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No evidence on any number. It could have killed 2 million without a lockdown. We just don't know. We have to rely on the medical experts on how we deal with a virus for which we don't have a vaccine. None of us are experts. What I do understand is that it's R (the re-infection rate) which is the critical number. But we have to listen to medical and scientific advice. You're not an expert. Neither am I.

But we do have true evidence now that there isn't a single country that has either 'not locked down' or have a much 'laxer' lockdown that has seen any significant surge in either cases or deaths. In reality, it's actually been the opposite. The justification for the lockdown was we'd see 20 x the cases, 20 x the deaths. Events around the world are showing that simply isn't the case... so we're simply destroying the economy and creating absolutely massive problems down the line (which many simply don't grasp) for what amounts to be very little or no gain at all. Based upon the initial models there was a very strong argument the lockdown was the way to go.... but as more and more data emerges they need to stop modelling on theories and actually look at reality. The problem you will have now is stubborness. The 'experts' will not want to admit they were wrong.. governments will have a hard time coming out saying, well actually, sorry folks, we cocked up here, seems the lockdown doesn't actually help. In reality, in a sensible world they shouldn't be criticised if they did that.. they did what they thought was best and the models showed and erred on the side of caution. Sadly though people turn fast and they'd get a very negative response. PLUS you'd have a section of society who would blame every death thereafter on there not being a lockdown and forget all about those who were dying when there was one. The other factor is... for a lockdown to have any chance to work, it needs to be total.. as it was in Wuhan. However, you simply can't lock down an entire country. Whilst people are still going to work, going to supermarkets etc... and you have idiots breaking the guidelines (not the ones in parks, more the ones having house parties) it simply isn't going to happen. This 'myth' that the lockdown is working because numbers are beginning to stabilise is just that. A myth. That's how viruses work.. indeed it happens every single year without fail. In October you start to see an increase in flu/pneumonia related deaths.. the figure rises and rises quite sharply till in December you hit around 3000 a week dying. That continues for a number of weeks at that level (doesn't rise further like these stupid models keep portraying) before starting to drop down as winter comes to an end. This virus is following the exact same pattern.

There is no true evidence that it would have killed any number. That is the problem. We are dealing with a disease that is not properly understood and every body is playing catch up based on models, assumption, experience and inspired guesses. The top line figures ( one of which estimated half a million deaths ) assumed no action taken at all but of course action is taken but it is a blunt instrument and nobody quite knew in advance how effective it would be. We can’t protect the elderly. They, like everyone else have to exercise good sense and protect themselves. Going on cruises, and taking their camper vans down to Newquay or going to off the gee-gees at Cheltenham, all of which many have done is not really good sense. Unfortunately the government can’t rely on common sense among the population as a whole. They have to work to and advise to the lowest common denominator, and the more stupid the behaviour of the minority the lower the lowest common denominator has to be, even though it is a pain to the rest.

Spot on.. Only had 'the flu' once, around 30 years ago and I remained in bed for a week with two visits from the doctor as there was no chance of me going out to see him.. My then girlfriend told me when I was back on my feet that the she knew I wasnt well when she asked me what I was doing and I told her that i was "washing the pots". And the sink was empty. She decided I wasnt quite fit to drive to work so put me to bed and given the amount of sweating and shaking also decided to phone the emergency doctor. I lost over a stone in a weeks bed rest through sweating.. Since then, as a supermarket manager, whenever anyone calls in sick with "I have this flu that's going around so wont be in today, but I will be in tomorrow" I do laugh....

Watched the documentary it just confirms what I already thought great club,great promotion, great facilities and great fans and if you was a rider why wouldn't you want to ride for them,that's from all the way down here in Plymouth

I have had flu twice in my life I spent at least a week in bed both times and it was about 2wks after that before I was a 100% fit again ,on both occasions I was under 30 yrs old .

Speaking from a London point of view - , If we're at a shopping centre, pub, restaurant or any public event by mid June i'll be astonished. Had the locals not continually ignored guidance we might have had a chance, but no. Not a pups chance of football resuming here before maybe July or August, let alone something like speedway outside of town. Annoying, but reality i think.

