waiheke1

Ok, 2012 GP season has been, IMHO, excellent so far. The racing has been good to excellent, the NZ GP and Leszno standing out, but the racing in Prague and Gothenburg also much better than previous years. And it looks like being one of the most open title races in years, with 6 riders still very much in the hunt for the crown. The old brigade: Perhaps unsurprisingly, the 4 world champions in the field have figured prominently again, all making at least the semis at every event. Nicki Pedersen currently leads the standings, and is arguably riding the best of any of the field at present. Gollob has at times looked superb, and when riding well has looked better than any other rider, BUT he has also been the least consistent of these riders, dropping points when least expected, arguably because he is the worst gater of the four of them. Crump and Hancock have both looked good without finding top gear yet. It’s hard to see past one of those four being crowned world champion again Hampel: Was my tip to win it this year, after finishing on the podium and being outstanding domestically the last couple of years (I was thinking shades of Hans Nielsen, not that I believe he is close to being as good as Hans). But has been disappointing so far, and even domestically not riding as well as the last couple of seasons. That said, he’s only 12 points of top, one good meeting could see him atop the leaderboard. The young Brigade: I thought at the start of the year one of Holder and Emil ould make the podium this year, but its looking like I picked the wrong one! Emil is my favourite rider to watch BUT unless his gating improves he won’t make the top3 this season. I expect watching Emil is like watching a young Peter Collins – you get the feeling that they won’t win as many world titles as their talent deserves because they can’t bloody gate! Holder had a disappointing NZ GP, perhaps distracted by the birth of his son, but since then has racked up more points than any other rider in the last 3 GPs. I’m expecting him to be the only new face on the podium come end of the season. The Swedes: All three sitting between 7th-`10th very much a “middling”performance so far, and I can only see one of them making the top 8 this year. Jonsson has probably been the biggest disapointment so far, two good meetings and two terrible ones. That said, I’d still expect him to be top Sweede this year, but hishopes of repeating last year’s finish are already looking gone. Lindgren has been consistent in every meeting either scraping into the top8, or finishing just outside. The Swedish GP looked like following that pattern, but two excellent rides saw him take out the title. Perhaps that will kick start hi sseason, but I can see him finishing 9th, which would likely be enough to earn him a WC for next season. Lindback looked very good indeed in Auckland, but has been disappointing since. Until the last round I was expecting him to finish the series ahead of Lindgren, my view on that has reversed, and his domestic form has also been poor. The Danes: Have been mediocre at best, although not much was expected of Hans or Bjarne anyway. It’s hard to see any of them making the top8 at present, and nor does it seem likely any will be offered a WC for next year if they miss out – possibly Bjerre if his form picks up in the rest of the season, though with the quality of the Danes outside the series, it seems likely it would be offered to a “fresh face.” The Danes really need a good performance on their home soil this weekend if they are to have a realistic chance of catching the top 8. The rest: Harris has been frankly atrocious, even by his usual slow starting (in both senses of the word) GP form. He’s been slow from the gate, machinery poor, and hasn’t been picking people off from the back. It’s very hard to see him being offerred a WC next season, that surely will go to Tai (who will hopefully accept – tbh I think he’s unlikely to make the top 3 in the Challenge, but perhaps if his qualifying is hindered by injury he will re-think his earlier statement about turning down a WC). Peter Ljung is in some ways the opposite of Harris, as his gating at least is excellent – if Speedway was run over 1 lap I have no doubts he would be top 8. The problem is that he probably gates on average at least second, but finishes on average 3rd – going backwards as races go on. So, my picks at this stage: 1st Nicki Pedersen 2nd Holder 3rd Crump Rest of the top 8: Hancock, Hampel, Gollob, Emil, Jonsson Outside: Lindgren, Lindback, Bjerre, Andersen, Pedersen, Ljung, Harris (Note: a glance at the table on the SGP predictions thread will show that thes epredictions are likely to be very wrong!) For next year: Based on current form I can see one Swede (Lindgren), one Dane (NKI) and one Brit (Tai) being offered spots for next season, with the other place going to Darcy (if he should fail to qualify). If any of the above should make it through the challenge, I could see places going to Lindback/THJ for Sweden, or Bjerre/one of the youngsters for the Danes. If Darcy or Tai qualify, prime candidates for the WC spots would be any of the young Poles (perhaps Dudek or a Pawlicki) or G Laguta. My Favourites to qualify through the challenge at this point would be Ward, G Laguta and NKI in my view, though history would suggest at least one “surprise” packet. But in an ideal world next year’s line up could look something like N Pedersen, Holder, Crump , Hancock, Hampel, Gollob, Emil, Jonsson, Lindgren, NKI, Tai, Ward, G Laguta, Dudek, and any one of Bjerre/Lindback/Pawlicki/THJ/ which I think is a pretty tasty looking line up.

Billy Hamil?

