Aces51

I think Doyle is riding with one eye on keeping fit for the GP's and who can blame him. However, I think he will be in the final and if he is there or thereabouts coming out of the second bend will win it. My top 4, Lindgren Cook Doyle Kurtz If the track is wet, King for Kurtz.

I was thinking it might be for BWD.

The difference is that Newman started the race without goggles, which is contrary to the rules, removing them during the race isn't. So in both instances the rules were broken.

Whatever the reason and I think it was an error made in the heat of the moment when the Pole exceeded the 2 minutes, the fact is that the rules were broken and it should be put right. However, it's Belle Vue and so I'm not expecting anything to happen. Somebody has posted an Instagram message on Facebook this morning that appears to be from T H Jonasson saying he has been booked to ride for Swindon in the second leg on the 22nd.

Of course it was heat 12 and 9 points my mistake. The Swindon reserves outscored our reserves 11-2 but their 1-5 only outscored our top 4, 39-37, which was an excellent away performance. I think with Bewley in the team it would have been very close.

I think we did well. I expected a much bigger defeat without Cook and Bewley. It will be difficult to overturn an 11 point, or even 8 point lead, if heat 14 is amended but not impossible. We could do it if we have a full 1-6 and a decent replacement for Smith if his injury is as reported It certainly looks nasty in that photo.

Thanks for the information. Hopefully, it's something less serious, otherwise he's going to miss the play off semi on Monday. Now seen Rob's post above. Not looking good.

Now Jack Smith has been withdrawn after crashing with BWD in heat 2. It's obviously not going to be our night. I hope Jack is ok and just withdrawn as a precaution.

The actor Jason Done is a Belle Vue fan and was a regular in the drama Waterloo Road. He was seen in many episodes drinking from a Belle Vue mug and reading an Aces programme. Unfortunately, I don't think it ever resulted in an increase in the attendance at the dog track. Good of him to try though.

I didn't know that. Hopefully, for Belle Vue, just trying to make sure he is fit for Monday but not the best sort of match in which to return from injury. Not going to be easy tonight with Fricke saying he is not yet match fit and Bewley missing. Just got to hope we can keep it close but I can see Swindon having a substantial lead for the second leg. We've certainly suffered some misfortunes this last part of the season.

NKI is a rider I enjoy watching. A move back to KL might be just what he needs to rediscover his form. He has not been at his best for the last couple of years so let's hope he thinks a return to the UK is what he needs.

So far as I know, TV companies also take account of those who record and download programmes and I can't imagine that many travelling fans who have BT sport wouldn't have recorded the meeting. I travel a significant distance to the NSS because I prefer to watch the racing live with friends. I watch the recording later which sometimes gives a different insight into what went on.

A not fully fit BWD, the one who scored 8 paid 10 from 4 rides at Peterborough last Sunday, should easily outscore Smith and Etheridge and Liam Carr was very good when he recently rode at the NSS, beating Smith 2-1. We shall see what happens but I will be surprised but pleased if our reserves score anything like as many points as their Swindon counterparts.

According to Skidder1 about 1600-1800. That didn't strike me as good for a play off semi final at Poole. Probably a mix of the weather, home fans expecting to lose and the play off semis no longer attracting big crowds. They've been on TV for years so I don't see that being a factor anymore than it was when there were bigger crowds. As for the reduced price at Swindon, it will be a clinical commercial decision, nothing to do with rewarding fans. They obviously believe that the hoped for increased attendance will give them a bigger profit. I hope they're right, that way everybody wins.

It's going to be an uphill battle with our reserves now likely to be significantly outscored and no cover if any of the 1-5 struggle. Just got to hope he will be back for the play offs but he won't have had any chance to get race fit unless he rides for Glasgow over the weekend.

No Bewley tomorrow. Jye Etheridge guests so going to make it difficult to keep it close.

I agree, understandably that has to be his priority but I think he will do better at home because he knows the track so well that he won't feel he is taking any risks. I assume we have Newman pre-booked just in case Dan isn't 100%.

If Bewley rides and is immediately back to his best I can see this being close. Doyle on his home track will be a different proposition to his recent league performances here and abroad. They are a formidable team to beat at the Abbey but we have a number of riders who do well there. Swindon can do well at the NSS so ideally we need to keep any loss to less than 10, anything less would be good, especially a surprise win.

Crowds weren't too bad at the NSS until, as I said, it was fairly certain we were in the play offs but to be fair the weather hasn't been brilliant since then either and that has probably played a part as well. It's unfortunate because the track seems able to cope with a lot of rain, as was shown at the Colts meeting against Cradley. I guess it will take a while before some fans are convinced that matches are not now called off at the first sign of wet weather.

It wasn't many years ago that the play off semi finals drew large crowds but now it just seems to be the final. Let's hope that fans turn out in larger numbers for the remaining matches. Hopefully, many Wolves supporters will be at the NSS on Monday and vice versa for the second leg. We certainly need it after the drop in crowds once it was clear we were in the play offs.

Cook is 111 but his score will be closer to 333. Interestingly, his away average is better than his home average. One of the reasons we do well away.

To use one previous meeting as a guide is ridiculous. How many times do we see rider's scores vary considerably from visit to visit. Even at home the scores of riders like BWD can show considerable variation partly because riders who are developing their skills tend to be inconsistent. The only reliable guide is to look at scores at a particular track over a period of time, take into account the numerous factors that can influence performance, position in the team, engine problems, the opposition etc and then make an educated guess. Like all statistical analysis you need an acceptable amount of data on which to base an assessment, even then the analysis is no more than a guide.

Having watched Bewley on his last visit to Monmore, when he was passing Wolves reserves for fun, I would prefer him to Newman but only if he is fit. As we saw he thought he would be ok for the U21 final but couldn't complete one lap. Hopefully, he will have recovered completely and won't further aggravate it whenever he comes back.

It all depends on Fricke and Bewley. If Bewley is fit and Fricke is back to his best at the NSS we can win at home by 10 or more and Bewley does well at Monmore, so we can keep it fairly close there. If Bewley isn't fit then he is irreplaceable at the NSS but Newman might almost fit the bill at Monmore.

Hopefully, the one he used at the weekend.