We have 'flu vaccines to try to aid with that - we don't have a Covid-19 vaccine. Surely you understand that key and absolutely massive difference? It's why it's not necessary to lock down every time we have a 'flu outbreak, but it is during the current outbreak of Covid-19. It's very different. Of course, the 'flu is mutating every single year and therefore sadly, there are still deaths, but many are prevented. That's not to say every death is not tragic - it is. But Covid-19 and 'flu are not the same thing, due to the current lack of vaccine for one of them.

Very much enjoyed the prog tonight , good to see both sldes of the eastbourne night, still cant workout how craig got off lightly, interesting to hear the phone is red hot with riders wanting to go their cant think why lol. Reading this weeks "ss" len silver says he doesnt build a team to win medals but to make money glasgow come across on the other side of the fence kent makes a profit each year where as others dont!.all in all a great advert for speedway but more important glasgow speedway long may it go on.

...also, generally, on the whole, women are hairier than men....... but only on the hole

Same here, just had it the once. I'm never ill, rarely get a cold but went down with flu around ten years ago and it knocked me for six. A very uncomfortable week or so in bed, the one thing I do remember, (and am never allowed to forget) was when it was at it's peak, after finally getting in a vaguely comfortable position in bed, I needed a wee. The en-suite loo was about a dozen steps away, but it may as well of been in Ulan Batar, the way I felt. I knew I had to move, but didn't want to or felt I could. You become a little delirious with flu and your thought processes go out the window and I seriously considered just peeing in the bed. I didn't, I hasten to add, I compromised and managed half the steps and peed on the bathroom floor....

Crikey I haven’t had that since I was a kid! Used to love a bit of chocolate custard

Gentlemen please, i'm about to have my dinner

I spoke to a friends wife yesterday who is a Death Registrar at a hospital. I asked her the question, if a person was knocked down by a lorry and killed and the autopsy showed they were carrying the virus would he be included as a Covid death. The answer was yes.

Indeed... the reality is, the vast majority of deaths appear to be from those who were 'self isolating'.

Not as arbitrary as keeping the whole population isolated and the economy stalled without a compelling reason.

As everyone else has said, very difficult to choose between them and I'm also sure I would come up with a different answer tomorrow, but for now, I'll go with: 1. Nigel Boocock (perhaps remembering him from an older era than some here), 2. Malcolm Simmons, 3. Eric Boocock, 4. John Louis, 5. Ray Wilson, 6. Martin Ashby, 7. Terry Betts.

Difficult one Sid. Mine would be - Ray Wilson, Terry Betts, Malcolm Simmons, John Louis, Martin Ashby, Eric Boocock & Nigel Boocock...but then again!

Please put the Q&A onto the website. I enjoyed the video of the NICE 2v Challenge, just wish I had got to see it live.

Hi, I did a live Q and A on Thursday before our showing of the NICE 2v Challenge (still available to watch on our website) - if you want to see the Q and A session its available on our FB page - if people dont use FB and would like to see it I will put it on to our Website. Many thanks, and please keep safe Barry

Neither is Ferguson going by his dubious record of failed 'modelling'. We are the experiment imo, not Sweden. I don't think people are grasping the catastrophic financial and social implications of this lockdown...

Once a tool always a tool. And i am being kind.

Might be a nice bloke, might have methanol in his veins, Scunny is a decent track although poorly supported numbers wise . As the head man of our Sport though and on his record as Vice Chairman he was and still is way out of his depth. No marketing ideas, no vision, no charisma, look at the Scunthorpe programme (a joke) website (an embarassment) social media ( non existant ) and then compare with Barry Bishop, Lee Kilby, Peter Faceena and a few other Promoters and the likes of Rob Painter GB man Sport is cooked with "dumb down Godfrey" in charge. Time for an Independent professional approach.

I believe the reason so many people seem to trivialise 'flu is because 'A touch of the flu' is what many will tell their boss was the reason they weren't at work yesterday. Or a football manager saying this player is missing today due to a dose of flu but they're back playing a few days later. Of course in both cases they've had a cold but feel the need to pep it up a bit. A cold can be unpleasant but is nowhere near as horrible or debilitating as a real dose of flu. Only this afternoon on the increasingly hysteria driven 5 Live a virologist when comparing influenza and Covid 19 dismissed flu as a virus that makes you feel bad for a few days but you're well after five days - clearly someone who's never had 'flu. Many simply won't believe that 'the trivial' little illness that they use to pull a sickie really can be a killer. It's just a spot of flu, right?