Nicki's had loads of second chances???? Yes, he's been given a permanet WC the last two seasons, but the first of those was after a season written off with injury, and I don't think anyone could argue against him being one of the world's top 15 riders last year. Hardly "loads of second chances" is it? Nicki won't go down high up in history? Well, I know he's proably regarded as the worst rider to win three or more world titles, but that's still pretty high up - must be ranked one of the top 20 of all time. If he wins this year - I'd say at this stage he would be slight favourite though anyone of the top 6 could still win - he joins a group of only 6 riders to have won 4 or more world titles, and would have to be ranked one of the top 10 riders of all time in my view. Yes, he rides hard and to win - are you telling me Nielsen didn't, Olsen didn't, Penhall didn't? How many controversial World Final incidents was Hans in? Penhall - look at the way he took Nielsen out fuirst bend in 81, or the infamous Carter indcident in 82. Olsen in 77, Collins describes having to let him through (due to his broken leg), otherwise he knew Olsen would have knocked him off, and that would have been his night all over. People complain that there are no characters in sport today, but then complanin when they do get a "patomime villain" like Nicki. As for the Wc spot - well NKI is certainly the form Danish rider outside the series, so I guess he can feel hard done by. BUT... you'd have to fancy him to either qualify through the challenge this season, and if not be offsred one of the permanent WC if he continues this form, so that should compensate for any disapointment. As others have said, he's had WC chances in the past, why not give one of the youngsters a go this time - I'm pretty sure MJJ won't be disgraced.

Personally, I'd be tempted to include Simmons and the Mighty Mort in the English top 10 - Jessup and Havelock must come close too. For the Swedes, possibly Bernt Persson and Jan ANdersson worthy of consideration (ahead of Sjosten and Gustaffson?) ROW - Kai Neime? The Americans - Havelock/Hamil very hard to separate, arguably Hamil a better rider at his peak, but Hancock has the better longevity and an extra world title - that would probably see him edge it for me. Shawn would have to rank higher than Kelly for me - missed out on the world title only by a run off, won countless major WC qualifying meetings, was the best poerformer for the USA in internationals over the course of the 80s, and under a GP system would have been in the mix for the title on a number of occasions. Kelly tbh never achieved anywhere near what his ability could have allowed him to. Boogaloo would have to be ahead of Preson for me (unless it was round Hyde Rd where he was awful!) - two World Pairs titles, a mainstay of the US 80s test side, a top BL performer for the first half of the 80s - arguably the best rider never to make a World Final? Also - if you have Jack Milne, you possibly need to also have Cordy in the top 10 as well? The Aussies - peopel pushing for inclusion of Airey, Boulger and Biggs - but who do you leave out to accomodate them - Sidney would have a fit if you left out Crump senior! And I really don't think Gundersen can rank ahead of Nielsen - Hans had a better record in World Finals, qualifiers, internationals, BL, BLRC , not to mention how many titles he would have won under a GP system!

In a way that's good news, hopefully means he will acceptance wildcat for next year's gp , which I believe he said he would decline if he missed out in qualifying In a way that's good news, hopefully means he will accept the wildcard for next year's gp , which I believe he said he would decline if he missed out in qualifying

Interested on the reasoning for j trump being so low on realist of auspices as I'd say he has to be one of the top 10 of all time for all nations. also wonder why Hans only 3rd on your list of danes? agree on muller, an incredibly talented rider, who had he raced regularly in Britain and/or concentrated on speedway would have achieved much more and no doubt be far more respected. I was there in norden when he cleaned up, but look also at the riders he finished ahead of at Wembley in 81 - he was a very very good rider.

Emil Hampel Gollob Crump

wash your mouth out Sidney! He was class for the Aces too. Holds the record for most NZ national titles, top scored in NZ's only WTC triumph, 3rd in the BLRC in 1980, and spearheaded the Aces 1982 BL title winning team - he has to be in the top5! My lists: NZ 1 Mauger 2. Briggs 3. Moore 4. Shirra 5. Ross England 1. Peter Collins 2. Craven 3. Lee 4. Parker 5. Loram Australia 1 J Crump 2. J Young 3. Adams 4. V Duggan 5. Sanders Would expect both Holder and Ward to make this list by the end of the decade Denmark 1 Nielsen 2 Olsen 3 Gundersen 4 N Pedersen 5 Jan O Pedersen USA 1 Penhall 2 Hancock 3 Hamil 4 Milne 5 Ermolenko (Autry and S Moran just missing out) Sweden 1 Fundin 2 Rickardsson 3 Michanek 4 Knutsson 5 P Jonsson Poland 1 Gollob 2 Hampel 3 Plech 4 Jancarz 5 Woryna Russia 1 Plechanov 2 Emil 3 Samorodov 4 kurilenko 5 Chlynovski

that awkward moment when your sarcasm is so advanced that people actually think that you are stupid...

start of the season i though Hampel, and even leading into the swedish GP I thought so, but he's just not looking as good as the last two years. At the moment I'd have to say Nicki Pedersen is looking the best rider in the world, so he'd be my pick, but there are still 6 riders with realistic chances. I'll go: 1 N Pedersen 2 C Holder 3 Crump

you've misunderstood impartial one's proposal Falcace - re-read his suggested point system and i'm sure you'll understand what he means.

