szkocjasid

If Klindt is on an 18 point maximum after 6 rides, then of course I would use him in heat 15. My plan however would be to use him earlier, ideally to avoid 3 or 4 on the trot. Potentially use him in heat 4 for Harrison? This would also leave more options later on, depending who is on form?

Statistically you shouldn't want a reserve getting his 7th ride in heat 15. If Klindt is the best Star & gets 7 rides before heat 15, then the 2nd & 3rd best riders get an extra ride. If Klindt is in heat 15, the 3rd best rider doesn't get an extra ride.

Interesting to look at the top 4s home & away averages: Pickering 9.95 / 6.00 J Holder 9.40 / 8.28 C Holder 8.09 / 6.58 Rowe 6.21 / 4.00 The dropped riders are obviously not home specialists! Kerr 5.33 / 5.33 Sedgmen 2.88 / 4.43 Even if Morris & Etheridge prove to be stronger, Sheffield will need to rest to up their away form if they want to win the league!

I guess for your first point Berwick had a number one who wasn't turning up so can understand their choice of signing, while Sheffield didn't have time to see if Morris found form due to the cut-off date. Totally agree with everything in the second part of your post.

Well they're hardly going to do it after the cut-off are they? At least they've given Kerr & Sedgmen time to fund form, but decided it wasn't gonna get any better!

If any rider retires or gets injured after the 75% match point, only guests r/r allowed. As with many rules it's brought in for a reason (stop someone signing just for the play-offs) but causes issues in other scenarios (wanting to replace a genuinely injured rider, but having to use guests instead).

The fact that people would readily believe it's true, shows the faith they have in Schroeck's management. If I had read that about Middlo or Pete Adams, I'd automatically think "it's a joke" so someone got the wrong end of the stick. I found this very easy to believe, based on the many daft decisions Schroeck's made over the last couple of years.

In this situation, wouldn't call it a risk, Trigger has a similar rolling ave to Smith, so they're not basing a change on 1 match. When Glasgow signed Hodder based on 1 good match, when he averaged well below 2.00 all season, sounds more like the scenario you're suggesting. I'd also say Berwick wouldn't be making the signing based on 1 match, because they wouldn't be expecting scores like that every week. Just signing a 3.5 rider, hoping he can reach 4.0? Currently Smith is a 3.5 rider who's dropped below 3.0. Doesn't seem a risk to me.

Had a quick look at the 2025 averages Hagon 3.84 (4.16) Smith 2.76 (3.20) Trigger 3.60 (4.53) This won't show any guest appearances, but shows Trigger was not poor for Plymouth (he upped his starting average) but was dropped because the team on the whole was weak. If Berwick have play-offs aspirations, then Trigger for Smith is a signing they need to make imo

Especially with Glasgow having the weakest reserves (on paper) in the league. Both have upped their averages, but would still look like Tigers weak link. Last night was a impressive by them, Tigers fans will be delighted, but Bandits fans would've been expecting Smith to have the better of them. While play-offs are still possible, I'd give Trigger a shot.

It can change each week, but Workington already had 2 points deducted, so weren't favourites for a top 4 spot (at least in my opinion) so a home defeat was very costly for them. I rated Berwick's chances higher, especially since their changes & a great result at Glasgow, all undone by dropping points at home in the return leg. All the teams bar Scunthorpe & Plymouth can still make the play-offs, but I feel a gap has appeared below the "top 4" & challengers.

Perhaps make the rule clubs don't get a "facility" when a rider races abroad, clubs would have to choose between a rider who puts GB first, or risk having to use a 75% guest all the time?

Have to agree, Klindt doesn't get a ban because Plymouth don't mind being weakened! Turns out their guest did well, but doesn't sit right with me.

Only about 3 points over the points limit lol!

Yeah agree, I'd have Hagon at 2.

With Workington, Berwick & Oxford having a poor day, think the top 4 looks to be, Poole, Glasgow, Edinburgh & Redcar.

If Plymouth aren't allowed a guest for Klindt, would be not get a 28 day ban then?

Yeah, that's an odd one, r/r must be stronger than Thomsen you'd think?

Looking at the August averages, Birmingham will be 8.97 below the points limit!

Kerr's 2025 Prem average is 5.33 (6.20 with bonus points). That's very decent. A couple of poorer matches doesn't mean he's struggled all year. You could argue his Poole average should be much higher, compared to his Sheffield one!

Well JJ won heat 8 & 12, don't know if that proves my point or yours lol!

Actually it could be, if Morris was worse than guest scores!

Heat 7 was the best I've ever seen Kyle Thompson ride, bouncing off the fence to beat Luke Harrison & Jake Allen.

If Birmingham announced that in their press release, no-one could blame them. But they announced it was a mutual decision i.e Edwards wanted to leave, they wanted to keep Hagon. Now Hagon had improved on his Leicester form, but still not the rider Edwards was. Since then Edwards has done brilliantly against Birmingham & made them look even more daft! Maybe his scores are logical, it's easier to get bigger scores riding against Birmingham than for them, due to the strength of the opposition.

Palovaara has a higher average than Cook, so possibly better guest options if he misses any matches.