Enjoyed that, seems like a professionally run club and good luck to them. I might pay a visit whenever the sport starts again. A long way from Kentish Town though!

Berwick v Lakeside

Yes thanks, bought a pack of 60 rolls online before it all kicked off. Sheer luck, but would swop it all to have a days fishing

Chocolate pudding with chocolate custard by any chance!

There are ladies on this forum too! (just in case any of the sisters are offended!).

I was just discussing some of this with friends in our WhatsApp group. Is it something that would help put things into more perspective, and show us how many ‘extra’ deaths there are each day due to the virus? Using the 500,000 total, that’s an average number of deaths per day of 1,370. They are announcing the number of Covid-19 related deaths at e.g. 900 each day – but what is that in relation to the overall total of that particular day? Was the number of deaths that day 1,370 + 900 = 2,270? Probably not, but neither is it likely that the number of people passing away from a condition not Covid-19 related will have fallen considerably too much lower than 1,370. (is there a figure to hand of by how many the average had fallen before 5 April this year v. the last 5 years?) So it is most likely somewhere between the two, but where between? However, given that we are being told many of those passing away had underlying conditions, would it be fair to assume that some of those 900 people who sadly died that day from or associated with Covid-19 would have died anyway from another condition. Not necessarily on that particular day, but not too far into the future. Maybe the talk of the ‘underlying conditions’ is giving some folks a false sense of security – those flouting the social distancing advice for instance. Would it, then, help hammer home the point of how this affecting us all also releasing the overall total of deaths, and how many higher this is than the average number of deaths ‘expected’ each day based on the 1,370 figure?

Considering the loyal following that speedway has and the tendency of the supporters to be keen on stats and statistics I am surprised a game like football manager has never really taken off. I appreciate that the sport will never have the following of Moto GP or FIFA on various consoles but I believe a Speedway game in the Football Manager format could of worked and be well received. The mobile game Speedway Challenge has a lot of the graphics and ideas right. Purchase bikes, equipment, vans etc but if you could train and develop the riders that would be an excellent improvement.

Great you are back WK hope you are well my friend.!!!!

Just arrived with this months"backtrack" off to a quiet beach nearby where no one goes to sit on a bench and read in peace .

Agree WTG Sadly there’s no way speedway or many other events will take place this year but careful you will be accused of being a doom and gloom merchant. The big issue is when the Covid19 infection rate significantly drops off and the government look to easing the lockdown, which is clearly still weeks if not months away, allowing sports to resume will be very low on the agenda as the country’s health experts will not want large gatherings of people closely grouped together for fear of a second outbreak. Ok speedway only attracts a very small number of supporters but I believe social distancing and limits on crowds will be with us, in some form, for a considerable time to come.

These pale into comparison to the numbers still going to work, cramming onto the tube and going to supermarkets.

If you are right I am more than pleased hear that ie less than 250,000. I heard the high figure of 250,000 when it was first mooted about "herd immunity". Oh Yes! if we could have protected the VE ( and me ! ) and limited it to 20,000 deaths. Hallelujah!! Now that someone from my church gets my essential medication, I have no intention of going out for 4 - 6 weeks ( or as long as my food stocks last! ). Just a constitutional in the park behind my flat every day. Rain or shine.

That's it for this year.

I was at the local Turkish supermarket earlier and it was all very strict there. I was very impressed.

“Death wish”? You are perpetuating a myth While people sunbathing in public parks may quite rightly be criticised for not following government guidelines, they are almost certainly not passing on the virus to each other, let alone being guilty of having a “death wish”. Contact is much closer in a supermarket and yet that is not a “death wish”.

All media should be handed over to the people that do Glasgow's... they're on a different level

If refunds are not given it would be one of the biggest mistakes the sport has made. Fans would be turned off the sport at a time when they are needed most.

