 7.11 Robert Miskowiak 7.11 Jakub Jamrog 7.05 Oskar Fajfer 6.87 Linus Sundström 6.76 Maksim Bogdanov 6.74 Magnus Zetterström 6.63 Norbert Kosciuch 6.59 Michael Jepsen Jensen 6.59 Dawid Lampart 6.55 Tobiasz Musielak 6.55 Andriy Karpov 6.53 Mikael Max 6.51 Kasts Puodzuks 6.46 Kacper Gomolski 6.44 Andrej Kudriashov 6.42 Karol Baran 6.38 Tomasz Gapinski 6.19 Renat Gafurov 6.17 Simon Stead 6.13 Jonas Davidsson 6.11 Piotr Swist 6.11 Daniel Jeleniewski 6.08 Sergej Logatjev 6.07 Marcin Nowak 6.03 Pontus Aspgren 6.01 Mikkel Michelsen 5.97 Sebastian Ulamek 5.93 Adrian Gomolski 5.92 Vadim Tarasenko 5.92 Grzegorz Walasek 5.91 Rene Bach 5.90 Ludvig Lindgren 5.84 Krzysztof Jablonski 5.80 Anders Thomsen 5.79 Hubert Legowik 5.72 Nicklas Porsing 5.65 Miroslaw Jablonski 5.62 Kevin Wölbert 5.55 Viktor Kulakov 5.52 Mikkel Bech Jensen 5.51 Kenneth Hansen 5.50 Marcin Rempala 5.48 Damian Balinski 5.46 Maciej Kuciapa 5.46 Ryan Fisher 5.44 Rasmus Jensen 5.44 Ernest Koza 5.42 Tomasz Chrzanowski 5.40 Kamil Brzozowski 5.40 Zbigniew Suchecki 5.40 Rafał Karczmarz 5.38 Oskar Ajtner-Gollob 5.38 Mathias Thörnblom 5.37 Ricky Wells 5.35 Oskar Bober 5.34 Artur Czaja 5.32 Edward Mazur 5.31 Mateusz Szczepaniak 5.27 Ulrich Östergaard 5.27 Kevin Doolan 5.26 Fredrik Engman 5.25 David Bellego 5.25 Linus Eklöf 5.23 Nicolas Covatti 5.21 Dominik Kossakowski 5.16 Oskar Polis 5.16 Oliver Berntzon 5.15 Frederik Jakobsen 5.14 Joel Andersson 5.13 Thomas Jonasson 5.12 Jack Holder 5.10 Marcin Jedrzejewski 5.09 Benjamin Barker 5.08 Adrian Cyfer 5.05 Matej Kus 5.01

Can't say ford was the first to exploit loopholes. Got a book ftom the earlyv80s where Ian Thomas says promoters would cone to him and ask him what the loopholes were when they did their team building!

Net worth doesn't necessarily equate to solvency. A company with net assets higher than net liabilities doesn't neccesarily indicate it is not being propped up by a shareholder. Good of the poster to post those network figures, but tbh they are basically meaningless without the details behind them and a p&l.

Adam Ellis. Joe Jacobs. Jason Garrity.

But surely they will race Poland sweden and Denmark. Which would rule out racing uk. Was mjjs statement made prior to the Polish announcement?

Except surely neither killer nor mjj will rude in uk in 2017? Nice looking team though.

Good outside the box thinking. But essentially I think you are diluting the quality of rider, without reducing costs. Not sure the 5k prize find will materially improve the quality of racing, but I suspect losing the world class riders will adversely impact crowds. What's a realistic estimate of costs to stage a meeting exc riders wages? 5k? 10k?

WHY only for edr? The whole reason for the flawed hl list this season was that 2nd strings have inflated averages compared to riders riding as hl. So someone like b kurtz for example has an inflated average compared to chris harris.

Best way to incentivise a new wave is to say they come in on a 2 assessed average imo. I could see both aces and poole potentially going with a 2 pointer if your system was adopted as would allow them to field a genuine hl trio.Saying foreigners can have a minimum 4 average would also help, as it would make the likes of huckenbeck and busk jscobsen less appealing vs a young brit.

Using scbs converted averages: king, garritty, fricke,buzz, joonas, bates,Schlein (also tm). Think some teams may struggle to attract a genuine number one this season.

Agree with most of this. But I'd just say 3 brits, one of whom must be u23. I think the u23 can move up or down based on average nor be "protected."

Yes. But it is simple enough to convert El averages, which are the releant ones here. SCB has done it for every roder who raced El in 16. By far the fairest way.

Scb has published a list of converted averages which works to a team building limit of approx 38.5 in the EL forum.Using that as a basis and assuming minimum 3 brits, Poole could end up with a team of something like: holder kurtz harris Newman kk morris holder.

Was that before or after the Polish announcement?