actually seven, if you include Chris Morton. This season,on a like for like basis (i.e. including bonus points) I think there will be two - Holder and Ward. But... if the same heat format had been in effect in 1978, and gate positions were fixed, I think at most two would have averaged over 10. And, given that there were twice as many teams in 1978, I guess that proves that there is a greater concentration of top riders in the EL these days....

but if you compare with say Moto GP or Formula I, in those events there is only one race per GP. So the winner of that one race is the winner of the GP, and understandably, gets the most points. Speedway GP, the riders have five to seven races, the best rider on the night (i.e. the one who does the best in all races) is likely to finish with the most points, BUT will not neccesarily be the rider who wins the final, and hence the GP. I have no issue with this, Of course, another way to look at it would be to say that "qualifying" in Formula I is the same as the first 20 heats of the Speedway GP, but I'm not sure you can really compare the two like that. the counter-example to your suggested points system though would be that a rider could win 72 races and finish 2nd in 12 others over a season, and miss out on the world title to someone who won 12 races, finished second in 60 and last in 12. both are equally unlikely IMHO, and i don't belive "extreme" examples are the best way to prove/dis-prove a particular system.

even with Morris, GB would not have made the top 2

and have the oppotunity to score more points by doing well in the semi (and final) not really a valid analogy. And if anything, its the opposite. Under the current system, the rider who gets the most points (goals) gets closer to the title. Under a proposal where the winner of the final gets guaranteed the most points, its like saying Chelsea scored three goals, Man City only got two, but they scored the last goal, so Chelase should take the points (last goal wins like). Personally, I think the current points system is by far the best that there has been, striking the right balance between EVERY RACE counting towards the title, rewarding the best rider on the night, and still having the excitement of a meaningful final on the night. good to see you back IO

Great ride holder!

in 1982 you could have said the same of Denmark... I'd be very surprised if we don't see another aussie take the title before the decade is out. its also worth noting that only about 9 nations have EVER produced a world champion, and all of those nations have had decent chunks of time without producing one. Sweden perhaps have been the most consistent since the war, but that's larely due to the phenomenal Fundin and Rickardson , and even they went 15 years without a wc at one point.

ok, admittedly its still early stages, but at this point its quite possible that Lingren and Bjerre will miss out on GPs next year. The three Danes Bjerre, Andersen and B Pedersen are all struggling, and if there is to be a Danish WC next year, you'd have to think that if he can continue his current form NKI would be in with a strong chance of getting it ahead of Bjerre (can't see B Pedersen or Andersen being offered a WC for next year). The three swedes Jonsson, Lindback and Lindgren are all hovering around the top 8, I can see one qualifying, one getting a WC, and one missing out. At this point in time, I'd tip Jonsson to make the top 8, Lindback to finish 9th and get the WC, leaving Lindgren to miss out. no watch bjerre and/or lindgren make a fool out of me this weekend...

Western Springs. Sure its a bit of a commute from Beds/Bucks, and there's only 1 meeting per season, BUT... this year's was a hell of a good meeting!

Hyde Rd by quite some distance. Also the Shay, Odsal and Western Springs.

As oldace has pointed out, for a period in the 70s England/GB were undoubtably the top speedway nation, cleaning up the WTC and the Pairs. 198 - when England did the "grand slam" would however be the last time it could be said that England "ruled the world." I have a sneaking suspicicion that this sequence may come to an end... Guess you'd offer me pretty good odds then if I'd like to bet on a Pole being world champion before an Englisnhman?

Holder Jonsson Lindback Wild Card THJ

Parsloes - other than 75 & 78, what years do you think Olsen would have won? 72 I'd say a 1-2-3 of Mauger, Olsen, Briggs 73 Michanek, Mauger, Olsen 74 Mauger, Olsen, Michanek 76 Collins, Mauger, Simmons. 77 PC, Olsen, Mauger. 79: Lee, Olsen, Mauger I have Olsen down for 75&78, the next closest I would say 77, because PC would have been riding on one leg for the last three rounds, 79 also a close call, but I think Lee would have won one title, and that was arguably his best year.

Interesting thoughts Dave M, but have to say I disagree. Mauger – I think he would probably have finished on the podium every year from 67-79, but I reckon he would have only finished with 6 or 7 world titles (68-72, 74), so no major increase. Kennett – I don’t think he would have made any rostrum appearances under a GP system. 78 was arguably his best year, but I think the top 3 that year would have been Olsen, Mauger and Simmons. And in fact, I think it’s questionable as to whether he would have actually qualified for the 78 series in the first place. Simmons – I think would have finished third in 76 and 78, can’t think of any other seasons where I would have tipped him for a podium finish. Autrey – I reckon would have come close to top three in 78/79, maybe picked up one medal. Interested to hear your thought son the years you think Mauger would have picked up titles, and Kennet/Simmons/Autry medals.

Hampel Gollob Hancock Nicki Pedersen