Totally agree with DC2. Can't we all accept that Covid-19 is a variant of Flu - IT IS and that's irrefutable. Can't we all accept that if normal flu was reported in the same way as Covid-19 there would be far more incidences of normal flu reported. Can't we all accept though that it's a particularly virulent strain for those that develop pneumonia (or similar complications) and that death rates amongst that small percentage are a lot higher than other flu strains but that as Covid 19 has global attention and been reported differently it is clearly a bigger danger to susceptible groups. Can we all accept that 95% of the population could have it and either not know or have very minor short term symptoms but that 5% could develop worse symptoms of which a yes undetermined but significant number could die a very painful death with little than can currently be done to save them.

You've been given the facts and their official source. "My wife says" is not a fact. The Office of National Statistics is fact. It's time you grew up.

As also explained on the other thread.. flu is not the killer by itself, although it does account for the deaths listed by DC2 above. The biggest issue is, flu can develop into pneumonia. In 2017 2.6 million.. thats MILLION people died from pneumonia worldwide. 800,000 of those where CHILDREN aged under 9. One THIRD of those cases developed from FLU. So you can add onto the figures solely attributed to flu a further 850,000 or so that develop into pneumonia. Now how does this fit into Covid-19? It's reported that in almost ALL serious cases of Covid-19, it has caused pneumonia.. (Sound familiar?). However... when they die, it's not reported as pneumonia but as Covid-19.. or 'complications from Covid-19'. The reality is, with both flu and Covid-19 in the overwhelming majority of cases you get over it fine... it's when they develop into pneumonia you have the problem. The problem is that Covid-19 cases developing into pneumonia are on TOP of the normal flu cases developing into pneumonia... which of course can contribute to overloading the health systems.

Normally I’m no fan of BWitcher’s heavy handed debating technique but I’m amazed that he is being as patient with you lot as he is. The comparison with flu is perfectly valid. They’re both contagious viral infections that kill thousands across the world. Flu kills 290,000 to 650,000, while Covid has so far killed 100,000. And that’s despite a vaccine existing for flu! If as with Covid there were no vaccine would flu kill 6.5 million or 66 million? Next, spl77, the death rate. You don’t get it by comparing deaths with closed cases, or even with all confirmed cases; you have to compare it with the total number of infected people (which most experts think is at least 10 times the number of confirmed cases). That’s why the experts think the Covid death rate is no more than 1%, despite it currently appearing to be 5% to 10% when calculated against confirmed cases in some countries.

If there's one sport that's used to working in the dark and not knowing, it's speedway.

Just my opinion but Prague has no chance of going ahead in mid June.

BARSBY, Charles Robert (Charlie) Born: April 29, 1930, Lowesby, Leicestershire, England.* Charlie was an exciting and occasionally wild riding performer who devoted the whole of his racing career to his local club, Leicester. He started his career at a Wilf Jay Training School near Chesterfield and had practice rides at Sheffield before making his debut for the ‘Hunters’ in April 1952. Once established in the side he cemented his place with a string of heart warming shows but his hectic style upset many rival riders and fans alike. Charlie’s best season came in 1956 when he finished with an average of 6.27 points per match, a figure which put him third in the ‘Hunters’ averages behind Ken McKinlay and Gordon McGregor and included twelve paid double figure scores. That winter he travelled for a racing season in Australia but suffered a fractured skull in a track accident and a combination of the recovery from the injury along with the fact that Leicester were now a top flight club meant his scoring never reached the same levels again. Charlie managed to retain his immense popularity at Blackbird Road and retired after ten years with the club had seen him make 239 league and cup appearances. 1952 Leicester NL2 44 92 82 18 100 4.35 1953 Leicester NL2 36 138 178 22 200 5.80 1954 Leicester NL2 20 74 87 10 97 5.24 1955 Leicester NL2 34 143 158 26 184 5.15 1956 Leicester NL2 32 169 225 40 265 6.27 1957 Leicester NL 19 69 49 17 66 3.83 1958 Leicester NL 12 43 37 9 46 4.28 1959 Leicester NL 12 48 40 11 51 4.25 1960 Leicester NL 19 57 51 13 64 4.49 - 1961 Leicester NL 11 39 40 8 48 4.92

There will be no grand prixs this year so do not bother booking any

Precisely. The mechanics of a race are actually quite simple to model. I put together something simple in a hour using Excel with each rider having six attributes: Gating Passing Speed Team riding Reliability Aggression The main challenge is getting the weighting of the attributes correct and how much randomness to introduce so that results are predictable, but not obvious.